eduggs

I don't think you should focus so much on ptype interpreted accumulation maps (e.g., 3" at ALB). They can be very misleading. Yes recent NAM runs had a slightly stronger and longer-lived primary surface low. But there is broad inter-model agreement on the synoptic setup. The difference between 3 and 8 inches of snow could come down to a degree or two in the warm layer.

This looks like a pretty typical SWFE to me. The SWF refers to mid-levels, not surface features. The high doesn't "retreat" because the mid-level shortwave approaching through the midwest is dampening as it approaches, so the area of strongest upper level convergence stays in approximately the same place. This upper level convergence (converging height lines) results in an accumulation of air aloft, which is forced to descend - hence high surface pressure. The dampening wave allows a quicker weakening of the surface low and prevents a complete torch. But if you look at h5, the shortwave is traversing Lake Ontario and northern NY on Friday. That's classic SWFE, and why we have a mix event on tap while areas north and east will be snow.

It didn't correct as much as you think. You are talking 3rd party interpreted snowfall accumulations, not model output. In reality, the modeled column cooled a degree or two near 800mb. The overall depiction is still the same - weakening primary in WNY associated with a dampening shortwave, transferring to weak coastal SLP. We don't have a strong mid-level low or a bombing coastal low - just a modest southerly mid-level flow and weak to moderate surface CAD. That sounds like a recipe for a broad area of mixed precipitation. Snow vs. sleet will come down to whether it's +0.5 or +2 in the warm layer and whether dynamical cooling can partially compensate. With a strong primary I would always take the warmest solution. The NAM often leads in cases like this - in fact as others have said, sleet frequently ends up further north than modeled. And I wouldn't be shocked if BGM and ALB mix for a time. But in this case the warm surge is muted, so I'm not so sure. That's why I'm not completely writing off significant snow (i.e., 4"+) in Sussex, Orange, and Putnam counties.

Anybody ignoring the NAM is wishcasting. The GFS and UK have the same basic idea. This could still go either way along the area of sharp snow gradient. But it's hard to see how the mid-level feature in WNY and southerly flow near 800mb doesn't push sleet pretty far up the HV. North of I-84 and east of the Hudson seem to have the best shot of damning in just enough cold air.

I like the southern Catskills to the CT-MA border for the jackpot zone. But if the model consensus is a hair too warm, you might be golden where you're at. Max QPF may end up just south of where the max snow is currently forecasted. If that lines up with a snow column it's double digits. I'm rooting for you because your area is due. If and when you mix with sleet you may not change over completely since mid-level warming will be weakening over time and there may be a dynamical cooling element to ptype with a shallow layer above freezing.

It's not like it hasn't snowed. There have been a good number of 1-2" events. But we always want more and bigger. I know you enjoyed your two solid events, but I bet you were still a little jealous of LI, SE CT, and SNJ when they got 12+.

Almost the entire state of MA is 6+ (10:1) on every model. So jealous. It's been almost 13 months since I saw 6" of snow here in Morris County. For some areas this will be #3 or 4 this winter alone. Spoiled fckers.

So the GFS and UK were essentially unchanged from 18z and 12z respectively and the CMC ticked south relative to 12z. Not a lot of movement overall. A model blend seems reasonable.

The GFS at 0z looks a lot like 18z. There are the usual minor localized differences, but that's mostly noise. I'm happy it didn't trend worse. This can still shift more wintry. Model consensus has NYC right on the threshold... a shift colder and this is a significant wintry event. A shift warmer, and it's a minor nuisance event. The question for the northern suburbs is does this become a major snow event or mostly mix? And the question for the southern burbs is whether there is any impactful wintry precip. at all. There's not much sense in guessing, but I'll do it anyway. I think warning snows stay north of I-84 with a lot of sleet between there and I-80. I think frozen accumulations decrease rapidly south of there with minimal impact south of the latitude of Raritan Bay.

The RGEM actually cools the mid-level during the event Thurs morning as the event progresses and a SLP develops well south of LI. The strengthening damning signature is evident. But by the time the column is below freezing, the dendritic growth zone is unsaturated and we are left with freezing drizzle. It looks like the RGEM goes to +3 or +4 at the warmest. If that were closer to +1 or even +2, I would have more confidence this ends up isothermal.

Kind of a chicken or egg thing, no? The strength and position of the high is dictated by the upper levels. So a model will tend to show shifts in height field that correspond to changes in surface pressure. But that doesn't mean that the high is causing the change - just that the surface features are happening in tandem with changes in the other surface and upper level features.

Falling snow that can be walked and played in is obviously more fun than previously fallen, ice-encrusted snow. We're all hoping the snow line isn't too far north. But there is not currently a lot of guidance that doesn't have it pretty far north by daybreak. Fingers crossed for a cold-south trend.

That's a little disingenuous. You know as well as anybody else that most people are asleep at 4am. I agree parts of Putnam could get something like 4 inches of snow. If I had to choose right now I would take the under. But I'm hoping that area gets hammered so I can get 4"

There might be a little snow for NENJ, Putnam, Westchester etc. But will anybody be awake to see it? Sure looks like IP or ZR by daybreak except well north of the metro.

Nice band from LI to PHL to BWI. Wish I was in it.

Near Morristown. Lots of places overperformed a little this morning, which is great! But locally we were a little bit of a snow-minimum, and it has only been flurries and light wet snow during the day, which is a little disappointing. On the season we are something like 0 for 8 in terms of hit ratio for a moderate or better snow event. It just hasn't been our year in Morris County.

Sun shining through the clouds now. Snow melting off the cars. A little warner than I expected this morning.

Stuck in subsidence all day I just want to experience moderate or better snowfall intensity during the daytime at least once this winter! Looks like about 2" on the grass near Morristown.

I'm seeing 4 and 5 inch totals from Warren Co. NJ and parts of EPA. Nice! I guess the good banding was to the west overnight?

I wake up to flurries and a shredded radar while NYC to BOS is dumping This winter... just the same story over and over again At least I got a few inches of paste. Looks really nice.

Not a very good 0z except for maybe the GFS op. The EC could still revive this a little.

A little better than 18z. But still a far cry from last night's 6z or even 12z really. Two steps back, one step forward.

3rd run in a row the RGEM has shifted weaker/east. Not surprising considering the wrapped up coastal hugger on the Canadian at 12z.

The GFS is following the multi-model trend with the stronger northern wave north of MN, but not losing sharpness at the base of the trof. That's what we need.

The 0z ICON is worse for everyone regardless of what the fantasy snow maps showed. Just cycle H5. And trends in the ICON matter. More times than not they match the other models, even if the overall depiction is slightly less accurate on average.