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eduggs

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Everything posted by eduggs

  1. eduggs
    There could be flakes in the air on Thurs, Fri, and/or Sat from 3 different mechanisms. After the arctic front passes on Thurs, it should be cold enough everywhere. If the ground gets dusted white you will feel better about winter. The Sat. shortwave probably will only trigger flurries, but it's well positioned with a weak offshore SLP to potentially initiate an inverted trof (norlun) especially for eastern areas/SNE.
  2. eduggs
    Unfortunate wave timing on the models right now. The southern stream shortwaves for Friday and Sunday are perfectly timed with a northern stream shortwave to suppress the flow out ahead of them and prevent amplification. On the GFS, the subsequent wave on Wednesday instead has a little ridging in the northern stream out ahead of it and easily amplifies into a cutter. We should avoid simplistic black and white statements like the Pacific is somehow preventing snowstorms. For each of the next several waves, a subtle and random shift in the height field could or could have allowed snow for us. We've always had wave interference. It's why it doesn't snow every week in our region. This is our climo. When the pieces fit together, it will snow. Same as it's always been.
  3. eduggs
    6z ECM has 0.10 to 0.15 liquid on Friday for our area. Not much support. The Canadian/GEPS shows a weak Norlun signature on Sat. morning. Weak overrunning can sometimes trigger precipitation much further north than anticipated... but virga is the likely result.
  4. eduggs
    0z ECM gets about 1" of snow up to NYC on Friday evening. It looks cold enough to accumulate most areas if snow does make it that far north. Not much support at this point, however. The ECM is the northern outlier.
  5. eduggs
    FWIW, you only had to go about 30 miles north of NYC today to find good snow. It never got above freezing in most of Putnam County, NY including all the way down at river/sea level. This was a cold airmass for that area (before, during, and after), which isn't typically a snowy location. New England got kind of boned with this storm because of the particular upper level progression and low level flow/coastal fronts. But this was kind of a fluke.
  6. eduggs
    I like your hint of optimism. The modeled longwave trof position and angle look very favorable for almost 10 days. Wave after wave diving from the Pac NW into the central US... just need one or two to find a gap and amplify. I think it's the kind of "pattern" that you'd want in December to try to string a few together and build a pack. Odds are usually against us, but I don't hate the look.
  7. eduggs
    Seems like there's plenty to track if you like model watching. There's a chance of snow showers or maybe even squalls on Thursday with an arctic front then an outside chance of light snow friday and then basically a trackable wave every two days thereafter. It also looks cold at least through early next week. No slam dunks but this winter feels different so far than the past few. Snowstorm are always uncommon in these parts so we'll take what we can get.
  8. eduggs
    Latest HRRR pretty good for the boundary area of eastern Orange, northern Rockland, southern Dutchess etc... keeps ticking ever so slightly southeast... we'll see... areas to our south seem to have mixed or changed over in concert with the warmer models.
  9. eduggs
    Currently light snow in Putnam County NY where I am at the moment. Snow took a while to get going.
  10. eduggs
    Mesos have been ticking slightly colder in NNJ and SENY, but the HRRR and 3KM NAM ptype graphics both look too "cold" in EPA. More mix (IP/ZR) than modeled seems to be being reported further north. It might mix out to snow at times, but the mix line looks fairly far north on radar (matching obs).
  11. eduggs
    Two things I've noticed while looping recent HRRR runs... the model has been playing catchup for 6 or 7 runs on temperatures overnight. It has been steadily correcting colder throughout the Northeast. And it hasn't been correcting (i.e., trading off) dewpoints to compensate. It's a cold airmass. The second thing that is well depicted is the strong surge of warmth/higher dewpoints coming from the SSE right into our area during the day tomorrow. That should warm the boundary layer in a hurry. That suggests maybe there could be a quick burst of snow/sleet (surprisingly heavy?) to just west of I-95 tomorrow morning with snow then changing to rain pretty far north of the area as the day progresses.
  12. eduggs
    T and Td are expected the surge towards dawn as the storm arrives. But it can't hurt to start off from the lowest possible point. Even a degree or two could help. I also want to counter the notion that we don't have enough cold air for snow and the idea that "if only it were January..." The problem isn't lack of cold or time of year. The problem is the mid-level shortwave is progressive and too far north. This could happen any time of year.
  13. eduggs
    At 8pm, dew points are in the teens throughout the area with temperatures mostly in the 30s and some 20s in outlying and radiationally favored spots. That's a decently cold antecedent airmass.
  14. eduggs
    The 18z RRFS is a touch cooler along the rain/snow line in EPA and NNJ, which allows some of those areas to claw back a little bit of snow that was "lost" at 12z. The 18z HRRR might have been a hair cooler too. A small SE shift here at the end would be huge. But realistically this will be a nowcast situation for areas right along the boundary. The mesos being so warm at 12z was concerning.
  15. eduggs
    ICON and RRFS are south of 12z
  16. eduggs
    Sleet and rain now. But the surface temperature continues to drop. 34.7 now down from a morning high of 37.4.
  17. eduggs
    It's a little unusual to see snow accumulation on trees, grass, and car tops in the middle of the day and snow fog/ low visibilities with surface temperatures between 35F and 37F. And outside of a few bursts, the intensity hasn't been all that great either. This is an overperforming airmass.
  18. eduggs
    Snowy morning at 500ft in Morris County. Nice surprise coating! The bigger surprise is that the temperature has dropped almost 2.5 degrees since 10am allowing the trees to become increasingly frosted. Feels very festive.
  19. eduggs
    Chicago has had 13 straight hours of snow and moderate snow for the last 5, with more to come and temperatures in the 20s. Jealous. For reference, Chicago averages about as much snow annually as the interior Lower Hudson valley.
  20. eduggs
    5 days ago there was barely the hint of a ripple of a shortwave across the central US... And a big trof along the west coast.
  21. eduggs
    There's more going on than whether it's amped or flat. There's the location and amplitude of the shortwave, location of vorticity advection, the tilt of the trof, and its evolution over time. Some runs over the past few days have been "amped" with a sharp shortwave and associated vortmax taking a northerly route near the Great Lakes into NYS (e.g., 0z 28th GFS) and others have been "ampled" but with the shortwave taking a more southerly track from AR through KY to VA (e.g., 06z 27th ECM). Other runs have been a little flat initially but amped up late (e.g., 0z 29th ECM) or initially amped only to quickly flatten (various CMC and UK runs). This combination of variables has led to a spectrum of outcomes that defy a simple binary description.
  22. eduggs
    Not a fan of 12z. Noticable shift towards the GFS-like emphasis of vorticity near the Great Lakes and less in the South. This leads to quick warming of the boundary layer. This was observed across all guidance except the GFS, which shifted a touch towards the consensus. The duration has also been shortening. This is now looking like a relatively quick hitting 6-8 hours of precipitation. A few days ago is was stretched out across as much as 18-24 hours.
  23. eduggs
    The GFS has mixing issues in areas that are north of the steady precip. shield on the ECM. Contrarily, the 12z EPS is west of the 18z GEFS with the precip. sheild. If you believe in the predictive value of ensembles you might think the GFS will shift south in future cycles. We're still 3.5 days out, so inter-model variability is expected. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
  24. eduggs
    The ECM is a strange solution. Its precip. field is well southeast of the 12z EPS and the shortwave is less impressive than 12z, but it still rapidly deepens the SLP into the 970mbs near the benchmark. The ECM family and the GFS are not close. Much more overlap between the ensemble means.
  25. eduggs
    Everything looks relatively encouraging for I-95 NW except the GFS. It's insistent on a packet of vorticity and associated sharp shortwave tracking from MO through OH through northern NY. Most other guidance is AR through KY through PA or SNJ. If a shortwave tracks that far NW it will be very hard to keep snow anywhere along the coastal plain. From memory I feel like if any model sees this kind of shortwave tracking near the Lakes with a coastal SLP, it ends up verifying.
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