eduggs
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Everything posted by eduggs
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Good call on the low topped. HRRR had this largely drying out, which matched radar returns. Turns out not the case.
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Yup, pretty good squall coming through central Morris Co.. Dense, small flakes, 0.75mi, everything dusted up pretty quickly.
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Nice. The band looks pretty solid into Westchester Co. too. I'll know soon how much the radar is seeing further SW.
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Step 2 - Get at least 1 other model on board Step 3 - Get it inside 5 days. Then the serious model watching begins.
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Yeah I was hoping they would hold together but the line has largely dissipated. Still could be a few squalls here and there.
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Fwiw, the Jan. 7 system was essentially a Miller A as well. Of course the Miller classification system is clearly oversimplified.
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The 0z GFS would work. Powerful and severely tilted s/w trof fighting low upstream heights and a kicker on its heels and it still pulls it off. But barely I hope we move towards this kind of full east coast system in the coming days. But man, that trof better be impressive.
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Hmm. The daily climate report shows 0.31". https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JFK&product=CLI&format=CI&version=8&glossary=1&highlight=off
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True. Central and eastern LI got a little more QPF. The NYC area was the approximate 0.4" line.
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The 0z mostly just looks slower with the progression.
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Some did, other didn't. Also our local jackpot zone was mostly 0.4 to maybe 0.5 liquid. So these areas got really lucky with the ratios. Not knocking it, it was a fun event. But it was not widespread.
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I'd feel better if we saw more waffling in the models... windshield wiper style. That would seemingly indicate higher uncertainty and a chance that things break more favorably. But that's not what we're seeing recently. Just slow, steady trends away from us. There will be snowstorms, but probably for others. Well I guess beyond day 7 or so we're still very much in the game. It's just not worth tracking out in fantasy land.
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I am using the ensembles. They have been trending in the wrong direction with a low hit ratio. There is still a chance for Fri, Sun, Tue etc, but the likelihood for each has been decreasing with every run. The shortwaves are too closely spaced. We need a pretty significant model error somewhere. It's an explosive pattern, so we can score big if something changes. But right now the odds are against us.
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We are now getting some run to run consistency for (locally) terrible OP runs on all guidance through the medium range.
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Nah. Downeast and New Brunswick.
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The huge error bars out past the 25th or so mean it's not really worth looking at. Almost anything is possible out there in the LR.
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I'm most scared of ensemble member 19. But I think something like 10, 11, or 16 is actually possible.
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We've had the pants tent response to long range ensemble mean maps multiple times now dating back 2 weeks. Ultimately day 10+ is likely to regress slightly towards climo as we move closer in time. But at least it's a good indication our favorable window won't be short lived. Heck this upcoming week's ensemble mean looks pretty promising. Wonder how that's gonna work out?
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The enthusiasm on this subforum just collapsed. Personally my pessimism is at a high for the season. Locally we are approaching a year since the last significant snow event. The spread in the ensembles offers some hope, but the run to run and intermodel continuity in the medium range is disheartening.
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Day 5 on the Euro is sad. Such a potent looking wave but it will be a struggle to get it close enough to us with that suppressive Atlantic height field.
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Or no ice nucleation or only very low level lift resulting in drizzle.
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Take your chances with Friday. Hit or miss, the modeled Ocean storm is already robust enough to interfere with the followup wave.
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Big shift south on the CMC for the weekend. This could be painful. Still time though.
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It has support.
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It's not worth looking at surface charts out past 168hr. H5 and H3 maybe, but still probably not. Ensembles are okay out a little further I guess. But LR surface maps will imprint you with expectation and lead to disappointment.
