eduggs
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Everything posted by eduggs
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Monthly temperature averages are not very useful for local snowfall prediction because storm and temperature evolution are so variable on daily time steps. But the map does support a general continuation of the mean storm track being to our west.
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Nice to see Central Park slant-sticked its way to a local jackpot! Congrats.
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I think NYC has a shot at getting shut out for the whole winter. They'll probably record a coating tonight or even Friday with the arctic front. But otherwise the next 2 weeks look bleak. And after mid-Feb, even normal climo starts to become locally hostile for snow. As bad as it's been in SNE, it's been even worse to the SW.
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I'm going T - coating But I really hope some surprise banding sets up to drop an inch in a few spots. We've got some rare near freezing surface temps and don't wanna waste them.
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Maybe the City finally gets a dusting with the arctic front on Friday.
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We're also 35 years older and feel the cold more. If I were 17 and being active outside in 50 degree weather I'd be wearing a t-shirt too.
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Pretty big jump north on the 0z NAM. But precipitation still doesn't get north of MD. Not surprised to see the NAM make noticeable shifts, particularly after 48 hours. It's more in line with the GFS now. It would take a significant change in timing of the waves to get this much further north. The southern wave has to be further out ahead of the suppressive northern stream. These kinds of miracles don't seem to happen in the modern modeling regime. Credit to model development.
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I really hope it happens as it would be nice to wake up to a little snow on the ground even though most of us will be sleeping during any falling flakes. Temps should be at or slightly below freezing during that period, which is a plus. On the negative side, models show only weak lift in the snow growth zone. The UK, ICON, and RGEM have a little snow, although the RGEM has been shifting southward for a few runs. The EC and GFS, as well as their ensembles, are suspiciously dry.
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0z GEFS and 18z EPS are essentially dry through next weekend. Hard to go against it. With tightly spaced Isohypses, fast flow, and an extremely unfavorable and suppressive orientation of the approaching PV, there doesn't seem to be much wiggle room to allow precipitation. I guess predawn Wed still offers some fleeting hope of a coating. But this marks yet another week of virtually nothing to track.
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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope
eduggs replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Gonna have to stay up late. -
The 18z GFS was the first model run I've seen in a while to get a little piece of northern stream energy to a neutral position with respect to the "southern stream" wave. In general, if a wave closer to the equator is downstream (i.e., to the east in N. Hemisphere) of another wave closer to the pole, the longwave trof will amplify. Conversely, if the poleward wave is downstream of the other wave, it will dampen (i.e., suppression). So any shortwave, even a tiny packet of vorticity that gets to a neutral or ideally upstream position with respect to the southern wave will serve to amplify the waves and raise heights downstream. The GFS moved a little bit in this direction for the Thurs-Fri "event", which resulted in some precipitation into the mid-Atl. The 18z RGEM also looks to have moved slightly in this direction with a weak wave over Kansas at 84hr slightly more aligned with the southern stream wave near the TX panhandle. This is longshot territory, but still trackable IMO.
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Weak waves in fast flow are difficult to model. The 0z RGEM might break the snowless streak for NYC, but overall looks very minor. Rest of the period looks suppressed on all guidance.
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Barely better, and not remotely close. The GEFS also lost a few outliers that were bringing precipitation to the northern mid-Atl. and SNE. The mean was a hair better than 12z, however for that time period.
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I'm still very skeptical of this. We're getting a few hits here and then on the odd model run or individual ensemble member. But the CMC and EC are largely unsupportive right now. When there's precipitation temperatures look marginal, especially for urban areas. As soon as it's cold enough it may be hard to get precipitation to our latitude until after the height field resets. Then it's likely back to cutter city.
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The problem is looking beyond 7-10 days. Obviously small initial variations will lead to large model differences at that range.
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Summerlike dew points. Outside shot of someone hitting 60?
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I'm skeptical. Show me data to back that up and I'd change my mind. Otherwise to me it's like stock trading. Most people think they are better than random chance. But it's perception over reality.
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Nailed it
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Well anybody forecasting regionally specific weather 10+ days out will either be wrong or lucky.
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Tough winter so far for the long-range "pattern" sniffers. The 7-10 day period feels like either a Maine or Carolinas jackpot situation. It's hard to see how we thread the needle based on where things stand now. The cold-side snow zones look narrow. Roll the dice and see how it plays out.
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It's probably about right. Something like 41/26 with a 36F wet bulb.
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One cold day - December 24 - is basically keeping us out of 2nd place.
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Not happening. NYC and surrounding suburbs are destined for their 17th consecutive winter rain event without any measurable snowfall by the end of this run.
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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope
eduggs replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Stop looking at clown maps. And ask someone who knows what they are talking about. Modeling has been excellent this year. Noticeably better than even 5 years ago. I've been tracking for 30 years and the steady improvements have been noteworthy. 3rd party vendor clown maps, which don't reflect raw model data, exaggerate surface weather and run to run changes. Upper level features are what should be focused on. And this year, mid-range models have time and time again correctly locked onto a particular upper level setup in the 5-7 day range and generally made only minor adjustments thereafter. Consider how few fake fantasy snowstorms we've had inside 168 hours. That was always a feature of previous seasons. -
Nothing of interest for as far as the models can reasonably see for the 55th day in a row or something like that. I vaguely remember some threats of interest in late November. The mid-range modeling has been really good. Unfortunately that has meant really boring tracking.
