eduggs

Well one run of the GFS impacted us with the Ocean storm. And several model runs, particularly on the GFS, got plowable snow to NYC with the SNJ event. But I agree, guidance consistently showed those not impacting us. My point is that storms don't always trend NW, especially once models are locked in.

Feb is 4 weeks long. There will be good stretches and bad. Personally I think Spring comes early and we better make the best of these next few weeks, especially near the coast.

The Nova Scotia-New Brunswick Ocean storm never came. The Delmarva, southern NJ storm never came. Plenty of storms don't come NW. If there's no strong, amplifying shortwave, it's not coming.

I didn't think a year like 2015 was possible for that area before it happened. Now it's happening again. I doubt it will finish as bad as that year, but you never know.

I'm just sick of the long range pattern talk in general. This week is a perfect example. The 500mb height anomalies for this whole week scream snowstorm potential, maybe even multiple events. But as always, snowstorms are determined by details at a finer scale.

I'm pretty sick of hearing about the teles. They are weakly predictive of local snowfall events. Correlated yes, but weakly predictive. And in addition, the error associated with predicting their values is high. So we are left discussing highly uncertain and weakly predictive indices.

Spot on. Horrible shadowing off Mt. Equinox and the southern Greens. Totally different story 10 miles south of Hoosick Falls. Lots of relatively unknown microclimates.

When you're near the coast, a lot of the TV weather snow maps give the impression that whatever city is far off to the NW frequently gets the most snow.

ALB does fine overall, but is one of the warmest and least snowy places in that region. It's much snowier to the east along the Rensselaer Plateau and to the west in the Helderbergs. Lake effect snow belts are not far west and the southern Adirondacks are just go the north. ALB is also relatively warm for that latitude. Only the Hudson river towns to the south are warmer and less snowy.

It was better there than 12z. And the GFS actually wasn't much better. ALB isn't a big snow town. Gets downsloped on almost any wind direction and very low elevation.

I bet those eastern members all have relative minimum surface pressure centers in the same northern MD cluster that are about 0.1mb lower than where the L is placed.

If basically this outcome prevails, it might be time to finally give the mid-range models their due. The GFS led the way like 6 days out - with the CMC, UK, Euro quickly following suit - showing this storm pretty far west in contrast to the ensembles, analogs, and synoptic analysis. Maybe the models aren't trash.

During satellite era.

Yes please on the 2 day snow event shown on the CMC. But I would gladly take the shorter duration GFS storm for next Sunday. Either way, weekend potential is there.

NAM, RGEM, ICON all pretty locked so far at 12z. Meteorologically interesting but hideous for snow enthusiasts. Maybe we can score a few intense snowsqualls for on Monday.

Looking good for Cleveland and Toronto to get the goods. Sorry Ottawa, dryslot.

It looks more like a Miller B to me. Storm drops south through the Plains/Midwest, then east, then turns the corner. Primary into north GA redevelops to the coast. Then that SLP moves nnw into SPA and redevelops again. I thought Jan. 7 was a Miller A because it did not drop south through the midwest, formed in the Southeast and moved up the coast will very little evidence of redevelopment. I dislike the Miller classification system. I think it's way too oversimplified. It was developed in the 1940s, before the satellite era, when meteorology was in its infancy. Storms come in so many shapes and sizes. Labeling them A and B does not do justice. Even then I think most people get it wrong.

Shortwaves don't usually phase so perfectly with a trailing wave. We've rooted for something like that countless times, and it has rarely happened for us. It's almost as if the bowling ball can adjust its speed and location to get into perfect position for its buddy.

The cupboard is bare; the pipeline is dry. We just a major snowstorm (for some) now likely followed by two anomalously deep trofs with strong associated SLP. This was our shot.

Could be some wrap around snow showers on Monday

Weirdly warmish January night tonight. Temps are around or slightly above freezing despite mostly clear conditions and light winds.

It does seem like it has been very consistent. But I bet people in eastern OH, WPA, and the southern tier of NY have been feeling like the models have been waffling a lot.

The GFS is nearly identical with the surface pressure field. What is with the obsession with the placement of the L on the map? Do people really not understand what surface pressure means and how there can be several relative minimums?

Base lodge is about 1700', top of lift elevation is about 3200'. Top of Hunter Mountain is 4039'

That's true. But I wasn't even thinking of mountain tops... I was more thinking of towns on or near highways. The town of Hunter is approx. 2000ft asl and a great place for easterly-flow coastals. That's why it's my first choice. But the area near Mt. Pocono is right off I-80 and a little closer, although only about 1200ft or so. Right now you'd have to go out to central or western PA to get into any kind of deform. So Catskills are probably the better choice.