eduggs

Looking at 700mb, 850mb, and surface QPF... members 10 and 12 fringe us. 11 and 15 are misses.

Lots of snow reports on mPing in EPA and WNJ. Can the snow showers make it east down into the lowlands...? So far the air is dry and returns are mostly dissipating. HRRR says we wait until this evening for a few brief snow showers.

Yeah maybe. But out of 51 members they're almost all misses. Of course they tend to cluster around the OP, so if the OP shifts west the EPS likely will to. But it goes to show how much further west we need this to shift.

I just checked the EPS. Very few of the individuals get precip. back to us or especially further west. Even the ones where the SLP makes a close pass are pretty limited on the western side. That's what happens if the trof develops late... which is where this looks to be heading. Eastern SNE can pull it off, but we need an explosive trof. Ironically the one EPS member that tilted earlier ended up taking the same track as last weekend that deformed in Ontario.

The JMA is nearly identical to the CMC. It lacks the resolution to show the true lowest pressure, but it's a close match aloft. And it actually lingers a little longer as it moves northeast off the Cape. Huge hit for LI and CT at least. Everyone will say it's just the JMA, but I'll take it. The more support the better. Eventually we need every model to come around.

A storm in early January has no bearing on the likelihood of a storm in February or March. Their probabilities are almost completely independent. Major snowstorms are always unlikely, by definition. But there's probably at least a 1 in 4 chance. And >4" snows can happen in almost any kind of background weather pattern.

Probably. And then we might get our best snows of the year in a "warm" pattern. Sometimes it's just random like that.

SNE will weenie out the longest because they have the best shot if this misses east. They will wishcast with the best of them and call it analysis.

A few weeks ago it was the GFS vs the world. Then the EC vs. the world. And now the CMC takes its turn. I doubt the CMC will hold up resistance as long as the others did, however. It trends to be more variable beyond 5 days. This is a clear miss east for now... but continue to monitor... unless there is a multi-model trend towards more impact.

The Euro is not close. The UK is far off, but not hopeless. GFS is a clear miss but close enough to be interesting. The CMC is nearly perfect but no wiggle room east. I feel like we're always in this position kind of hoping for a miracle.

Agreed. I expect this storm to miss east. The CMC is very sharp and amplified compared to other guidance, but it still isn't expansive with precipitation on the western quadrant. That's a red flag to me. But we haven't had that many fantasy blizzards this year, so it's fun to revel in one for a little while.

The CMC might be the best model run of the winter so far. Snow would start late Friday night and continue for almost 24 hours! Weekend snow! Very heavy snow with major accumulations region-wide. Blizzard conditions probably on LI. It stays cold with a follow-up 2-4" on Monday with an inverted trof associated with a late developing coastal low. Wow what a weenie run! My take is a miss east is favored here. The sharpness, amplitude, and orientation of the trof are very sensitive to minor changes. Eastern SNE seems to stand the best chance for significant precipitation. But seeing this huge solution means we're still in the game I think. Just gotta keep expectations in check.

Truly insane snowfall NYC east on that CMC run. Actually everyone gets heavy snow, but eastern areas are buried! It's nice to see big solutions like this, but obviously we would need a near perfect upper level evolution to get something like this. It's on the table... but so is a complete miss.

The CMC is a very powerful storm. Wow. And it deepens extremely rapidly down into the 960s at a perfect time for us. Sign me up for that solution. Could be rain for eastern sections... not sure yet.

The CMC is wild! Offshore low bends back to clobber coastal upper Mid-Atl through New England. High ceiling but low likelihood solution.

The synoptic setup looks roughly similar to a few misses we've had already this year.

You're right they did a good job. Good forecast discussions highlighting it too. So not really unexpected. But I still really enjoy localized snow events.

Too many red flags and a hostile wave interference "pattern." People will tune back in next week if the threat remains.

The 12z GFS is 12-18 hours slower than the 06z, which messes up your overlay and gives a false impression. The 12z GFS was not a clear cut improvement IMO. Some aspects were better, others worse.

Thanks for compiling these! The ~6" just north of Kitty Hawk on the Outer Banks is impressive. But my favorite reports are the random and isolated heavy snow obs from SE Mass. Unexpected mesoscale heavy snow is possibly more fun than any other weather experience.

First time I ever agree with you on anything. Starbucks ruined coffee. Not too long ago you could get a simple no fuss drip coffee for 75 cents. If you take out the sugar and cream, starbucks is the worst tasting coffee I've ever had.

So we're back to posing 200+ hour GEFS and talking about March. Point of lowest morale of the winter so far...

The pattern of results may have been common. But the weather patterns are unique. We've had a wound up southern stream blasting into a wall of confluence, another wound up northern stream wave phasing with a follow-up wave and slamming Toronto, and then a few positively to neutrally tilted, progressive northern stream trofs that fringed us or missed south. All of those could have been hits or misses depending on subtleties in the features. Our lack of snow has nothing to do with any pattern similarities to the 1980s.

Another really dry run on the GFS after tomorrow, wow.

Well the climate indices were pretty well forecast. But every day, the geopotential height fields and jet stream alignments are different. "Patterns" are loosely defined... and they don't cause snowstorms.