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eduggs

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Everything posted by eduggs

  1. eduggs
    You can tell it's not really south or east by the heavy deform from Altoona to Binghamton and the fact that I-95 is virtually snowless.
  2. eduggs
    84hr 12z NAM vs 82 hr 6z GFS have similar positioning. But the NAM looks sharper and poised for a more aggressive phase. I could see the NAM sending the SLP further west than the GFS with that look, and possibly an earlier occlusion. In any case, I didn't see a distinctly positive change. Everything has been mixed lately, with positives offset by negatives. We want something like the GFS speed with the NAM initial lower latitude. Gotta get that trof axis further east.
  3. eduggs
    The NAM is just 4-6 hrs slower than the GFS. If you overlay H5 when the lows are both near Atlanta, GA (84hr NAM, 82hr GFS), it looks like the NAM is heading towards a more aggressive phase. That would likely push the SLP and associated warm push further west.
  4. eduggs
    It would be nice to see the NAM trend east with the H5 low, not just south. It also looks to be about 6hrs slower than the GFS. If you overlay them taking the delay into account, the NAM is further south but they are similar. The NAM looks to have a hellacious phase thereafter and the trof axis is still too far west. This run was "better" but the improvements were exaggerated IMO.
  5. eduggs
    Meanwhile the CMC is snowing to Detroit and Toronto with heavy deform to Buffalo Take the GEFS trend but toss the mean.
  6. eduggs
    I think there was a little more upper level divergence (i.e., sharper, more negatively tilted trof). Since upper level divergence causes low surface pressure, there was a little more of an inland (primary) surface reflection. That can give the impression of a storm being tugged west, but it really just reflects the evolution of the upper level features.
  7. eduggs
    Yeah the GFS is kind of a wash. The H5 low was initially slightly SE or faster but it also sharpened a hair faster with less confluence in NE. It's not a hopeless look, but usually when there is a signal for a strong negative tilt you need an offshore low to prevent rain at our longitude.
  8. eduggs
    The H5 low cut just south of us unlike the past few runs. Clearly better aloft. Away from the coast might not go above 32F with that track.
  9. eduggs
    OK ICON is a good start to 0z.
  10. eduggs
    ICON first up. This model swings more unpredictably than other globals. But east is better than west at this point.
  11. eduggs
    DC is pretty far west relative to eastern MA. If the whole structure of this thing shifts east, it's still possible they get 2 feet and eastern SNE gets warm-sectored. That would be Very unlikely though.
  12. eduggs
    I know. But we've known for a while that its snowfall algorithm is crap. I think it prints out snow if any level below 700mb is below freezing. Other vendors provide better, though still dubious, snowfall estimates.
  13. eduggs
    Sandy Hook NJ is probably 95% rain on the 18z GFS. StormVista says 12+ StormVista is the champion of the clowns.
  14. eduggs
    That was the first positive shift in a while on the GFS. H5 looked much better. Northern areas could stay frozen for a while with that kind of outcome with minimal rain and dryslot. Maybe even a little light snow to end. If that trof keeps digging and the vortmax sticks its bottom out like that towards the east over the Atlantic as the trof wraps up, we could easily redevelop a surface reflection south of LI and stave off the warm sector. My hunch says this shifts back west ultimately, but I hope I'm wrong. Maybe now that the trend was arrested, ensembles might be useful again. If 0z guidance shows a similar trend we can smile.
  15. eduggs
    This time it's not a kicker, but a Fujiwara phasing buddy.
  16. eduggs
    The GFS is a little faster so far this run. That's a start. Could be good to get a little more separation from the trailing wave and maybe dig a little further SE before going nuts.
  17. eduggs
    Surface maps will fool you. Ignore there the L is placed. The isobars and precipitation are further north. H5 is more telling. Might be a touch worse than last run - hard to tell.
  18. eduggs
    FWIW I see no obvious improvement on the 18z NAM. The funny thing is, if this had been advertised as a rainy cutter for several days, we'd be pretty excited about having a good shot at a solid initial thump. The expectations game is harsh.
  19. eduggs
    I think latitude with help a lot too. Guidance is also hinting at a shadowing effect due to strong easterlies. So places with elevation or east of terrain should do better than places west of terrain.
  20. eduggs
    The EC is going to be more pain. We've had like 8 cycles of pain after 2 cycles of hope. But now that we're starting to recalibrate our expectations downward, in a day or two we can get excited again about a significant winter storm and possible 3-6" snowfall.
  21. eduggs
    It definitely looks like heavy snow to rain to dryslot right now. I could even imagine this ending up with only a brief period of rain inland and quickly to dryslot. The total duration of precipitation could end up being less than 12 hours. Someone could get 6" from the initial snow thump even with the mid-level lows cutting well inland. And that would be excellent, especially if we have some more trackable events in the near term. If instead we go glop to rain to more cold and dry with only LR threats, it will be irritating.
  22. eduggs
    I think the evolution of this storm may be highlighting a weakness of the ensembles. If several runs in a row an operational model is a far western outlier with respect to its members and then it continues to shift further west away from them, how useful are they at that stage? We've seen this clearly with the GFS/GEFS and to a similar but lesser extent with EPS and GEPS. Until the multi-run shift is halted and some kind of continuity is established, I think it could be misleading to look at the ensemble mean.
  23. eduggs
    I think the issue is the upstream wave, not the downstream trof. Right now the GFS is strengthening and deepening this trof just at the perfect moment to Fujiwara the bowling ball almost due north. I'd love to see the follow up wave significantly delayed, with a height field less conducive to phasing, or in a different location.
  24. eduggs
    What a perfect phase on the GFS between the bowling ball trof and the follow up wave. The ridging in between wave 1 and 3 just perfectly aligns, and wave 3 amplifies just ideally to wrap up the bowling ball into its waiting arms. Beautiful! But where was this so many times when we needed it with storms exiting east off the SE coast?
  25. eduggs
    Same deal as last run on the 0z Euro. Thump to mix to rain. Heavy snow well inland. Well more like thump to drizzle and dryslot. Don't like the sudden pseudo-consistency.
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