eduggs
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Everything posted by eduggs
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If this had come in with the standard 10:1 ratios, a lot of people would probably be disappointed with the 2-5" snowfall regionwide.
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This is an example of underperforming the model consensus QPF. But the favorable snow to liquid ratios made up for it. Locally, I'm not sure many places significantly overperformed the modeled QPF. It looks like the ratios were a little higher than expected in the heaviest bands.
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Not sure about the model bust. QPF looks pretty close from most reports. Models don't predict accumulated snowfall.
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Both the snow total and liquid equivalent match other reports from the area. If true, liquid ended up very close to modeled QPF consensus... maybe even a touch lower. The intense bands are key to big accumulations.
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Man that worked out so nicely for the SE half of CT. Not so great for RI though. Sick stationary banding for BOS and just south.
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Maybe in some areas. But models predict QPF not accumulated snow.
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No, I did not write it. I've seen it referenced a lot in forecast discussion out of the ALB office. It's a really good program - cool that you were a part of it.
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Maybe also incorrect snow to liquid ratios? I'm not sure how accurate the measured liquid precipitation values are, but NYC stations aren't reporting huge numbers. They're all around 0.4". So if HREF is using 10:1, that matches up really well with those maps.
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This event is not over, but so far it seems like QPF and distribution of QPF was fairly well modeled. The snowfall reports coming in relative to measured liquid equivalent suggest ~15:1 ratios. The weakest model runs were not right. But judging by the liquid equivalent at Hartford, Springfield, Worcester etc (accurate?) the strongest, wettest model runs were not right either... at least outside a narrow jackpot area. Waking up to that band in SEMA is what we dream about. I'm loving it. Congrats!
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Looks like brief Mohawk-Hudson convergence. MHC Thesis
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Those are too high outside of the immediate NYC area. I believe those are the maximum of the ensemble runs. So it would seem NYC achieved the high side of the modeling and other areas - maybe to the NW - were closer to model consensus.
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Was that a renegade snowshower that just moved south through NENJ or a radar artifact? mPing shows a single report of snow along the NY-NJ border. I would have dismissed it based on the reflectivity characteristics and southerly motion, but the mPing report made me not completely sure.
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Will anybody be awake for it though? Obviously being further east will help with daylight snow.
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It has seemed very steady to me. Run after run after run the focus has been SNJ, LI, the southeastern half of SNE and then EMA with a bonus ending. Nothing has deviated from that for days. There have been some minor shifts within the ensemble spread only meaningful to QPF queens, but overall this has been locked for days.
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These QPF totals from Monday night's GFS run look a lot like that overnight Euro run. Heaviest totals SNJ, LI, RI, SEMA. Seems like guidance has been generally locked in for days now.
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If this pans out it's a really great week for DC through Delaware to SNJ.
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Yeah we'll take that GFS run.
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The big trend since 12z is to hook the coastal SLP up a little closer to the Cape. That really favors SNE and EMA in particular. We may get a few hours of moderate to heavy snow, but there's also the threat of a relative minimum through out area that has shown up on a few runs. The 18z EC was a little light with QPF outside of LI for example.
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The bulk of that falls in about 4 hours in NYC and 7 hours in ORH/BOS. So widespread 1"+ per hour.
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The HRRR looks like the NWS expected snowfall map from earlier today. Garden State Parkway to I-95 special. That's a legit storm if it's real.
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Hmmm, EC a little lighter than it looked at first glance in CT.
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EC with the best looking run in a while. If 0z comes in similar everybody goes to bed happy!
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Definitely should be some good snow bands somewhere PHL to New Haven in that 10pm to 5am timeframe. Who will wake up to a surprise?
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Definitely looks interesting mid-month. Possibly an amplified pattern.
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Looks like a few arctic fronts and maybe a couple nickel dimers on the GFS long range. That would be different.
