eduggs
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Everything posted by eduggs
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For Thurs, it actually helps that the shortwave has sharpened and trended so far northwest since it puts the main surge of warm air into OH and WPA and leaves plenty of room for CAD. The energy is kind of split with some heading up into Ontario and another area of nice vorticity and UVV sliding through our area Wed night. With a different evolution this might have been a significant snowstorm. As is, it could be a solid plowable (thump) event similar to Sat night, but with the local maxes possibly shifted around somewhat.
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Actually I don't believe I commented on last storm since I was away for it. I was focused on the one before and the one after. Locally we got about 2" and then ice early Sunday. It's a glacier. Looks nothing like the north country where even northern fringe areas got several inches of perfect fluffy powder. From reports it looks like LI and CT did well on Sunday.
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A sharp shortwave over Lake Huron with associated intense SLP on Thursday is not what we had in mind last week when the wave of threats was coming into mid-range view. The feared scenario looks to be playing out. Hopefully southern areas can score a little Tue and northern areas Thurs. Unfortunately any snow looks to take place primarily at night and ends as the all-too-familiar ice to rain. Bummer.
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Those images are actually two time period snapshots in succession in the 12z ECM run around Feb 20th. I just posted them to illustrate that what looks good on 288hr ensemble averaged anomaly chart could easily fail to result in a snowy outcome. In fact it's more likely than not. The shortwave details will determine the result. It sounds like you are saying kind of the same thing.
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It looks like it did for yesterday morning's event... at least when it was outside 12 hours.
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Goody, maybe this is what we get: OR Many possibilities for sensible weather outcomes...
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Who said anything about an ice STORM?
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If it snows in an unfavorable pattern and rains in a favorable pattern, what does favorable pattern mean?
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It could still work out favorably. If the Tue shortwave turns out slightly sharper and surface temps stay at or below freezing, that's a moderate snowstorm right there. Possibly even with an enjoyable, partly daytime, real-snowstorm feel. If the follow up shortwave turns out slightly flatter, there is a very real possibility of another moderate snowstorm or snow to ice. This event could even turn out to have more QPF. Two significant events within two days is rare. In fact it's conceivable it goes something like 2" - 4" - 4" over 6 days including Sunday. And there's yet another wave lurking towards the LR. If forced to guess right now, I'd go with: Tue ends up a light event - C-2. And Thur. is ice to heavy rain. But the ICON 24+hr snow scenario is not off the table either.
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Maybe not in Manhattan. But there were two icing events in the past week just outside of the concrete jungle. The upcoming "pattern" produces overrunning waves. That means mid-level warm layers and a ZR risk. The southwest mid-level flow and lack of strong SLP just make it harder to get heavy precipitation and a snow-supporting column together at the same time for more than a few hours.
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Yup. We have to hope we cash in over the next 10 days. Long range stuff is just wishing and dreaming.
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I'm not the slightest bit interested in the MJO index when we have multiple trackable snow threats in the mid range. With this setup, right now, if you tweak the shortwave progression and evolution, you get multiple significant snowstorms. Snow doesn't give a fck what the MJO is.
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Calm down. It's just a temporary break from your regularly scheduled (mindless) programming. Are you referring to me as a kook, or someone else? What have I said this is kooky?
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12z was bad (GFS, CMC, ECM) No sugarcoating. Way too much rain through the extended. Ensembles are narrowing the spread and shrinking the snow means. Enjoy Sunday if you can.
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I would kind of like this to be an active place for locals to carry out essential political discussion. But I'm personally likely to move onto other things soon. And there is little sustained interest in this kind of thing. Most people use twittergram or whatever anyway. You can breath easy... the banter thread will live on as normal.
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"Disrespect" is subjective. The moderators have ruled (against my recommendation) that they will allow these discussions here. I tend to think it is necessary to address these issues in all public forums.
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Pretty strong agreement among the GEFS members that Tue is a light/fringe event south and Thursday is a warm - mostly liquid event. Fortunately the members tend to cluster fairly reliably around the operational run.
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I would pay money to never have to accidentally glance at a 300+hr anomaly chart.
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I had really hoped we would be in a stronger position at this point. Instead we face a succession of very tenuous threats. Lots of failure modes here. Yes there are still several legit snow threats. But right now the only strong chance for 6"+ is the far northern suburbs on Sunday.
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Honestly, your great, great grandchildren will still feel the shame and embarrassment of your having supported DJ Trump. I bet even just conversations in this forum will survive as record and proof. It's not about democrat vs republican, liberal vs conservative. It's not about policy. It's about basic human decency. It's about believing in building something for the collective good vs. destroying what we've built for the sake of an everyone-for-themselves world. People have to decide for themselves to leave the cult.
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You had a random list of vague topics. Each of which would require details, complexity, and nuance in the response. But we're happy to discuss any topic that you want. But be specific. No person or team is 100% perfect. But we have a very very clear distinction here. Both sides are not "equally bad." I can list dozens of obvious flaws on one side. Serious, meaningful, impactful stuff. And you counter with relatively trivial stuff. That's not balanced.
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This shit is serious.
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Of course it could be sooner. Most experts believe it will be. I agree with your points. But I was trying not to be alarmist. The point is that it is a real and present threat. We had a plan for how to respond. Now we mostly don't.
