eduggs

More 50s than 20s during peak-winter. So so weird. That's deep south stuff.

Haven't had anything in northern NJ either, outside the far NW hills. Zippo. Actually it's been 2 years of futility locally. So I/we commiserate.

NAM had it. Especially apparent on the 3km. Congrats. The snow you're seen in the past hour is more than a lot of us to your southwest have seen all winter. We are enjoying it vicariously.

The 12z EC looks most promising for Wed. I has a fortuitously timed slug of overrunning snows before mid-levels become unsupportive. Even with that, the 10 day grand total clown map for NYC shows 2.1" with 10:1... so really a coating to an inch considering surface temps. Just brutal. Peak climo.

Fair enough. I guess I usually think in terms of regional forums or even network TV viewing areas. Within our forum, I consider the Hudson highlands and NNJ ridgelines to be the elevated N&W. Maybe the Poconos to Shawangunk Ridge to southern Taconics could be considered part of that, as the far N&W.

I don't consider the Catskills to be part of the NYC area. Yes the Catskills are N&W, but so are the Adirondacks. I was referring to more like Sussex County NJ or Orange and Putnam, NY. This storm looks to be for Wayne, Pike Cos. PA to Sullivan, Ulster, Greene, Columbia Cos. NY, to the Taconics and Berks etc... Dutchess could have a significant gradient I think... with a 0-2" low along the Beacon waterfront to a max somewhere along the NE corner in the Taconics.

Glimmer of hope yesterday and then it's all gone to shit today. Maybe elevated far N&W get a little front- and backside love like Walt describes. Could even be some wet snowflakes mixing in to the coast tomorrow at the end. Basically April. And no excitement for a cutter with a SLP to Ottawa and rain to Canada. Nothing of note in the pipeline until fantasy land. The long range looks slightly different than it's been but not particularly favorable. It's too far out to take seriously anyway. Low point of the winter for me morale-wise. We can almost see the end now.

Some support. 18z HRRR. Also the 18z RGEM shifted in that direction. SNE likely to benefit the most. But I'm starting to believe elevated NWNJ through SENY might sneak a few inches on the back side. Elevation looks like it will help as lower boundary levels look slow to cool.

The system has been sharpening up slightly early on, and shifting the R/S line in the mid-Atl. NW... then flattening later on to benefit NE. The cause appears to be increasingly disjointed waves/ areas of vorticity. Overall tendency is a weaker storm with energy hanging back. More snow for places that have been receiving a little of it lately.

That's already happened numerous times since late Nov. in the long range. All models have been biased too cold in the east and too warm in the west. Until cold gets inside of 7 days on multiple models for a few runs in a row, I will doubt it.

Daytime highs, nighttime (high) lows, days with rain, total rain all probably near winter-to-date records. Coastal plane snowfall throughout the area near record lows. I see no reason to expect that to chance anytime soon. The same features keep popping up around 7 days out and then basically holding. Still hoping for positive changes though.

Overall I think most short and mid-range models have done a great job this winter. Obviously they are all suspicious out at the end of their ranges. But inter-model agreement and run to run consistency has been relatively high IMO this winter. Few big head fakes. The problems have been people taking 10+ day charts and running with them.

0z NAM still sending a surface reflection to WPA. Too much easterly wind component as a result and it takes too long for the primary to completely fill and winds to shift to the NE. No meaningful change. Maybe a few hours of snow or mix City N & W, but primarily rain outside the mountains. The event is also shaping up to be a little dryer and quicker than indicated a day or two ago.

3 weeks of deep winter climo left and ~7 weeks of extended winter. Regardless of who "cancels" winter, it can snow in late March. But even in cold winters of old, mid-Feb. always started to feel like Spring on a sunny day. Spring is rapidly approaching.

We'd need a radically different upper level setup to lock in high surface pressure. Trof axis is also way too far west. Really not so different than several other rain storms we've had this winter.

I hope it pans out. But I don't see anything to latch onto yet. 10+ days is just too far out.

Yeah I think we're screwed for the forseeable future. Maybe far N&W gets a little something. I don't see anything promising right now. Not Monday, not Wednesday, not deep into the extended. Maybe it cools down at some point, but there are no distinct and promising threats. Ensembles still say the City has a chance of stealing an inch here or there. I'm doubtful of even that low threshold for the time being.

The leading edge of your round 2 snowstorm is clearly evident on radar spiraling through central PA. Feeder-band-esque. Lots of vorticity and unstable air with that feature.

GFS closer but still not there except extreme N&W. Trof flatter with a little more vorticity trailing behind than last run. Just need to keep the shifts coming.

0z ICON with one of the better runs of the year. Two solid snow threats in the mid-range and then cooking up another big one at the end. The upper levels look suspect as early at 60 hours out, so I don't trust it at all without support. But at least it shows how things could theoretically turn for the better.

The ICON looks more like the NAM than the GFS/RGEM thankfully. It's also hanging back energy in the trof... something that was apparent on the 0z NAM and even a little on the 18z EC. That is a sign of the displaced and unphased shortwaves, which could weaken but also drag out the event.

It looks like model convergence towards snow for the Poconos through Catskills and Taconics and mostly rain southeast of there. The initially sharpish shortwave in the Ohio Valley induces a weak inland primary SLP and WAA through the Mid-Atl. and our area. That screws us. But thereafter (and likely too late for us) the wave dampens and everything slips east. A key will be how strong the shortwave and primary SLP are initially. Thunderstorm development out of the Gulf tends to sharpen trofs. But if it can stay flat enough like the NAM, we might get close to the snow line. I expect the NAM to move west and warmer and the GFS to tick south and colder. Any movement by the EC, UK, and CMC will be indicative.

UK is close for Sun night-Monday but has nudged slightly warmer and westward the past 2 runs. All in all an uninspiring 0z. Hard to see a lot of wiggle room in the outcome, especially on the eastern flank. But we're definitely close enough to stay invested. Even the ICON scenario with snow for most cannot be completely discounted.

GFS queueing up a parade of rain storms per usual. At least it hasn't fooled us with too many fantasy blizzards so far this winter.

So far tonight it looks like ICON/NAM vs RGEM/GFS. UK and EC will be tonight's tie breaker. At least it feels like we have a shot this time. But being stuck rooting for a wave to be flatter is never a good position to be in.