eduggs
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Everything posted by eduggs
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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17
eduggs replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
It does seem like it has been very consistent. But I bet people in eastern OH, WPA, and the southern tier of NY have been feeling like the models have been waffling a lot. -
The GFS is nearly identical with the surface pressure field. What is with the obsession with the placement of the L on the map? Do people really not understand what surface pressure means and how there can be several relative minimums?
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Base lodge is about 1700', top of lift elevation is about 3200'. Top of Hunter Mountain is 4039'
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That's true. But I wasn't even thinking of mountain tops... I was more thinking of towns on or near highways. The town of Hunter is approx. 2000ft asl and a great place for easterly-flow coastals. That's why it's my first choice. But the area near Mt. Pocono is right off I-80 and a little closer, although only about 1200ft or so. Right now you'd have to go out to central or western PA to get into any kind of deform. So Catskills are probably the better choice.
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Between I-287 and I-80... maybe even I-78 I definitely think there could be a few hours of snow before any flip. Decent cold in place with a slight upglide into terrain with that wind direction should be sufficient. A relatively early occlusion in VA might actually help us blunt the warm surge slightly. I also think north of the City into Rockland, and parts of Westchester could put down a little snow as well. I agree the duration is likely to be relatively brief. But it could be intense for however long it lasts.
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That was the first town that popped into my mind too. Right along a highway. But that shadowing on the GFS QPF map changed my vote.
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I haven't experienced legit daytime snow in a while. All of the "events" this year have been at night. Scanning the LR ensembles... a little bit uninspiring ATM.
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Agree but that's a valley area. How about one exit earlier at New Paltz and then slightly west up to Mohonk Preserve. Should do really well in this kind of event.
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At first I was thinking Sullivan along 17 too. But some guidance is showing shadowing there with such a strong easterly flow. Areas along the eastern edge of terrain should do better.
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Without thinking about it too much I'd vote eastern Catskills (e.g., Hunter) or Mt. Pocono, PA as a backup. Long drives though.
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The RGEM is still going bonkers with the storm. H5 low in SW VA and SLP way west. Seems we're always rooting for major model busts to get the good stuff.
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It's true soundings support snow for much of the event NW of NYC. And that would be a heck of a thump. But I gotta suspect somewhere around 800-850 goes above freezing and a lot of it ends up sleet or ZR. But it definitely could produce warning snows well north and west.
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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17
eduggs replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Yup. Miller classification is an oversimplified binary classification system from the 1940s. There's no deep meaning behind it. This was before the satellite era. Meteorological analysis is much more sophisticated these days (outside this forum). -
The NAM already looked unfavorable at hr 48. The progression from that point looks fairly reasonable. All guidance is in pretty good agreement.
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The 18z NAM is UGLY. Can't buy a positive trend. The inland track is well entrenched.
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If we could just figure out why the HP is doing that...
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The deform almost gets to Cleveland on the 12z UK. Just light snow accumulations there now. Maybe next run will get them.
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Toronto, Rochester, Binghamton, Scranton. Those are the benchmarks for the precipitation shield. Right now we are out way past Toronto, deep into the Canadian interior. That's obviously terrible for us for snow. If we pull that back to Toronto and then Rochester, that would be progress. When Binghamton gets fringed we're probably looking at a west of I-95 special.
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Congrats Cleveland? A more impressive phasing each run...
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Those individuals look east of where they are shown on other vendor maps. Maybe the map overlay is shifted west?
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The ICON was a hair east at 500, 700, 850, surface etc. Other than that (GFS, CMC, RGEM, ensembles) I have not seen any good news on the 12z so far.
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Pressure fields are like topo maps. There can be many relative low and high points. Storms aren't controlled by their point of lowest pressure. Surface pressure is the result of what happens in the upper levels (plus a little surface frictional forces etc). You can identify the absolute lowest pressure point. But it doesn't really matter where you put the L if there are several nearly equal low pressure points.
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From the GEFS I would interpret a high likelihood of the captured primary SLP moving into NMD or SEPA. A second relative min. surface reflection is also likely to develop south of LI. I think that's why we see a few Ls there on the ensemble chart. But I don't think that means that the entire storm is shifted east in those cases. If two areas of low pressure are of approximately equal pressure, they may alternate on which is the absolute lowest. The L only gets placed at the point of lowest pressure. That could explain some of the Ls south of LI. It doesn't mean those storms are shifted 80 miles east. It might just mean that in those cases, the inland SLP occluded a little sooner and weakened slightly.
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A lot of people are obsessed with the location of the L on the map. But they don't really know what it means or what it does.
