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eduggs

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Everything posted by eduggs

  1. eduggs
    Widespread mid and upper 20s in NENJ, even into central Morris County. I was hoping the relatively cold surface temps in MD and SEPA would translate up to our area, but they haven't. It's definitely warmer than I was hoping as the light snow begins. Close proximity to the Ocean.
  2. eduggs
    I haven't looked in a while. But it sure looks like the 12z NAM - esp 3km - increased frozen amounts in NEPA, NNJ, I-84 corridor etc. That's a major event if correct. The HRRR is still impressive as well. The rain still comes in quickly, so it probably comes down to whether or not the cold can hold on for an extra hour or two. The less wintry RGEM looks closer to what I expect. Weird that the Mesos aren't hitting the ice harder.
  3. eduggs
    It is eerily similar Almost a perfect overlay if you match up the right time frames. In fact, at quick glance it almost looks like next weekend's storm would be more likely to cut. But most of the vorticity for next weekend is modeled upstream with PVA heading east or southeast. Today the vortmax has rounded the bend and PVA is moving northeastward. Such a subtle difference.
  4. eduggs
    The LR anomaly charts identify fantasy patterns that might allow a potential threat to materialize. And sometimes those patterns turn out to have been fantasy (i.e,., model errors). Other times the potential threats do appear, but they affect Nashville or Cleveland. So the success ratio of snowstorm hunting is very very low. So I don't look out past day 10 at all because I think the guidance is almost as likely to give a head fake in the wrong direction as it is to correctly signal something favorable. The error bars associated with any metric out beyond day 10 are huge.
  5. eduggs
    I have no problem with using the models - both OP and ensembles - to forecast snowstorms in the extended medium range. I'm a vocal supporter of modeling and I believe guidance is clearly better than ever. My problem is using LR indices and anomaly charts to hunt for snowstorms. It's fine if you're an energy trader, but it works poorly for local weather forecasting.
  6. eduggs
    That's all tainted with the benefit of hindsight. None of that was clear at the time. The fluke 0.4" liquid equivalent snowstorm occurring near the time the PNA was changing sign was a coincidence. The Pacific is still flipped right now - no snowstorm. And the recent anomaly maps have looked pretty classic for a big east coast snowstorm.
  7. eduggs
    I'm getting more excited by the minute. I didn't realize how narrow the warm sector was until I saw that temp. map. With the early occlusion, relatively cold low level temps push in pretty quickly from the southwest. Most of us can sleep through the brief period of rain and warmth, as long as the winds don't awaken us.
  8. eduggs
    Might be accumulations in NJ and PA with those instability snow showers on Monday. I bet that translates into CT too.
  9. eduggs
    Hmmm. Colder than I thought. The cold is holding well east of terrain in the Berks, Cats, and NWNJ. Nice to see.
  10. eduggs
    I look at ensembles in the medium range. I look at op runs in the short range. Most meteorologists are slower to adjust than models. They also think they are smarter than the models.
  11. eduggs
    Models have known biases. Meteorologists have mostly unknown biases.
  12. eduggs
    I definitely would FWIW.
  13. eduggs
    Well one run of the GFS impacted us with the Ocean storm. And several model runs, particularly on the GFS, got plowable snow to NYC with the SNJ event. But I agree, guidance consistently showed those not impacting us. My point is that storms don't always trend NW, especially once models are locked in.
  14. eduggs
    Feb is 4 weeks long. There will be good stretches and bad. Personally I think Spring comes early and we better make the best of these next few weeks, especially near the coast.
  15. eduggs
    The Nova Scotia-New Brunswick Ocean storm never came. The Delmarva, southern NJ storm never came. Plenty of storms don't come NW. If there's no strong, amplifying shortwave, it's not coming.
  16. eduggs
    I didn't think a year like 2015 was possible for that area before it happened. Now it's happening again. I doubt it will finish as bad as that year, but you never know.
  17. eduggs
    I'm just sick of the long range pattern talk in general. This week is a perfect example. The 500mb height anomalies for this whole week scream snowstorm potential, maybe even multiple events. But as always, snowstorms are determined by details at a finer scale.
  18. eduggs
    I'm pretty sick of hearing about the teles. They are weakly predictive of local snowfall events. Correlated yes, but weakly predictive. And in addition, the error associated with predicting their values is high. So we are left discussing highly uncertain and weakly predictive indices.
  19. eduggs
    Spot on. Horrible shadowing off Mt. Equinox and the southern Greens. Totally different story 10 miles south of Hoosick Falls. Lots of relatively unknown microclimates.
  20. eduggs
    When you're near the coast, a lot of the TV weather snow maps give the impression that whatever city is far off to the NW frequently gets the most snow.
  21. eduggs
    ALB does fine overall, but is one of the warmest and least snowy places in that region. It's much snowier to the east along the Rensselaer Plateau and to the west in the Helderbergs. Lake effect snow belts are not far west and the southern Adirondacks are just go the north. ALB is also relatively warm for that latitude. Only the Hudson river towns to the south are warmer and less snowy.
  22. eduggs
    It was better there than 12z. And the GFS actually wasn't much better. ALB isn't a big snow town. Gets downsloped on almost any wind direction and very low elevation.
  23. eduggs
    I bet those eastern members all have relative minimum surface pressure centers in the same northern MD cluster that are about 0.1mb lower than where the L is placed.
  24. eduggs
    If basically this outcome prevails, it might be time to finally give the mid-range models their due. The GFS led the way like 6 days out - with the CMC, UK, Euro quickly following suit - showing this storm pretty far west in contrast to the ensembles, analogs, and synoptic analysis. Maybe the models aren't trash.
  25. eduggs
    During satellite era.
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