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eduggs

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Everything posted by eduggs

  1. eduggs
    Good to highlight that. If it plays out as currently indicated, that's a pretty significant snowfall for that axis of NEPA extending into the Southern Catskills of Sullivan and Ulster counties. Could be some pockets of 6"+ I think. I also wonder how the precip. shield will look in the overnight as the mid-level lows and vortmax finally slide through and begin converging with the surface low over the Atlantic. Will precip. gradually lighten and dissipate or could there be some moderate bands that form and rotate through the metro early tomorrow morning? Most models are showing a little bit of lingering QPF. But does this represent widespread light precip. or the averaging and smoothing of banded precip?
  2. eduggs
    Picked up a quick almost 1.5" in central Morris County. Gorgeous parachutes mixed with a little sleet. It was legitimately dumpting for an hour or so. The first batch went almost perfectly for western parts of the metro.
  3. eduggs
    I love it! That initial band looks healthy. I will try to enjoy whatever falls here in NJ, because it could be the main show today.
  4. eduggs
    It looks like the last couple of NAM runs. Not much of a bust IMO considering the modeling trends over the last day and a half. Maybe a bust based on the big runs of a few days ago. Or even the RGEM yesterday. Let's see what happens first.
  5. eduggs
    This initial batch could be mostly snow and sleet for a lot of areas. But after a possible lull late morning/early afternoon, I'm concerned that the southerly flow above 925mb associated with the ULL could change a lot of places to light rain outside the far interior. Dynamical cooling with heavier precipitation, or a rapidly deepening low (and associated 2nd mid-level lows) could offset this. But recent trends have moved in the opposite direction. I like the area ~10 miles north of I-80 and west of 287 for a few inches of snow. South of there, if precip. rates are high enough, I think we could cool the column and at least coat the ground. If it's mostly light precip., I think it will be difficult to accumulate much below 800ft.
  6. eduggs
    You're obviously in a much better spot than most for this one. The looks really marginal with a relatively low ceiling. And most people are hunting for KUs. But it's also the kind of event that can bring an unexpected surprise with low expectations. That makes it fun to track.
  7. eduggs
    Sleeting and about 36F near Morristown.
  8. eduggs
    Yeah come on! Why can't models be consistent 16 days out!
  9. eduggs
    It's still a week+ away but the Jan 8-9 period continues to look interesting. The 0z EC and 12z CMC had the storm and intermodel ensembles are suggestive of a coastal storm threat in this period.
  10. eduggs
    I think we're giving causal power to "the block" that doesn't actually exist. The global-scale atmospheric features are interconnected. The upper and lower level features are integrally related. A change in one feature doesn't really force the other... the changes happen in unison. And the jet streams spinning around the globe are like buckling strings. Movement anywhere along the string affects the whole chain. Models don't "see" a block and then adjust. Models forecast a pattern that we describe as a block simultaneously with depicting synoptic features that are placed in concert with that block. If models forecast a stronger block they will also forecast synoptic features that appear to be responding to that block. But that is not the models responding to something tangible that has the power to force weather changes. That is our ability to see into the future evolving in time. The apparent causal connection is just an illusion. Just like the notion that a surface high can force the movement of a surface low. Highs and lows are merely dance patterns linked in a complex choreography with all the features of the atmosphere.
  11. eduggs
    We're talking about small numbers and small sample sizes, so it doesn't really matter. But I think your area averages about the same snowfall as the elevated NW half of Morris and Passaic counties. The snow climatology of the Hudson Highlands and elevated lower HV is very similar to the highlands NW of I-287 in NJ.
  12. eduggs
    At least twice as much snow as here. I even remember snow in Putnam back in October. Several inches in Fahnestock. I've measured about 6 or 7" cumulative on the year. Morris, Hunterdon, Middlesex, and Somerset counties in NJ have not done well so far. 4 hours of heavy snow on Dec. 17 has been about the extent of it. Admittedly those were 4 glorious hours.
  13. eduggs
    The decaying primary surface reflection near Buffalo is associated with the ULL. It's still there. The EC has clearly shifted south and east with the coastal low. But it's not a crazy shift for 3 days out.
  14. eduggs
    Possibly my favorite thing about this NAM run is that it DOESN'T slam SNE. I hope and pray. I personally don't favor this type of solution. But I do buy seeing more QPF into the southern tier and western NY associated with the primary, and a little bit less in EPA. Lots of model runs still to go.
  15. eduggs
    The NAM is definitely colder and takes a more offshore track with the secondary low. End result is a less intense initial band, a much less pronounced dry slot, and a longer duration of light to possibly moderate precipitation. More snow for NJ and SENY, probably less snow for Poconos and Catskills. The less-tucked solutions are still on the table obviously.
  16. eduggs
    It's funny how the atmosphere has found all sorts of ways to snow in SNE and miss or rain on NJ (and sometimes the rest of the metro too) so far this year. Cities like Hartford, Providence, and Boston are way ahead of us. Even Danbury, New Haven, Taunton etc.
  17. eduggs
    The 18z RGEM is warm and tucked. The coastal low tracks from Tom's river to ELI. The snow axis is mostly Catskills, Capital District, VT. Maybe some snow to start and end for the Poconos and mid Hudson Valley etc. I don't like this run but I buy it. Back to back ski country base building events it looks like.
  18. eduggs
    Thank YOU for your input. We all read it eagerly. I remember reading your forecast discussions in the early 2000s while I was in college. I bet a lot more people read those than you realized.
  19. eduggs
    The NAM doesn't torch 850mb until after the bulk of the precip. passes through. Before and during it actually looks supportive of snow with a little elevation and distance from the coast. Check the soundings. You might be right to discount it but to me it looks plausible. To me the synoptics suggest quick thump and then dry slot. I'd prefer something longer duration but I don't see it right now.
  20. eduggs
    Yeah most decent events in the City, LI, and coastal NJ are preceded by an entrenched cold airmass. But I don't think you have to go very far N or W of the coast to be able to occasionally cash in our marginal events.
  21. eduggs
    The 18z NAM tracks the 700mb low to near Lake Ontario - maybe even slightly north of the Lake. It looks a little north of other guidance with this feature. Brings a quick 3-6 hour precip. thump and then a pronounced dryslot. Followup showery precip with the decaying ULL looks to stay mostly N and W of the area. I'm not a fan of this solution but it could flash to a snow column pretty far south with those initial rates. I think it generally has the right idea with a NW primary and a tucked surface low. Obviously I'm rooting for more of a GFS type solution.
  22. eduggs
    So often in the past I've seen people so focused on future possibilities (which may never materialize). that they are surprised by events in the near term that sneak up on them. Coastal snow events are not very common, even marginal ones. As a snow lover I'd be carefully monitoring and rooting for this if I were in elevated NNJ, through the Hudson Highlands, up into the southern Taconics. Even the I-80, I-287, lower Hudson Valley area has a chance of whitening the ground I think.
  23. eduggs
    Probably not, but I wouldn't rule out mostly snow for your area. Looks like a little northerly surface drain north and east of the HV. If we can stave off any lower-mid-level warming from the decaying primary, I think you could do fine up there.
  24. eduggs
    The regional Canadian is warm, but still really close to a paste bomb for areas just NW of the corridor. As depicted, Walt's I-84 area is the dividing line on the CMC.
  25. eduggs
    With a primary into Rochester NY I like the Catskills for a quick hard hitting thumping. Flakes could fall much further south, but once again the large-scale synoptics don't favor our region.
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