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eduggs

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Everything posted by eduggs

  1. eduggs
    Saw flakes 5 days in a row to end November. That's uncommon even in the heart of winter.
  2. eduggs
    Next week looks like the first marginally trackable threat of the year for the remote possibility of flakes. Most guidance shows a shortwave trying to round the base of a trof mid-week ushering in some seasonably cold Canadian air. Obviously there's significant variation between the models in terms of the strength, orientation, and position of the features. But maybe there could be some mixing in the NW hills on the backside of a frontal wave? The GFS shows a wintry looking clipper lake week too. Best chances for anything wintry next week are probably elevated lake effect regions and the NE mountains. But I think the long-range winter storm tracking season is just about to begin.
  3. eduggs
    30 years ago that area was probably a secret powder skiing heaven, but now the word is definitely out. Covid messed up my plans to finally visit. There's a lot to like about Japan. Interesting culture for sure. And there are certainly a lot of fascinating geological and meteorological phenomena.
  4. eduggs
    For snowiest places where people actually live, northern Japan has to be at or near the top of the list. Especially since most of it falls in just 2 or 3 months.
  5. eduggs
    Tropical ≠ Subtropical
  6. eduggs
    Interesting that you think your personal anecdotes can substitute for facts. There exists a ton of information on both subjects if you care to educate yourself. Or alternatively, and more likely, you're a republican. Unfortunate.
  7. eduggs
    I don't believe you are correct about the "Subtropics." Your statement about "scientific" predictions during the 1970s is pretty broad-brush and misleading too.
  8. eduggs
    Duration (intensity) was the key to local flash flooding, not so much the totals. The 4-6" that occurred in NEPA through SENY was spread over approx. 12 hours, whereas the majority of the 5-8"+ across EPA, CNJ, NYC metro, and into SCT fell in a 3-5 hr period.
  9. eduggs
    I don't think an assessment of which models performed best is quite so simple. Some were right about the initial bands staying NW but wrong about the quick hitting main show and vice versa. There were different aspects - duration, placement, intensity etc that each model had partly right and partly wrong. I don't think any guidance really nailed the evolution perfectly. And which run(s) do we make the judgement based on? As is often the case, some kind of combination would have worked best.
  10. eduggs
    Large areas of Middlesex, Mercer, and Somerset Counties in NJ have probably received historic 2-hr rainfall totals. 25-yr and even 100-yr rainfall intensities happen pretty regularly throughout the state in individual thunderstorms, but it's less common over such a wide area.
  11. eduggs
    For the metro corridor this evolved into basically a 6-hour heavy rain event with the really huge totals mostly falling within a 2-3 hour period.
  12. eduggs
    Somerset airport in Somerville, NJ unofficially reported 2.83" of rain between 7pm and 8pm, which is impressive. I'm sure there are even heavier backyard hourly totals along the I-95 corridor.
  13. eduggs
    The latest 04z HRRR continues to print out a lot of QPF. Over 0.5" for everybody except Sussex, Orange, an Putnam Counties. Even a few isolated areas near 0.75". Snow near and west of 95 with a sharp cutoff. It looks like a summer squall line. I wonder if some of the QPF could get lost to graupel. If rates are intense as some of the mesomodels indicate, it could get pretty wild tomorrow even into or close to the City.
  14. eduggs
    I think the 6z NAM was a little too far NW with the initial overrunning precip. this morning. And also a little too wet outside a narrow band in extreme SEPA. But the GFS and RGEM look to have been too dry in EPA and CNJ.
  15. eduggs
    The radar looks pretty good for most of the area for the next several hours. Only far northern NJ and interior lower HV look like they will struggle for precip. Central NJ to near Staten Island look best. Could be 6-8 there I think just today. Maybe that gets into NYC and LI. It's hard to know how far north the best rates will get. Also gotta watch the sleet along the southern flank later today.
  16. eduggs
    The GFS has less than 0.25" QPF for much of the area (excluding southern parts of the region) through Fri morning. Tomorrow is looking like a relatively minor snowfall on most guidance now. Hopefully a few rounds of steady snow on Fri make up for it. But if the follow up wave fails to deliver I can see how this almost becomes a sub-advisory event for some areas. In my mind I got greedy yesterday and imagined getting the heavy overrunning and the follow up wave. And now it's seems possible that we fail on both. Even the finger of initial light overrunning that most models pointed at us for days also went north of us
  17. eduggs
    I like the call even though it's probably unpopular. Strictly by their guidance the forecast totals fall below warning criteria. And I think it's good to reserve warnings for the biggest events so the public doesn't get numb to them. Hopefully for us snow lovers it proves to be the wrong decision.
  18. eduggs
    Finally catching up on today's model guidance. Can't say it looks all that impressive. The initial overrunning has trended less impressive over time as expected but the upstream trof hasn't sharpened up enough to compensate. There is a risk for northern areas that rates/QPF end up fairly minor. The threat for SE areas is mixing. We'll see how it plays out. I wonder if the inverted trof feature might enhance snowfall for some areas as the SLP pulls away on Fri.
  19. eduggs
    Based on the modeled 850 temps and a likely warm layer above that level, a few tenths are likely lost to sleet overnight Fri for the SE half of the area. I'd call it a 5-8" storm on the UK. Of course final accumulations will always depend on ratios and banding etc.
  20. eduggs
    The concern is real for N and esp NE areas about a possible lack of good rates. The flip side is that ratios should be higher, mixing is minimized, and storms that tap into the Gulf tend to be pretty moist.
  21. eduggs
    The GEFS mean continues to reduce initial overrunning precip (though still healthy) and increase both the total duration and QPF on Fri. The event total is still >0.75" area wide and 1+ NYC and LI.
  22. eduggs
    I see your point. But big snow thumps almost always end as a mix or dryslot, which spoils it a little bit. I know the colored graphics look a little sheared out, but light to moderate snow with temps below freezing might not feel sheared out in reality.
  23. eduggs
    Wow the RGEM looks primed to deliver another period of meaningful snow Fri night. Almost as much falls with the 2nd wave as the first for some areas.
  24. eduggs
    The RGEM has snow (at least flurries/light snow) in the area for 50 hours!
  25. eduggs
    This is the 2nd or 3rd best looking threat of the year for most of us. There's no telling how this will play out, but these kinds of events don't come around that often.
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