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eduggs

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Everything posted by eduggs

  1. eduggs
    Pouring dense small/medium flakes in Montville, NJ. Just like it has in all the big ones over the years. Currently 1"/hr min. and 1/4 mi vis. 25F and at least 7" otg.
  2. eduggs
    That was fast! I'm not too far north of you and still nothing. I'm always a little anxious about the start.
  3. eduggs
    Nothing so far near Morristown. Radar looks good but so far too dry.
  4. eduggs
    Yes. Getting things started without a significant delay is usually a good sign. But it's possible there could be some pullback of the returns at some point today as dry air erodes the initial overrunning and things start to shift to the developing coastal.
  5. eduggs
    We can't ask for better model runs a day before go time. I can't remember another storm during the 4-times-per-day modeling era where pretty much everything was showing area wide 1.5" snow liquid equivalent. The risk here is that we're pricing in the huge totals and setting ourselves up for disappointment if only a foot falls. I plan to try not to obsess over the radar on Monday, but I will probably anyway.
  6. eduggs
    I think the big totals are possible somewhere. We have the right ingredients. The problem is the jackpot zones aren't usually forecastable in advance of nowcasting time.
  7. eduggs
    Ballsy going 15" for Danbury And ~1 ft City wide isn't exactly going low.
  8. eduggs
    It definitely is looking good right now. But I can still think of lots of things that could go wrong. I'll feel better if we can start to accumulate tomorrow night. Get a minimum of 4" down by midday Mon, another 4" during the transition to the coastal, and another 4" from the deformation/commahead. That gets us to 1'. It all starts hopefully tomorrow night with covering the ground in white. First we have to saturate the atmosphere tomorrow afternoon/evening, which could be a slow drawn out process.
  9. eduggs
    I agree it sure looks like that. But 1' snowstorms are rare outside the mountains. A lot has to go right - almost perfectly. Even in the short term, ensemble averages are rarely over that threshold. There's always a lot of uncertainty that can spoil a setup. So I think it's usually prudent to stay relatively conservative until it's basically nowcast time. The impact usually isn't so different between 12" and 20" unless we're talking about a heavy wet snow. So holding something back I think is fine from a forecasting perspective.
  10. eduggs
    Same in my family and I'm sure many others on here. But it's nice to know we're not the only crazies out there.
  11. eduggs
    Sure seems that way! And the radar to our west looks juicy!
  12. eduggs
    Yes usually overdone, especially near the mix line. But in this case I think it's pretty reasonable based on widespread 1.5" liquid falling in a mostly snow column. However there is some mixing on ELI and coastal NJ and I think the para is overdoing frontside QPF. If the synoptics evolve like that, there should be widespread 1' plus totals for sure.
  13. eduggs
    I think the GFS v16 is about the best look for the entire area, with the possible exception of far far NW areas. It's 18+ everywhere with highest ratios in areas with lowest QPF, widespread 2' totals, and a solid 40+ hours of precipitation ending as lingering scattered snow showers. It doesn't really get much better than that. In reality bands will likely setup that screw some and bury others. And there will probably be mixing in some places (to I-95?) for a time.
  14. eduggs
    Actually I think the SLP on the NAM is further NE. Tucks closer to the NJ shore than the Delmarva and drifts northeastward.
  15. eduggs
    Model consensus now shifts the pivoting deformation bands well NW of us. That introduces the possibility of unmodeled high ratio jackpot zones in CPA, SNY, upstate NY etc. But for now it still looks like a lot of snow for most of us. It just no longer looks like the comma head will decay over head on Tuesday. That could change again of course.
  16. eduggs
    Rain gets west of I-95. Good frontogenesis all the way to Rochester. The expanding circulations around the mid-level lows get really far NW, just like they did for the Dec. 17 event. But most of our area still gets good snow due to the duration and the intensity. Not too surprised considering how the RGEM looked.
  17. eduggs
    Yes. My point was just that I don't think the RGEM should be discounted. We are all mostly just guessing at this point. As usual, we probably won't really know what's happening until the radar presentation becomes obvious.
  18. eduggs
    This sounds like wishcasting. With the wrapped up midlevels, this type of solution could easily happen. Yesterday's 0z CMC hinted at it, as well as recent NAM and ICON runs. Several individual ensemble members alsoe. I don't think we should completely ignore these types of outlier solutions, especially because it fits recent trends and makes some sense synoptically. I expect the RGEM will correct back next run, but I think the overall model consensus will probably shift in this direction. One weird thing about the RGEM, however, is that is shifts the initial overrunning pretty far south and delays it right when other guidance had been slowly shifting it earlier and north. Associated with this, it redevelops the surface low south, and initiates the stall and tuck south of the Delmarva. A few of the inter-model ensemble members showed this. Hopefully and outlier, but still a reasonable solution IMO.
  19. eduggs
    Light yes, but I'm not so sure meaningless with temps below freezing. It doesn't take much to coat roads and transform everything to winter.
  20. eduggs
    Judging from the model charts (EC, CMC, NAM), I think the area of strongest mid-level frontogenesis associated with the deformation zone/comma head could move pretty far NW as the SLP matures. The pivot point could also end up pretty far NW. I could see intense bands move through our area before stalling a bit west of us. Maybe even a dryslot moving in from the southeast. Where the heaviest precipitation sets up and where it pivots will largely determine the heaviest snow axis. Of course the long duration makes big totals possible in a lot of places. We probably really won't know the likely distribution far in advance. Remember the 20+ inch totals for Dec. 17th were not expected so far NW even at the start of the event.
  21. eduggs
    Those aren't lingering light snow showers at 84 hours on the RGEM. That's bands of moderate snow. Steadily accumulating snow.
  22. eduggs
    I don't think we can be too sure of anything at this point. The overrunning still barely makes it to our latitude, and the wraparound could easily end up weaker or further southeast. This is definitely a tenuous setup. Small upper level changes will lead to hugely different local weather outcomes.
  23. eduggs
    1.4 - 2.2" liquid across the entire area on the NAM through 84 hours and still snowing at the end. Ratios above 10:1 for at least part of the event. Gorgeous run.
  24. eduggs
    I have a bad feeling about yesterday's UK and the 6z Euro that miss us. They show the progression that I've (we've) been fearing. And it looks right to me. I hope it's just irrational pessimism from being snakebit so much lately. Realistically almost every major storm has significant model uncertainty until a day or two before the event. Model disagreement and run to run changes are part of the game.
  25. eduggs
    I suppose it could come back a little bit in short term modeling. But it looks like we'll mostly have to wait for the main deal up here. Slightly positive signs I see are the 06z GEFS ticking up with QPF on the northern edge and the NAVGEM bumping north again with a pretty good run. Usually it's good to be on the NW edge of a mature 700mb circulation. It could even come down to nowcasting. We'll see.
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