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eduggs

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Everything posted by eduggs

  1. eduggs
    The trof axis is still west of us on Friday (from 18z GFS), with a bit of a vortmax down near the Gulf coast and a pretty sharp trof. Yes the strongest baroclinicity is already offshore, but with this look we're not so far away from regenerating coastal snow bands throughout much of the day on Friday.
  2. eduggs
    ICON data output isn't compatible with 3rd party vendor ptype algorithms. So ip/zr is shown as rain.
  3. eduggs
    Yes. That's not what I would forecast at this point. I still expect mixing through all of NJ and SENY. But model consensus plus 2 days of trends suggest this could become a mostly snow event. The 500mb height field on tonight's GFS looks nothing like it did two days ago.
  4. eduggs
    The GEFS have significantly improved over the course of the day, generally following the op. The mean now shows mostly snow as the ptype with around 0.75 QPF. That's a big change from recent runs that showed 1-1.5" with the majority rain.
  5. eduggs
    I haven't seen anything shifting north so far with this event. Trends over the past few days have been really positive. This could reverse or continue but I have no feeling about which is more likely. I'll be looking for trends in modeled QPF and forecast soundings from here on out.
  6. eduggs
    The model charts definitely look good and the trends are good. But I STILL think sleet (or eventually ZR) is a risk here to significantly cut down on snowfall. Most guidance gets significant snows into the the Adirondacks and northern VT. As others have noted, when WAA is strong enough to push significant snow that far north, we usually have mixing problems down at our latitude. Even the snowier solutions have sleet very close by in CNJ pretty early in the game. We don't have a lot of margin here. I'd like to see guidance increasingly focus significant snow south of the Albany NY latitude.
  7. eduggs
    I think miller A and B are extremely simplistic labels for a synoptic evolution that can have a wide spectrum of characteristics. Surface pressure is a response to upper level divergence and convergence, air density, topography etc. There can be one max/min point or many. A SLP doesn't move from one place to another like a truck down a highway. It forms, strengthens, weakens, moves, or transfers in response to changes in the upper levels.
  8. eduggs
    All guidance now points to a significant winter weather event for the entire area. The duration now looks like it could extend 24 hours or more. Only the NAM still shows a dryslot moving in early Fri.
  9. eduggs
    v16 looks like mostly snow around and north of NYC.
  10. eduggs
    The GFS keeps looking better and better... as does most guidance. The initial shortwave that moves through the midwest around day 3 has been trending less sharp. This in combination with the shortwave moving through the Maritimes has really improved the 500mb height field across several cycles. I'm starting to think some of us might be able to maintain frozen precip. throughout. Gotta think we can start talking about the possibility of at least a 4-6" snowfall - borderline warning, if this scenario holds or keeps trending.
  11. eduggs
    I think we're converging on a solid advisory 3-5" type snowfall followed by sleet. So maybe something like 4-7" snow and sleet combined. I really hope we can get a few hours of heavy snow during daylight hours Thursday.
  12. eduggs
    Yeah. Probably a little warmer, and a little less QPF, but there are some similarities. The max snow axis looks different though.
  13. eduggs
    Even the relatively cold RGEM has pinging in the vicinity by early or mid afternoon. Fortunately it doesn't progress very far north of there for several hours. But unless the entire structure continues to shift south or the timing changes, I would expect sleet to race fairly quickly from EPA and NJ during the day Thursday.
  14. eduggs
    Great run from the RGEM. Not a huge change from previous CMC runs. Very little rain if any. Significant snow over 6-10 hours followed by sleet and probably ending as drizzle or zr.
  15. eduggs
    Definitely seems a little warmer than forecasted. It will probably cool off a few degrees or two this afternoon/evening. Anybody already below freezing right now will probably see some decent icing.
  16. eduggs
    The GEFS continue to be wetter and warmer than the op, particularly after the initial changeover. Although they have been decreasing QPF and getting colder for several cycles.
  17. eduggs
    Yeah the big takeaway from recent trends is that we are moving away from the big washout finale scenario. Hopefully we can minimize or even eliminate the change to rain. I'm still skeptical of warning level snows. I think most everyone starts with several hours of snow on Thursday. How heavy it gets will probably be a nowcast. But I still expect sleet to arrive quickly. Hopefully this ends as a mix to dryslot and not rain.
  18. eduggs
    It's all about where the heaviest snow bands set up. Guidance has been shifting south for several cycles now. Regardless, sleet is coming unless everything continues to shift further south. The primary low still gets to WPA. That almost guarantees significant mid-level warming. North of the MA border now looks like mostly snow on some guidance.
  19. eduggs
    Yup. The primary doesn't survive into WNY and Lake Ontario. But it also means it continues to cut back on the overrunning precipitation. End result is about the same or less snow and less rain.
  20. eduggs
  21. eduggs
    On most guidance, the warmest layer is up around 750mb and is a few degrees C warmer than 850. Even a relatively cold model like the EC has mid-level warmth surging northward midday Thurs. If it is not picking up the warm layer above 850 (as I suspect), then it will be undermodeling the sleet surging northward through NJ at that time.
  22. eduggs
    Lots of surface and snow maps around here. Does anybody look at the upper levels anymore? This does not look like a classic snow setup. Maybe it could work out for MA and northward. But at our latitude it's a wishing and hoping setup. It's kind of the typical miller B with SWFE characteristics. 8 or 9 times out of 10 we see advisory level snows or less with this. 1 or 2 times out of 10 someone in the Mid-Atlantic to our area sees 6-10 (sometimes undermodeled) as the intense overrunning produces banded heavy snow. IMO the mid-level warming with be quick and strong. To me that suggests brief heavy snow to mix.
  23. eduggs
    We do seem to be trending towards slightly less QPF overall and a shorter duration of ice. The eastward shift and slight separation between the initial WAA and whatever follows is noted. Best case seems to be about 10hr snow with 4-6hrs of that intense, followed by brief zr then dryslot. My heart wants to believe the snowier solutions, but my brain tells me otherwise. To me, the synoptics don't favor a long period of snow. This looks like a lower impact version of December 17. I think sleet taints the snow sooner than modeled and a dryslot saves western areas from a washout. Snow accumulations then come down to how intense the WAA snow bands are. If heavy 1-2" bands materialize some areas could put down a quick 6". But if it's more the moderate .5-1" stuff that I expect, we're looking at more like 2-4" followed by ip/zr away from immediate coast. Mixed signals right now on model guidance. In either of the past 2 winters, we're looking ahead here to a major winter storm. It's important to keep that in perspective.
  24. eduggs
    Not much. Maybe by an inch or two with a little more ice. But I think the GFS is a little overdone. I think sub-warning snowfall amounts locally are most likely. But at this point it's really just guessing.
  25. eduggs
    That's a nice look on the EC. Snow to ice to dryslot. Not much rain away from the coast. I continue to like a model blend. Less snow, less rain, and more ice. That's almost always how it goes around here with a primary into Western PA. But the EC continues to look encouraging for a snowier outcome.
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