eduggs

Lots of virga so far. Not sure many places see much snow with this. Some guidance holds off until later when it goes right to ZR and light rain. Tue. night continues to look interesting - as Walt has been highlighting - for extreme NWNJ through the HV. The 06z shifted slightly south into Sussex and Westchester with the snow line. NAM, CMC, EC are a little further north from I-84 to the PA-NY border. There's potential for a light plowable snowfall in a fine line wherever this frontal boundary sets up. It would be fun if this shifted further south. Something to watch...

It should cool down a bit Sunday night and there's a bit of a northerly cold drain at least until early Mon. on current guidance. Even if it's a little warm on Monday, the low level dry air could allow wet bulbing down to near freezing if precip. materializes. Still obviously too far away for confidence.

The Monday deal could easily punch warmth too far north or get shredded. Riding the narrow cold leading edge of a warm front is a tricky proposition. The important thing is there are a few medium and larger range wintry threats to keep entertained for now.

Nice shift on the Euro towards a 1-3" type deal. Gets snow into SENY and WCT. It actually appears to be the furthers northeast of the major models. The 500mb s/w vorticity also survives a bit longer as it traverses NE.

It could, and I would take it. A few spots in NJ and EPA got over 2" with this batch. And parts of CT and RI got over 3". Sometimes you can get lucky, even in a seemingly lousy pattern. It looks very wintry out my window today.

The GFS and CMC are pretty juiced up for Monday with >0.75 liquid into NWMD and SWPA. The precipitation will likely hit a wall as it moves through PA, but we might be able to scape some light snow out of it.

Upper level support decreases as the system approaches us from the west. The precipitation will also be fighting dry air as it tries to move east. But there could be a sneaky burst of snow maybe just southwest of us? CPA, SNJ. At least it's a threat worth watching.

It looks like the local jackpot zone was right along I-80 in NJ out to PA. A general 1-2" on all surfaces. It must have been a beautiful burst of snow late last night.

The connection is the non-rhotic pronunciation. Most American dialects are rhotic, which was a characteristic of English spoken in England until about 200 years ago. Ultimately all languages and dialects and rapidly evolving constantly, so it doesn't really matter. But it is fascinating to learn about how language has evolved.

The non-rhotic (i.e., don't pronounce the letter r) of New England likely developed due to the close connection between New England and England during the 19th century. However, spoken English was actually rhotic during colonial times. Language evolves quickly everywhere, but it seems to have changed more significantly in England than in the US since the Revolution. Generic American English pronunciation is more similar to English spoken 200 years ago in England than modern British English or "Boston" English.

That's a really consistent series of runs, especially considering QPF is the least accurate model parameter. The biggest wild card is obviously in ski country - light or moderate event?

Most of us have a shot at maybe a dusting to an inch tonight through tomorrow morning. Then maybe something wintry on Monday. These could be our best threats for a while. Even if the Pacific ridge shifts east, the trof axis will still be pretty far west. Without a helpful NAO phase, we could be looking at a lot of cutters and rain. Most of us would probably be willing to roll the dice, but there's no guarantee that a "pattern change" will increase our snow threats.

Most forecast soundings showed a dry layer between the surface and 850mb so the column won't necessarily saturate immediately. ZR seems most likely based on the depth of the warm layer. Surface temps will likely warm through the night. Definitely could get icy in spots.

Proclaimed proudly. Respect.

Agree about the ice. It's mentioned in the NWS forecast discussions but I think overall it's likely to catch some people off guard. On radar and short range guidance, it looks like the precip is coming and will be fairly far NW. Even if it's mostly drizzle, it could cause isolated problems.

I don't ever remember models being this good 3-5 days out. The situation we have is more models and more model runs than ever before. That creates an enhanced impression of inter- and intra-model discontinuity. People are also hyper focused on their local region, particularly the surface features. I think that leads to unreasonable expectations with respect to model accuracy and continuity. Yes weather models perform worse during active periods in the mid-latitudes. But even this year, we've rarely seen the large 5-day model errors that we saw 10 years ago - even 5.

In my 25 years of model watching, I have seen a huge improvement in accuracy, particularly in the medium range. The models have never been this accurate. The problem is we keep looking further and further out and expecting greater and greater forecast precision.pre

The models have actually shifted quite a bit over the past 3 days, slowly but steadily, from showing nothing to now bringing moderate qpf to eastern maine and just east of SNE. There's very little chance of snow anywhere in SNE. If anything there looks to be a low risk of a little ip or zr mixed with rain showers. It's the sort of thing that is only interesting when there haven't been any good threats on the horizon for a while.

SLP ends up slightly SE of 18z even though it was shaper/stronger down south. Pretty much same result as last run however. Should be decent snows up north.

0z NAM is coming in a little sharper/stronger/west of 18z for Wed. I wonder if it can cool the column fast enough for eastern SNE. Looks like it will hit eastern Maine and the Maritimes pretty good.

The 12z CMC looks tantalizing with this threat too. The biggest trend over the past few CMC and NAM runs is to increase the sharpness of the southern wave. That helps but we'd need big improvements from all the synoptic players. The two northern stream waves have trended slightly more favorable as well (increased antecedent heights along the east coast etc). It probably wouldn't take too much digging of the 2nd northern wave to induce partial phasing since the southern wave would be positioned to take on increasing tilt on the downstream side of the longwave trof. Thus far no guidance has really bought it. Seems like a longshot, but I'm dreaming of Jan 25 2000.

Everything at least as far north as the CT/MA border looks like sleet there. But I can definitely imagine a little sleet mixed in at the onset for the northern burbs.

Gut says this comes back north and agree that this feels like a potential ZR/IP situation. Cold surface in situ, especially around 925mb. And then the orientation of the upper levels with the longwave trof fairly far west and plenty of room for a strong southerly component to the mid-level flow.

Both the 18z GFS and 0z NAM show a period of scattered flurries or light snow for parts of the area early Saturday morning. It's very light and a little warm, so not very exciting. But it's also the kind of weak but focused overrunning event that can get overlooked. The kind of situation where if you expect nothing and wake up to a surprise coating you're excited.

Some of the resorts used to have a lot of foreign staff on work visas. I believe those programs have been suspended the past two years.