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eduggs

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Everything posted by eduggs

  1. eduggs
    Based on the past 2 days off inter-model averages, I'd say it's a bit of an underperformer in the QPF department for much of the State. NW areas have been consistently modeled in the 2-6" range. It's not over yet.
  2. eduggs
    What do you have in the bucket?
  3. eduggs
    Almost certainly a tornado. Was pretty clear on radar and eyewitness accounts.
  4. eduggs
    In most of NJ, rain underperformed but wind and isolated severe have mostly delivered as expected. The past hour has really felt like a tropical storm.
  5. eduggs
    Should have cut back 50% or more. In my experience, wind products are always overdone outside shorelines, exposed terrain, and with convection. That said, the backside of this is gonna be gusty. Surface wind is a very local phenomenon. Models lack both the vertical and horizontal resolution to resolve it. And the resulting averaging overestimates winds in areas not prone to it.
  6. eduggs
    Winds are impressive today. But clearly some of the really big wind numbers on yesterday's ECM and UK products were overdone.
  7. eduggs
    Too bad most places in the US never buried their power lines like Germany, the Netherlands, and other industrialized nations.
  8. eduggs
    Looks like Sussex and maybe eastern Nassau are gonna get raked. Get those cameras ready Fire Island to the Hamptons if you wanna capture a landfalling waterspout.
  9. eduggs
    Looks a little high to me where I am in Morris County. Definitely gusty but not sure we even saw 40kt locally. Maybe up in the higher elevations.
  10. eduggs
    The intense rotating cells kind of pulsed off and skipped northeastward from SNJ to LI. But it's still possible a few cells pop up unexpectedly. The back edge of rain is fast approaching, but winds should still be strong for a few hours.
  11. eduggs
    Some nasty cells heading towards LI and probably SCT over the next hour or two. There will likely be rotation in some of those.
  12. eduggs
    Definitely looked like a weak couplet a few miles SE of JFK. Probably onshore and weakened by now.
  13. eduggs
    A weak waterspout near Jamaica Bay wouldn't be shocking right about now. Not sure the local visibility is favorable for spotting.
  14. eduggs
    The TOR signatures in cells throughout coastal NJ seem to have temporarily become less numerous. New cells look to redevelop and shift up towards NY harbor and then LI over the next hour or so.
  15. eduggs
    A lot of small/weak spin ups were not and probably will not be identified and flagged. They are forming and moving very quickly. If you could be out in a boat safely SE of Atlantic City I bet you would have a great view of several tornadic waterspouts parading in that line.
  16. eduggs
    Big hydro problems from MD to EPA. Fortunately this thing is moving pretty quick. Axis of heaviest rain stayed just west of the metros. Looks like one or two quick shots of tors as the main feeder band spins through and then a few hours of very gusty winds.
  17. eduggs
    50mph winds are damaging. And there could be wind damage tomorrow. But most of these forecast wind charts are way overdone, as they almost always are. 6-8" of rain in 3 hours would cause some serious flooding problems in parts of NJ. I think that could be the bigger concern tomorrow. But the relatively short duration could spare the area. Gotta watch frontal interaction out ahead of the main storm.
  18. eduggs
    So you can get some strong gusts down to the surface. But still nothing like over open water where there is virtually no friction with the sea surface.
  19. eduggs
    Those UK wind gust charts do not look reliable. Winds will be much stronger over open water than over land (outside isolated spin ups or atop exposed ridges). Those charts appear to be low resolution and well overdone.
  20. eduggs
    Snowflakes in the air next weekend on the 0z GFS. Looks like there would be accumulations above about 1000ft N&W. Impressive upper levels for this time of year.
  21. eduggs
    Downpours with sleet and wet snowflakes with some of those "storms" in NYS. Feels very summer thunderstorm-like.
  22. eduggs
    Yeah this was well advertised... that the real ice problems would be limited to the highest elevations with more marginal temperatures at middle elevations.
  23. eduggs
    The frozen/freezing QPF is/was usually not so far off. But the ratio of QPF to accumulated snow, sleet, or mixed combo was way off.
  24. eduggs
    If the hi-res models are anywhere close to correct, the distribution of icing will not be very uniform. It will be localized, sub-model-grid scale, and very elevationally dependent.
  25. eduggs
    It's obviously just pixel-averaged values. And in this case basically a pixel-averaging of topography. We all know the winter weather graphical products are very misleading yet people keep posting them.
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