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eduggs

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Everything posted by eduggs

  1. eduggs
    The mountains of western NC get a lot more snow than anywhere in NE on the last few GFS runs.
  2. eduggs
    Shortwave over the Lakes. Day 5.25.
  3. eduggs
  4. eduggs
    Decent looking clipper system on the last few GFS runs for next Tuesday. That's a good orientation to advect some modest early-season cold air. It looks like maybe an outside chance of snow. The CMC has a little something too. Sneaky late developing low scenario if that shortwave can amplify a bit more.
  5. eduggs
    500mb was definitely a touch sharper. Ticked towards yesterday's snowier solutions.
  6. eduggs
    I'm sure there were some high 60s and isolated low 70s in many towns and cities close to the shore. But I think if 70 mph+ plus was widespread inland the damage would have been much more extensive. There were many downed trees, but the damage I saw clearly reflected sub hurricane force winds. And the limited wind data we have doesn't offer much support for widespread higher gusts.
  7. eduggs
    You kind of make my point. Only a few areas, relatively near shore, on a large island heavily exposed to southerly winds off the Ocean, reported 70 mph+. LI is a very exposed piece of land, and was particularly exposed in this setup. The majority of the NYC metro saw max gusts below 70 mph, which was still sufficient to cause widespread damage.
  8. eduggs
    Along or near the immediate shore, especially in LI, there were widespread gusts over 70. But inland I think it was mostly lower than that. 60 mph gusts over the course of a few hours can definitely bring down large trees, especially with full summer foliage.
  9. eduggs
    Two lessons learned (hopefully): 1) 60 mph+ wind gusts are very damaging. 2) Be suspicious of modeled 60 mph+ winds away from immediate shorelines.
  10. eduggs
    I've seen strong wind storms in western Europe - Netherlands, Germany, Poland - where 20%+ of the treecover was felled over dozens to hundreds of square miles. On the east coast of the US, tree damage tends to be much more localized, particularly in severe thunderstorms. But I can imagine a scenario where we lose a lot more trees over a widespread area. Saturated ground and widespread 80-100mph winds would do it. And it will happen one day.
  11. eduggs
    The change of wind direction exposes new areas and stresses vulnerable trees and branches at different pressure points. NW winds started abruptly here. So far gusty conditions similar to a departing nor'easter, but the full foliage adds significant weight.
  12. eduggs
    The severe weather today mostly skipped past NENJ and SENY. Still lots of TOR reports throughout the northeast and presumably even more unreported.
  13. eduggs
    Eerily calm right now. Like 5 kts or less.
  14. eduggs
    In the calm in Morristown. Waiting for the backside winds.
  15. eduggs
    I'm buying that. Fortunately it's 45 kts not 55 kts. At 45 we get lots of medium limbs and power outages. At 55 we get large limbs and trees down (esp if ground were more saturated), impassable roads, roof damage etc. I think we (locally inland NJ) are right near the lower threshold for widespread significant wind damage.
  16. eduggs
    I hope people are recording these waterspouts on the east end and the SCT shore. Nice parade of low topped cells.
  17. eduggs
    In Morris County the worst of the conditions so far have been reminiscent of a strong to borderline severe thunderstorm. The low vis and howling winds were also somewhat reminiscent to a strong nor'easter. Max gusts thus far were probably the 2nd strongest of the summer. Many of the susceptible branches may have been blown down by thunderstorms earlier this summer.
  18. eduggs
    Gonna be some record stream/river crests in EPA. River levels are up in up in NNJ but nothing crazy yet.
  19. eduggs
    1) With tropical systems you should never really rule out flooding problems. Small shifts or unmodeled mesoscale features can produce tremendous totals. 2) Flooding (river, flash, coastal) produces the most widespread damage (especially in NJ) and is the most frequent storm related threat. River flooding in particular, caused by widespread excessive rainfall, produces catastrophic and sometimes long lasting effects.
  20. eduggs
    Morristown hit 50 kts, maybe higher last hour. There should be lots of limbs scattered about the roadways.
  21. eduggs
    Thanks for all your graphics. Can you provide time frames with the totals? Is that hourly, daily, multi day? A few local totals (near Dover) look like they might be 2 day totals.
  22. eduggs
    What you are experiencing is what I was concerned about further east. Fortunately the primarily rain axis stayed west.
  23. eduggs
    Me too. Where I'm staying in north central NJ is flooding prone and I was concerned.
  24. eduggs
    I'm not calling model bust. I'm saying that relative to where things stood 2 days ago, considering the tropical storm path, jet structure, PWATS, time of year, and atmospheric instability, I consider this an underperformance relative to potential. This has not been a very big rain producer in most of NJ.
  25. eduggs
    You are pretty far NW - relatively speaking.
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