Jump to content

eduggs

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,770

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by eduggs

  1. eduggs
    Looks like an inverted trof and some easterly flow - ocean enhancement.
  2. eduggs
    We lost the RGEM. And no guarantees this is done trending.
  3. eduggs
    0z RGEM - Surface low to Rochester with steady snows to Albany and Worchester. Light sleet and then rain into NENJ and Westchester. Quite a change from a day and a half ago. Yet another potential event in a long series of events trending away from us in the short term.
  4. eduggs
    The 18z was a discouraging 5 day GFS run. The forecast QPF distribution is actually somewhat reminiscent of the snowfall distribution so far this year, at least north of the Mason Dixon line. The GFS might be too dry locally. Other guidance is more encouraging. But I don't think the GFS should be ignored.
  5. eduggs
    If the GFS is close to right many areas may struggle to put down an inch. The axis of best snow looks to once again set up well north of most of us. It could be the CPA to BGM to ALB corridor again... or possibly closer to I-84. This is looking like a nowcast pray for a mesoscale banded feature situation. The regional synoptics are just not favorable for much more than occasional periods of light snow (which could turn to sleet or rain).
  6. eduggs
    This event continues to look less impactful as we move forward in time. Right now it looks like two periods of light snow. First Tue morning and then possibly again overnight Tue. Some guidance shows semi-continuous spotty light mixed precip throughout the period, but the consensus seems to show a lull following the initial WAA push. The possible inverted trof feature, which could extend snow showers well into Wed, has shifted slightly north and east of the metro. If temps stay below freezing, even 1" of snow will seem very wintry. 3" would seem like a pretty significant event. I would lean towards the low end. But we can hope for pockets or bands of heavier snow to make things a little more interesting.
  7. eduggs
    Model soundings show dry about 700mb. Upper level divergence and lift are weak. Vorticity is weakening. There's just not a lot of modeled support for precipitation generating mechanisms east of CPA. Maybe things moisten up in the short term. Or maybe a few areas get lucky with isolated banding. Otherwise I think we are looking at a minor event.
  8. eduggs
    The GFS and CMC are a lot closer together now after moving towards each other. A miss to the south or glancing blow seems most likely. But we're not so far off from a decent hit.
  9. eduggs
    I agree. The shortwave responsible for the precipitation in the mid-Atlantic on the 26th is stronger and sharper this run. Precipitation gets further north into the Ohio Valley this run. A few more small changes like that in the mid and upper levels would produce a big change at the surface IMO.
  10. eduggs
    That's interesting. But personally I think, as hobbyists, we would be better off if weeklies did not exist. Year after year they prove to be as misleading as they are predictive.
  11. eduggs
    It's a crap shoot. Perfectly timed shortwaves can produce major storms in any "pattern". And a great "pattern" with a slight wrinkle in the setup can produce zilch. The large scale synoptic features certainly increase or decrease the likelihood of a good winter, but there is also a lot of luck (randomness) involved.
  12. eduggs
    Thanks. That's helpful to visualize the relative likelihoods and typical ranges of each state during this upcoming time of year. It's hard to tell, but it looks like AO-/PNA+ is most common.
  13. eduggs
    All days during the January 21-31, 1950-2020 period.
  14. eduggs
    Nice plot. Is it also possible to plot the base rate - the AO/PNA scatter diagram for all days?
  15. eduggs
    I like Walt's approach. He doesn't really talk about weeklies, ENSO states, climate indices etc. And he generally does not look past about 10 days. He doesn't seem to talk a lot about "pattern". He just seems laser focused on tangible threats for the local area. Because for us, weather is a very local phenomenon. Apologies to him if I'm misrepresenting him. I just really prefer this approach to the long-range twitter crowd. It keeps hopes and expectations much more realistic.
  16. eduggs
    Yes the models show an active northern stream, and it would be surprising if a southern stream low went north of the Lakes with the current flow regime over the Northern Hemisphere. The point I was trying to make is that if one of the primary models shows a southern stream low moving through the Lakes at day 9, it's probably a valid solution. It doesn't mean it's likely to happen, just that it could happen. No, lows don't drive into blocks. But lows form and move in concert with movement of upper level features. So in this hypothetical scenario, if there's a cutter low, the modeled "block" probably moved or disappeared.
  17. eduggs
    The v16 runs 3 systems through the Lakes over the next 10 days. The northern stream storm track looks to be positioned through southern Canada, so I don't see any reason why it couldn't play out like that. If the model shows a low pressure center in southern Ontario around the 26th, I think we should assume that it could happen. After all, the model physics is built to conform to the boundaries of what is physically possible. It's completely valid to bet or argue against what the v16 is showing. If it's an outlier, we can point to that. But I don't think we can rule out certain outcomes because of our superior understanding of atmospheric physics. I think that is basically just guessing.
  18. eduggs
    The ICON and NAVGEM also show precipitation making it into our area around the 22nd. Both also seem to have trended a little north. I don't know if the NAVGEM has any value for mid-range forecasting in our region, and I've been a little disappointed with the ICON this year particularly beyond 72hrs. But both models do show a less suppressive flow regime than the EC, GFS, CMC trio for late next week.
  19. eduggs
    Good catch regarding the 22nd. The 12z GEFS were noticeably wetter, particularly into the Ohio Valley, than any recent runs. I'd like to see the individuals - there must be a few with a much stronger s/w and maybe some northern stream phasing. The mean even clips southern NJ with the 0.1" contour. The mean is in stark contrast to the operational GFS, ECM, and CMC runs, which completely squash the wave and its associated precipitation. If there is really some room here for a more northward solution (which the 12z GEFS questionably suggest), I'd like to see the GEFS hold strong for a few runs and then eventually the operationals show some movement. Right now they are steadfast in their suppressed look. Otherwise we are stuck always looking deep into the future.
  20. eduggs
    I think we can still salvage some ice skating and fishing weather, even if things don't look snowy for the foreseeable future. Winter isn't all about snow. And all it really takes is about an inch of powder to completely change the wintry feel.
  21. eduggs
    And the CMC follows suit with a boring run. It's been exactly 1 month since we strung 2 good model cycles together in a row. A dreadful stretch.
  22. eduggs
    As usual the GFS is pouring cold water on the situation and stalling our momentum.
  23. eduggs
    It feels like we're starting to get a little momentum going today. Let's keep it going tonight.
  24. eduggs
    That could be a high estimate for survival. Getting an accurate estimate would depend on how causes of death are attributed and how many people have been infected. Without accurate and widespread serological testing for COVID antibodies, we won't really have a good estimate. Regardless, it is significantly deadlier than the flu and deadly enough to cause a little anxiety if you are infected. Getting vaccinated is not just important for personal health. It's critical that we get case numbers much much lower. Obviously a high vaccination to infection ratio protects the heard. But it also significantly reduces the number of mutations that occur. Right now, with millions of cases worldwide, there is an increased chance of a mutation creating a "new strain" that is partially resistant to the current generation of vaccines. That would be devastating.
  25. eduggs
    Maybe consider getting your vaccine at or very close to a hospital just in case. And obviously have the EpiPen ready. Fortunately severe anaphylactic reactions have been rare.
×
×
  • Create New...