eduggs

Looks like possible flakes or sleet Tue. evening, esp N&W of 287. It's too early for any confidence, but not too early to talk about it. GFS and NAM forecast soundings show wetbulb temps near freezing Tue. evening as precip. arrives. Entrenched cold, dry air between 850mb and 950mb could start things off frozen if it doesn't get too warm during the day. You never know what can happen - isolated parts of southern IL picked up several inches last night in an overperforming band... and now a few inches into IN this morning. It will obviously be harder to maintain a frozen column east of the mountains, near the Atlantic, but seeing flakes in November is always nice.

This is the first wintry looking sounding of the season. In fact, the wet bulb temps could almost support wet snow in the highest elevations of the southern Catskills. And it would possibly only take a model error of a few degrees Celsius to get some sleet in parts of NEPA and NNJ. Realistically we're not that close, but there's a feel in the air and a look to the model charts that is reminiscent of winter!

You argued for days - dominated the forum with your viewpoint - that this event would wind up cold and snowy. And you were wrong. Best to just man up and admit it.

6-7 for ALB and sleet at least as far north as southern ALB county. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=nws&issuedby=aly&product=pns

The NAM was really good. Models should be expected to shift around either side of the final outcome. And it really only went too far north for one run. And sleet did briefly into the southern Capital District.

Weather modeling has literally never been more accurate. Over reliance on vendor snow maps, ignoring of synoptics and forecast soundings, and unrealistic expectations of model accuracy create a false impression of model unreliability.

To borrow a previously used phrase, the GFS, Euro, and UK were out to lunch. Sleet surged way north. Good job NAM. Sorry you missed out on another snowstorm. Lousy winter.

Nobody should be the slightest bit surprised. Unless they ignored the path of the mid-level shortwave through Lake Ontario and the past 6 runs of the NAM. The GFS gets sleet to ALB now. Probably briefly to SVT too. Should still be decent snow up there though.

I don't think you should focus so much on ptype interpreted accumulation maps (e.g., 3" at ALB). They can be very misleading. Yes recent NAM runs had a slightly stronger and longer-lived primary surface low. But there is broad inter-model agreement on the synoptic setup. The difference between 3 and 8 inches of snow could come down to a degree or two in the warm layer.

This looks like a pretty typical SWFE to me. The SWF refers to mid-levels, not surface features. The high doesn't "retreat" because the mid-level shortwave approaching through the midwest is dampening as it approaches, so the area of strongest upper level convergence stays in approximately the same place. This upper level convergence (converging height lines) results in an accumulation of air aloft, which is forced to descend - hence high surface pressure. The dampening wave allows a quicker weakening of the surface low and prevents a complete torch. But if you look at h5, the shortwave is traversing Lake Ontario and northern NY on Friday. That's classic SWFE, and why we have a mix event on tap while areas north and east will be snow.

It didn't correct as much as you think. You are talking 3rd party interpreted snowfall accumulations, not model output. In reality, the modeled column cooled a degree or two near 800mb. The overall depiction is still the same - weakening primary in WNY associated with a dampening shortwave, transferring to weak coastal SLP. We don't have a strong mid-level low or a bombing coastal low - just a modest southerly mid-level flow and weak to moderate surface CAD. That sounds like a recipe for a broad area of mixed precipitation. Snow vs. sleet will come down to whether it's +0.5 or +2 in the warm layer and whether dynamical cooling can partially compensate. With a strong primary I would always take the warmest solution. The NAM often leads in cases like this - in fact as others have said, sleet frequently ends up further north than modeled. And I wouldn't be shocked if BGM and ALB mix for a time. But in this case the warm surge is muted, so I'm not so sure. That's why I'm not completely writing off significant snow (i.e., 4"+) in Sussex, Orange, and Putnam counties.

Anybody ignoring the NAM is wishcasting. The GFS and UK have the same basic idea. This could still go either way along the area of sharp snow gradient. But it's hard to see how the mid-level feature in WNY and southerly flow near 800mb doesn't push sleet pretty far up the HV. North of I-84 and east of the Hudson seem to have the best shot of damning in just enough cold air.

I like the southern Catskills to the CT-MA border for the jackpot zone. But if the model consensus is a hair too warm, you might be golden where you're at. Max QPF may end up just south of where the max snow is currently forecasted. If that lines up with a snow column it's double digits. I'm rooting for you because your area is due. If and when you mix with sleet you may not change over completely since mid-level warming will be weakening over time and there may be a dynamical cooling element to ptype with a shallow layer above freezing.

It's not like it hasn't snowed. There have been a good number of 1-2" events. But we always want more and bigger. I know you enjoyed your two solid events, but I bet you were still a little jealous of LI, SE CT, and SNJ when they got 12+.

Almost the entire state of MA is 6+ (10:1) on every model. So jealous. It's been almost 13 months since I saw 6" of snow here in Morris County. For some areas this will be #3 or 4 this winter alone. Spoiled fckers.

So the GFS and UK were essentially unchanged from 18z and 12z respectively and the CMC ticked south relative to 12z. Not a lot of movement overall. A model blend seems reasonable.

The GFS at 0z looks a lot like 18z. There are the usual minor localized differences, but that's mostly noise. I'm happy it didn't trend worse. This can still shift more wintry. Model consensus has NYC right on the threshold... a shift colder and this is a significant wintry event. A shift warmer, and it's a minor nuisance event. The question for the northern suburbs is does this become a major snow event or mostly mix? And the question for the southern burbs is whether there is any impactful wintry precip. at all. There's not much sense in guessing, but I'll do it anyway. I think warning snows stay north of I-84 with a lot of sleet between there and I-80. I think frozen accumulations decrease rapidly south of there with minimal impact south of the latitude of Raritan Bay.

The RGEM actually cools the mid-level during the event Thurs morning as the event progresses and a SLP develops well south of LI. The strengthening damning signature is evident. But by the time the column is below freezing, the dendritic growth zone is unsaturated and we are left with freezing drizzle. It looks like the RGEM goes to +3 or +4 at the warmest. If that were closer to +1 or even +2, I would have more confidence this ends up isothermal.

Kind of a chicken or egg thing, no? The strength and position of the high is dictated by the upper levels. So a model will tend to show shifts in height field that correspond to changes in surface pressure. But that doesn't mean that the high is causing the change - just that the surface features are happening in tandem with changes in the other surface and upper level features.

Falling snow that can be walked and played in is obviously more fun than previously fallen, ice-encrusted snow. We're all hoping the snow line isn't too far north. But there is not currently a lot of guidance that doesn't have it pretty far north by daybreak. Fingers crossed for a cold-south trend.

That's a little disingenuous. You know as well as anybody else that most people are asleep at 4am. I agree parts of Putnam could get something like 4 inches of snow. If I had to choose right now I would take the under. But I'm hoping that area gets hammered so I can get 4"

There might be a little snow for NENJ, Putnam, Westchester etc. But will anybody be awake to see it? Sure looks like IP or ZR by daybreak except well north of the metro.

Nice band from LI to PHL to BWI. Wish I was in it.

Near Morristown. Lots of places overperformed a little this morning, which is great! But locally we were a little bit of a snow-minimum, and it has only been flurries and light wet snow during the day, which is a little disappointing. On the season we are something like 0 for 8 in terms of hit ratio for a moderate or better snow event. It just hasn't been our year in Morris County.

Sun shining through the clouds now. Snow melting off the cars. A little warner than I expected this morning.