eduggs
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Everything posted by eduggs
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Our area is crushed on that. But it was a notable shift west from 12z. I suspect the Euro will be west of this.
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Agreed. Maybe we windshield wiper back the other way. We were only briefly in the sweet spot. I loved the look when this was a VA-NC snowstorm. Not optimistic at all.
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The trof axis and mid-level lows move further west every run. No bueno. Everybody still seems to love looking at the surface maps.
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I don't really think so. When the OP run makes this kind of adjustment across several model runs moving against the ensemble mean, then you disregard the ensembles. They are far more useful when some semblance of run to run and inter-model consistency has been established.
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Gotta disregard ensembles when the OP run leads a trend across several consecutive runs like this.
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I want mature, wrapped up mid-level lows with a bombing surface low. I don't want to suppress that. I just want the trof to go neutral further east. The past few runs it's just setting up too far west. The vortmax doesn't need to swing west all the way out to CO. It might as well take a more direct route through IA, MS, AL and all the way down to northern FL. It can go to town from there. A severely negatively tilted cutoff in western VA is going to be a problem for us.
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Most of us would take that in a heartbeat. That's a State College, Binghamton, Albany, Worcester jack. Doesn't matter this far out, but I felt more comfortable with it missing east last run.
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That's an impressive H5 progression on the GFS. Suddenly there looks to be nothing to stop this from blasting precip. back to Toronto, Ottawa, and even deeper into the Quebec interior. SLP in ALB is not a great track for us. And this could probably go to Syracuse. I take little comfort from the ensembles. Hopefully 0z at least stops the bleeding and we can start clawing back some ground.
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IMO the bottom right box should be checked for all. They seem to be weighing likelihood for both axes. I'm not sure they are utilizing those risk matrices correctly. Confidence has not increased a lot since yesterday. But potential impact seems clearly high.
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What a monster. But too tucked. Suddenly we need the main shortwave (#2 of 3) to dive further southeast initially. It's starts going negative when the trof axis is too far west.
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That's a big inland snowstorm on the Euro. Mix to rain west of I-95.
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The Euro is going to phase with the trailing shortwave. Same idea as other 12z models today. The trof axis is fairly far west. This introduces the possibility of mix and rain in future runs but also big QPF.
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The EC already looks much more like the GFS than it's previous run. The shortwave trof is hanging back to the SW and much more potent than previous runs. It will turn the corner. Not sure where the SLP ends up... probably east of GFS/CMC. But there's not much stopping a tight coastal track if the s/w hangs back long enough.
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The big Euro runs will probably come a few days from now. Right now I think it's about seeing the Euro clearly move towards all other guidance. It's probably best at this stage to see it move only part way. Save the sacrifices for this weekend.
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Huge shift on the UK. I'm sure it's been mentioned. EC likely to follow.
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We got the big changes - roll the dice scenario - that we needed to get back in the game. The consistent suppression across guidance was depressing. But now we have to live with this huge swings. The UK and EC almost have to adjust now, right? If the GFS is onto something here, it once again shows the weakness of the GEFS. There was nothing in the spread over the past few runs that would have indicated that this kind of NW shift was imminent. With such a potent shortwave trof you would think it was possible, and you would think a few more ensemble members would reflect that. But the GEFS has been looking unimpressed for Monday.
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That's not rain. Worst case it's sleet. TT doesn't show mixed precip. for the ICON. If it's not snow it colors it green. And it's usually too far north with the snow-mix line. That's very likely heavy snow PHL to NYC.
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Let's go. ICON gives us 2. We need to see the ensembles move towards this. The UK and EC last night were so disturbing. If they soften on the hellish Atlantic height field, we can build some momentum here.
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The 12z NAM definitely hints at a path to getting at least a little snow from both. At 84hr it looks similar to the 6z GFS at 90hr, maybe even slightly better. If that trof associated with the coastal really tilts and wraps up quickly, the heights can rise fairly quickly off the east coast. As long as the PV in Quebec doesn't dive towards Maine there should be a chance for the Mon. event.
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The UK completely squashes the wave into SE GA. What a beat down. Looks nothing like the GFS, which is on its own tonight.
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Well at least it rounds the corner off the Carolinas. Digging further south will give it more time and space.
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Solid coating here too, maybe 1/3rd inch. Perfect for a snow walk. Good luck NYC, LI.
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Good call on the low topped. HRRR had this largely drying out, which matched radar returns. Turns out not the case.
