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eduggs

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Everything posted by eduggs

  1. eduggs
    Toronto, Rochester, Binghamton, Scranton. Those are the benchmarks for the precipitation shield. Right now we are out way past Toronto, deep into the Canadian interior. That's obviously terrible for us for snow. If we pull that back to Toronto and then Rochester, that would be progress. When Binghamton gets fringed we're probably looking at a west of I-95 special.
  2. eduggs
    Congrats Cleveland? A more impressive phasing each run...
  3. eduggs
    Those individuals look east of where they are shown on other vendor maps. Maybe the map overlay is shifted west?
  4. eduggs
    The ICON was a hair east at 500, 700, 850, surface etc. Other than that (GFS, CMC, RGEM, ensembles) I have not seen any good news on the 12z so far.
  5. eduggs
    Disagree.
  6. eduggs
    Pressure fields are like topo maps. There can be many relative low and high points. Storms aren't controlled by their point of lowest pressure. Surface pressure is the result of what happens in the upper levels (plus a little surface frictional forces etc). You can identify the absolute lowest pressure point. But it doesn't really matter where you put the L if there are several nearly equal low pressure points.
  7. eduggs
    From the GEFS I would interpret a high likelihood of the captured primary SLP moving into NMD or SEPA. A second relative min. surface reflection is also likely to develop south of LI. I think that's why we see a few Ls there on the ensemble chart. But I don't think that means that the entire storm is shifted east in those cases. If two areas of low pressure are of approximately equal pressure, they may alternate on which is the absolute lowest. The L only gets placed at the point of lowest pressure. That could explain some of the Ls south of LI. It doesn't mean those storms are shifted 80 miles east. It might just mean that in those cases, the inland SLP occluded a little sooner and weakened slightly.
  8. eduggs
    A lot of people are obsessed with the location of the L on the map. But they don't really know what it means or what it does.
  9. eduggs
    I'll pass. mid-level lows ticked west. The surface features are deceptive. It doesn't really matter where the L is placed on the surface chart. There can be many relative minimums in the pressure field. This still tracks and occludes too far west for anything more than a relatively brief thump. We need real shifts, not wishcasting ones.
  10. eduggs
    It think it's much more informative to track changes at H5 than in the surface pressure fields. Surface features can be deceptive.
  11. eduggs
    H5 low does track just south of us. Can't see 700 and 850 but they're probably slightly SE. North of NYC probably stays mostly frozen on that run. A tick better than 06, but very similar.
  12. eduggs
    Maybe the ICON SLP slid east after it occluded or maybe its east relative to the Euro, but the mid-level track does not look east in a meaningful sense for us based on the QPF distribution.
  13. eduggs
    You can tell it's not really south or east by the heavy deform from Altoona to Binghamton and the fact that I-95 is virtually snowless.
  14. eduggs
    84hr 12z NAM vs 82 hr 6z GFS have similar positioning. But the NAM looks sharper and poised for a more aggressive phase. I could see the NAM sending the SLP further west than the GFS with that look, and possibly an earlier occlusion. In any case, I didn't see a distinctly positive change. Everything has been mixed lately, with positives offset by negatives. We want something like the GFS speed with the NAM initial lower latitude. Gotta get that trof axis further east.
  15. eduggs
    The NAM is just 4-6 hrs slower than the GFS. If you overlay H5 when the lows are both near Atlanta, GA (84hr NAM, 82hr GFS), it looks like the NAM is heading towards a more aggressive phase. That would likely push the SLP and associated warm push further west.
  16. eduggs
    It would be nice to see the NAM trend east with the H5 low, not just south. It also looks to be about 6hrs slower than the GFS. If you overlay them taking the delay into account, the NAM is further south but they are similar. The NAM looks to have a hellacious phase thereafter and the trof axis is still too far west. This run was "better" but the improvements were exaggerated IMO.
  17. eduggs
    Meanwhile the CMC is snowing to Detroit and Toronto with heavy deform to Buffalo Take the GEFS trend but toss the mean.
  18. eduggs
    I think there was a little more upper level divergence (i.e., sharper, more negatively tilted trof). Since upper level divergence causes low surface pressure, there was a little more of an inland (primary) surface reflection. That can give the impression of a storm being tugged west, but it really just reflects the evolution of the upper level features.
  19. eduggs
    Yeah the GFS is kind of a wash. The H5 low was initially slightly SE or faster but it also sharpened a hair faster with less confluence in NE. It's not a hopeless look, but usually when there is a signal for a strong negative tilt you need an offshore low to prevent rain at our longitude.
  20. eduggs
    The H5 low cut just south of us unlike the past few runs. Clearly better aloft. Away from the coast might not go above 32F with that track.
  21. eduggs
    OK ICON is a good start to 0z.
  22. eduggs
    ICON first up. This model swings more unpredictably than other globals. But east is better than west at this point.
  23. eduggs
    DC is pretty far west relative to eastern MA. If the whole structure of this thing shifts east, it's still possible they get 2 feet and eastern SNE gets warm-sectored. That would be Very unlikely though.
  24. eduggs
    I know. But we've known for a while that its snowfall algorithm is crap. I think it prints out snow if any level below 700mb is below freezing. Other vendors provide better, though still dubious, snowfall estimates.
  25. eduggs
    Sandy Hook NJ is probably 95% rain on the 18z GFS. StormVista says 12+ StormVista is the champion of the clowns.
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