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eduggs

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Everything posted by eduggs

  1. eduggs
    Lots of surface and snow maps around here. Does anybody look at the upper levels anymore? This does not look like a classic snow setup. Maybe it could work out for MA and northward. But at our latitude it's a wishing and hoping setup. It's kind of the typical miller B with SWFE characteristics. 8 or 9 times out of 10 we see advisory level snows or less with this. 1 or 2 times out of 10 someone in the Mid-Atlantic to our area sees 6-10 (sometimes undermodeled) as the intense overrunning produces banded heavy snow. IMO the mid-level warming with be quick and strong. To me that suggests brief heavy snow to mix.
  2. eduggs
    We do seem to be trending towards slightly less QPF overall and a shorter duration of ice. The eastward shift and slight separation between the initial WAA and whatever follows is noted. Best case seems to be about 10hr snow with 4-6hrs of that intense, followed by brief zr then dryslot. My heart wants to believe the snowier solutions, but my brain tells me otherwise. To me, the synoptics don't favor a long period of snow. This looks like a lower impact version of December 17. I think sleet taints the snow sooner than modeled and a dryslot saves western areas from a washout. Snow accumulations then come down to how intense the WAA snow bands are. If heavy 1-2" bands materialize some areas could put down a quick 6". But if it's more the moderate .5-1" stuff that I expect, we're looking at more like 2-4" followed by ip/zr away from immediate coast. Mixed signals right now on model guidance. In either of the past 2 winters, we're looking ahead here to a major winter storm. It's important to keep that in perspective.
  3. eduggs
    Not much. Maybe by an inch or two with a little more ice. But I think the GFS is a little overdone. I think sub-warning snowfall amounts locally are most likely. But at this point it's really just guessing.
  4. eduggs
    That's a nice look on the EC. Snow to ice to dryslot. Not much rain away from the coast. I continue to like a model blend. Less snow, less rain, and more ice. That's almost always how it goes around here with a primary into Western PA. But the EC continues to look encouraging for a snowier outcome.
  5. eduggs
    Currently light snow falling in Montville, NJ. Seems to be snowing below the radar.
  6. eduggs
    The GFS has a stronger primary which leads to stronger WAA, a bigger snow thump, and more QPF overall. But it also warms faster as a result and has a shorter duration of ip/zr and more rain.
  7. eduggs
    Big differences on the CMC compared to the GFS. The CMC has a much stronger 2nd and weaker primary. As a result it holds onto freezing or frozen precipitation longer with less rain. I think it has the right idea overall with a weak surface coastal reflection and northerly drain. But I think the GFS will be partly right showing a primary strong enough to keep snowfall below warning criteria, warm mid-levels for significant ip/zr, and eventually shift most areas to rain.
  8. eduggs
    Subtract 3 or 4" for sleet liquid equivalent. Looks like 4-7" of snowfall for our area on the 12z GFS.
  9. eduggs
    It looks like about 53°F. The dashed temperature lines are slanted at about 60 degrees.
  10. eduggs
    Don, I agree there is a correlation between local snowfall and the AO. As I said, my issue is the predictability of the AO in the long-term. If today we could know what the AO will be on March 15, we could make a rough statistical assessment of the likelihood of snow on that date. But as it stands we can only make a rough guess. The correlation only really works in hindsight. There is a possibly self-evident but also analogous correlation between snowfall and temperature. When you look back at historical stats, you will find that significant snowfalls are far more likely during periods with below average temperatures than above average. But because of the state of modeling, we don't really have much confidence in specific threats until 7-10 days in advance at the earliest. A strongly negative AO can reverse in 2 weeks. And it's not very predictive of specific threats. Negative AO states can be associated with long periods of dry weather or snowfall. Snowfall just appears less likely with positive AO values. Just like how snowfall is less likely with temperatures above 40F. That doesn't mean it will snow if it's cold.
  11. eduggs
    This definitely could be a hazard. I think the light events - esp freezing drizzle - that most people dismiss are sometimes the most dangerous because unprepared travelers can get caught out. But most of us don't care about hazards. We want snow in our backyards.
  12. eduggs
    The EC goes to sleet in and around the City pretty quickly. Several hours of snow well to the north. Overall a much colder solution than the GFS or even the CMC. I would lean towards a warmer solution, but this is still good to see at this stage.
  13. eduggs
    I don't find the forecasted indices to be especially predictive of wintry weather. By the time we get near late month, the AO may no longer be forecast to go negative. So even though there is a modest correlation between AO, PNA, NAO etc states and snowfall, our ability to predict these states far in advance is limited. There are several more weeks of winter left. Let's sew how the model ensembles look as we get closer. Everything is still on the table.
  14. eduggs
    Talk of past storms is usually a terrible sign for upcoming weather. Honestly a warm and early spring would be nice this year. This might be the first year of my life that I've ever wished for it. I guess I'm still on the fence about it.
  15. eduggs
    Yeah that's pretty solid. But not everyone got three big events. And we could always ask for more To me this winter so far has been all about the big one we got. That was a great storm. Nothing else was particularly memorable.
  16. eduggs
    The UK is almost all sleet, freezing rain, or rain. Same for the CMC. A little bit of snow at the beginning that inevitably mixes faster than expected. The snow maps are garbage. As others have said they convert total liquid equivalent falling in a non-rain column to snow at 10:1.
  17. eduggs
    Guidance for the next 7 days has really gone to shit. It's hard to see how we snow in any of these setups. 2 okay storms and one great one locally... 6", 19", 5" and then a few nuisance events. It could have been a little better, but it could also have been a lot worse.
  18. eduggs
    I agree especially for a possible burst of snow at the onset. But personally I favor ice or rain for this setup because of the forecasted trof axis (it's really far west) and the high 500mb heights.
  19. eduggs
    GFS rains to Quebec City, but the CMC starts colder with snow to ice and then rain. Either way, to me this has a lot of the hallmarks of a big ice storm. Cold antecedent airmass. Deep snow pack. High pressure over Quebec province. Gulf-origin low that heads inland to western PA.
  20. eduggs
    The past 2 GFS runs had no snow (< 0.1 liquid equiv) in NYC for the entire runs. The v16 GFS was similar through 240 hours. And the CMC was only slightly better. Ensembles have also shifted dominant ptype from snow to mix or rain for the next few threats. I think the expectation should start with not much snow. But there are several threats out there in the mid and long range, and modeled snow is not too far off to our north. But things have clearly shifted less snowy over the past 3 days.
  21. eduggs
    We tracked May snow just last year. But realistically, after Mid March, widespread snowfall along the coastal plain is very uncommon. We have about a month of a window left. And for pack lovers, we have about 2 weeks before the sun will quickly decimate almost anything outside the high country.
  22. eduggs
    I am. A lot of people have it in their heads that lots of snow is coming. And it might be. But this is not a slam dunk "pattern." To me it looks icy, then rainy, and then very uncertain towards the long range.
  23. eduggs
    We can't count on consistent threats through mid March. There's no guarantee we get any more snow at all. Of course we could also be in for a big snowy finish. Either way, we probably have 4 or 5 more weeks of legit wintry potential.
  24. eduggs
    The trof axis for the upcoming series of storms looks relatively far west - looks like an ice or rain type setup. If we're lucky it will trend snowier. But we might have run out of our luck for this winter.
  25. eduggs
    mPing and the slightly foggy view on the horizon suggest light snow is moving into the metro west area.
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