eduggs

The GFS is very wet over a 2+ week period. But the CMC is not on the wave train. ECM mostly supports the GFS.

Trof axis from MT to Baja is a little unnerving. But really good moisture feed. Multiple wave threat.

For reference, the ICON has for days shown the "snow streak" that Walt mentioned during the day on Wed. 6z NAM too. Most other guidance is/was less pronounced, so it would be easy to not know what he's talking about. This feature might turn out to be virga or disappear altogether.

Too bad the Wednesday "snow streak" has shifted south of our region in recent days. It would/could have led to a sneakily snowy day without the immediate threat of a change to ice. Since it's kind of a subtle feature I guess there's a chance modeling will bring it back.

God I hope so. It's been a long time since we had a good stretch of events backing events. For me personally it's been even longer due to moving around. The next 2 snow threats locally both look to have a pronounced warm layer aloft. I'm dubious of big snow locally (though it's possible with big QPF at the onlet). These are wintry threats for sure but possibly only light snow accumulations. The big modeled snow is out at day 9 and beyond. I'm hopeful about this period but I just can't get too excited. Too much can go wrong at that range.

This evening was really nice for a few hours. CT esp looked solid on radar. But I think the mixing in ZR and elevated warm layer despite a cold surface is a sign of things to come. There looks to be several chances for snow coming up. Maybe we get lucky with a well timed front end thump. But out to 8 or 9 days or so it looks like mixed events at best. People like Walt forecast for the hazards. This evening, the driving was certainly very hazardous despite minor snow accumulations. But most of us are looking for more significant snow to enjoy outdoors. I'm excited for tracking but not yet optimistic for the goods.

Snow can accumulate in any month provided the temperature is supportive. Snow can certainly accumulate in the spring. My original post mentioned that in recent years, late Feb has been very spring-like, which is true. The reason why I prefer mid-winter snow to spring snow is because it makes outdoor snow-related activities more enjoyable. Melting snow and mud is less enjoyable for skiing, snow shoeing, ski touring, sledding, and walks in the snow.

We are all very tired of LR anomaly charts. The lack of continuity at that range should convince you not to look at them.

December hasn't been snowy either. But even the occasional times it has snowed in March, the sun comes out that afternoon or the next day and the temp spikes to 55F and everything melts. Spring.

1. The MJO often does not progress as modeled 3 weeks out. 2. The connection between MJO phase and local snowfall is relatively weak. 3. Over the past 10 years, the end of February tends to get spring like regardless of MJO phase.

You're right. 1-2" is snow depth mean at 240hr.

Almost no utility outside of 240 hrs. Snow mean in that range is 1-2" across the metro from south to north.

I think that's a bit of a myth. Sure the immediate shoreline doesn't get a ton of ZR, but most of the coastal plane is susceptible. Particularly W, N, and NE suburbs of NYC.

LR is always a crap shoot regardless of how good guidance looks. I don't even like to look beyond 14 days. It almost always leads to a cycle of excitement and heartbreak or just outright depression.

EPS is not snowy outside of NNE. I would advise caution at this juncture unless you don't mind bitter disappointment. The 300mb jet is pretty far north over this period. We are only briefly and periodically tickling the cold. Everything could break right. Overrunning often overperforms locally. We don't need high amplitude waves and they come every 2-3 days. But from memory at our latitude ZR to rain is more likely than snow or snow to IP. Still... I'll be begging for and dreaming of snow.

ECM doesn't seem to show much snow locally during that period. Or even through 10 days. Why do I think it will probably be right? And then a full pattern breakdown into an early spring. GFS and even CMC look decent with several wintry chances. Going to ride the edge at our latitude. Right now I'm thinking rain and ZR mostly.

I guess Feb 9th plus/minus is the best window right now according to ensembles for a possible snow threat. Maybe another low chance threat around the 6th? With the jet stream configuration, anything for the next 2 weeks feels like a long shot.

This next two weeks smells like a cold/dry - warm/rain period with maybe a little ZR mixed in for a wintry appeal. A few model cycles might tease us with front end overrunning snow, but I suspect whichever model shows the least snow will verify best. Hopefully my impression turns out completely wrong or at least things change for the better mid month. Unfortunately over the past 10 years, by mid-Feb it starts to feel like spring.

Better than GFS. But still beyond day 10. H5 looks like a NNE special. But we can always get lucky I guess, especially in mid Feb.

LR guidance looking like dog shit again. Snow threat tracking sure has been painful these past few winters.

Guidance has slightly delayed dampening the wave in recent cycles such that a discernible SLP forms on some guidance - notably the Canadian. Maybe there could even be a few flakes at the tail end for far NW areas. Maybe at the start too. That and a little bit of ZR is what we are reduced to groveling for.

We actually have a hybrid gradient-overrunning pattern forecasted to set up over the next week or so. Unfortunately, modeling has shifted the gradient northward in time over the past several days leading to repeated bouts of wintry precipitation heading into northern NY and NE. That will likely continue to be the risk moving forward.

You are indirectly supporting a point that I have been trying to make for years that long-range averaged anomaly charts are poor tool for identifying regional snow threats and likelihoods. They work OK for 10-14 day regional temperature forecasting. In northern Japan and Hokkaido, you can often see snowy periods coming 2 weeks in advance. But for us, snow is primarily correlated to 500mb features that are not identifiable at a time and space scale resolvable at 2 week lead times. This leads to a hype and disappointment cycle based on pretty looking anomaly charts.

Yup. But this is true of most climate indices and telecons, especially during peak winter climo. The nuances of the 500mb evolution and configuration are key. Each combination is unique, and a minor feature can occasionally lead to local snow (particularly as you gain latitude and elevation) regardless of longwave pattern and telecon state.