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eduggs

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Everything posted by eduggs

  1. eduggs
    This map is overdone is parts of Morris County. There were definitely places that got below 4". The screw zone has really set up over Hunterdon, Somerset, and Morris Counties so far this winter. These areas pretty much missed out on every event. Too far west for the two big coastal storms and too far south to stay frozen for the mixed event that hit Sussex and Orange County.
  2. eduggs
    I was not. That must have been incredible. I've maxed out around 20" while living in several places dating back to the 90s.
  3. eduggs
    ISP reported Heavy snow for 6 straight hourly obs. PVD is at 7 hrs and BOS is at 8 hrs and counting. That's sick. I don't think I've ever personally experienced more than 3 hrs HEAVY SNOW consecutively outside of the Mountains - and I've been around a few decades.
  4. eduggs
    Half inch here since 8:30am. BOS gets half inch in 10 minutes
  5. eduggs
    The BOS radar just pisses me off. I don't think I've ever experienced anything like that. Never in the right place at the right time. No risk of rain or taint, no risk the band just passes through, and hour after hour of cold powdery dentrite dumpage during daytime on a weekend!! I haven't experienced even moderate intensity of snowfall at any moment during daytime this winter.
  6. eduggs
    Wow, nice! That's more than double what I have. Must be some downsloping off the highlands? 8" is pretty significant snow. Nothing like that around here.
  7. eduggs
    Measured about 3.5" in central Morris County. Relatively minor impact here. Only light snow observed. Could be a little subsidence going on locally. It has been a winter of light events. But it has been a perfect Saturday morning for long snow walks!
  8. eduggs
    The heavy snow bands with this really set up exactly where we expected for the past few days. No big surprises so far unlike previous storms. Looks beautiful for the immediate NJ shore across to most of LI. Wow! And it's such a static radar so no worry that the band will quickly move through.
  9. eduggs
    Interesting mesoscale enhancement in the terrain of the Catskills and Taconics and also a mesoscale band in central NJ. Maybe a little downsloping in parts of NNJ. Pretty minor event up here so far.
  10. eduggs
    Was hoping for days this would end up tucked closer to the Outer Banks at this stage. Didn't happen. Well modeled all along as an offshore low. Still could be a really good one for many.
  11. eduggs
    That's a good start! It looks like NYC is going to be straddling the edge of heavy snow for several hours. Close call on really good stuff. Solid dusting off to the west. All surfaces are covered, but rates are light so far.
  12. eduggs
    The radar already appears to be showing where the sharp gradient will set up right along I-95.
  13. eduggs
    Such glorious looking runs for LI to ECT to BOS. Gonna be some serious banding in there somewhere. There are also hints of an outer deform band from coastal NJ through NYC to WCT. If this materializes, it could kind of pivot in place on Saturday.
  14. eduggs
    NAM, EC, UK, CMC actually all in pretty good agreement at this point. With a large QPF gradient, small shifts in the precipitation shield will have a big impact on totals.
  15. eduggs
    So true. I think of it as being tucked into the armpit between NJ and LI. But like you say it's relative to location of interest and also previous runs. Funny thing is we use the SLP as a reference point for model shifts, but the SLP doesn't even generate precipitation. The track and evolution of lift and moisture (e.g, PVA and 700mb RH) determine precipitation. But we barely look at those other features.
  16. eduggs
    Yeah it's all relative. No model runs have been tucked. Even the furthest NW ens member isn't really tucked (well maybe one or two EPS members over the past several runs). This is an offshore low. Fortunately the mid level lows get going early enough and the trof takes on a significant enough tilt to wrap moisture and lift mechanisms pretty far west of the SLP. That's a good thing for most of the coastal plane since it keeps everyone snow.
  17. eduggs
    The EC has been steadily ramping up the QPF... into the 2"+ range that we've been expecting. That's big for approx. 24 hr duration. And the EC won't truly capture banding at the mesoscale. Whoever gets into the mega bands - get outside and experience it. These events don't come around very often... especially daytime weekends.
  18. eduggs
    Even on the 0z UK and CMC, the SLP is pretty far offshore. Synoptically, these usually impact primarily coastal regions and LI.
  19. eduggs
    The UK doesn't spit out those kinds of QPF totals in a snow column at our lat lon very often.
  20. eduggs
    That's the kind of shift on the UK that makes you take notice.
  21. eduggs
    OMG coastal NJ to LI crushed on the UK. NYC in the western edge of the really heavy stuff. Big pivot and deform banding potential there.
  22. eduggs
    We pray it's true. The UK and GFS rarely stay in separate coastal storm camps for long.
  23. eduggs
    LI, and eastern SNE are buried on the CMC!
  24. eduggs
    Big one NYC east, solid west. Out on B&W... but we pretty much knew how it would look from the RGEM.
  25. eduggs
    We have to proceed with extreme caution until the GFS gets on board. It remains a huge caution flag. The background tug will want to pull this east, so that is the default here. I guess we should consider ourselves lucky that the NAM, RGEM, ICON, and JMA threw us a bone this cycle. I'm very wary that this might have been a brief head fake west.
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