eduggs

If you just looked at the Euro at 18hr you'd assume we were all going to get crushed. Such a shame that the SLP is sliding ENE.

If you're a person in, say, Asbury Park, NJ, with an average interest in the weather... how are you supposed to interpret: 20% chance of <1" 50% chance >2" 30% chance of 6"+ (in 8 hours) 10% chance of 10"+ I guess you go with the Watch. But the public doesn't read forecast discussions. I guess people just check their weather apps nowadays.

If you loop the past 2 days of GFS runs, you see our system at H5 shift steadily south and west and become increasingly deep and negatively tilted. However, modeled heights off New England and the Canadian Maritimes have not really risen. As a result, we've seen the surface reflection really tuck up into western NC and push a lot of moisture further north into the mid-Atlantic. But regardless of this early northward push, the entire system inevitably gets shunted eastward, which prevents the precipitation shield from expanding NW up the coast. At some point, the main system could gain enough latitude that even with an eastward shunt most of the area is into plowable snow. But that would mean most of CPA is already in the game.

But we're still looking at SNJ, maybe coastal CNJ, and the Islands off MA for any appreciable snow. Maybe now we're also looking at LI possibly back to NYC as well as the SE coast of MA for an inch or two. That's not fundamentally different than where we were at yesterday. We need to see significant snow getting into northern MD, SEPA before we can start thinking about accumulating snow in and around NYC.

Those plumes are amazingly well distributed. Tiny bit of clustering 0-2" and then good spacing from 2 -20". Right now I would go with some light snow, dusting to an inch for NYC. Still tons of dry air near 700mb. But big bust potential on the high end. I like WS watch to Monmouth Co. NJ. But what's the criteria there?

A lot of the members are tucked, but none really gaining latitude. We need this off DE and for it to move NE and not E or ENE. The GFS does look pretty interesting in the mid- and upper levels though. And I'm glad to see precipitation moving into southern OH - that's been a milepost for me in getting precip. to NYC. Right now tomorrow is shaping up to be a painful day of radar watching and wishing.

That's radar reflectivity, not precipitation at the ground. A lot of that NW of Delaware is virga.

For the past day, there has been a significant north trend (precipitation coverage and amounts) on most guidance in VA, MD, DE and SNJ associated with the southern stream wave. But this trend has been muted further up the coast. It continues to look unlikely that anything meaningful with get north of SNJ. But convection in the South or a further deepening of the southern stream wave shifts could still shift everything further north. I could see CNJ and SEPA getting into the game. But the northern stream height field is really preventing the SLP from moving NE up the coast and expanding the precipitation shield to inland areas.

I only counted 3 out of 30 GEFS members that were good hits for NYC. And the GEFS are by far the most favorable ensemble for snow. But then again the ensemble clusters tend to shift with the operational model in the short term.

Soundings are still really dry in EPA, NJ, CT etc on the GFS. I don't trust the northern edge at all. I love the trends and the GFS looks pretty good at H5 at 30 hours. But the RGEM looks much more reasonable IMO. Same with the 18z EC. Remember when people were calling this wave anafrontal I really really hope this keeps on trending, but I think expectations should remain low north of the Delmarva.

The 0z RGEM trimmed the northern edge just slightly. Just a brush for the Cape. The significant trends over the past day have been in VA, MD, and DE as the southern stream is modeled increasingly robust. But there's not much room for this wave to bend the flow further up the coast due to the northern stream height field, so the precipitation bump doesn't translate much northeast up the coast. We still need a major change aloft to get precipitation NW of coastal NJ and the eastern Cape and Islands.

Recent runs have pushed snow a little further north into NVA, and I could see that continue a little bit. But it may not translate up the coast for the reason you mention. The precipitation edge seems to be running more east-west instead of northeast up the coast.

PHL sounding at 15UTC Monday morning when the GFS shows moderate snow. If this sounding is reliable it would not be snowing at this location. That's a virga storm.

It's possible the problem is mostly confined to the QPF parameter. It could be nailing the synoptics but just not properly accounting for dry air interaction with precipitation. I am a little intrigued by its H5 depiction. A closed low at H5 gets pretty far north this run.

The GFS is printing out QPF with -30C dewpoints at 700mb on the NW edge of the precipitation shield for Monday. I'm not buying it. That's virga. H5 looks relatively impressive for sure, but I think something's wrong with the GFS's QPF algorithm.

Something looks wrong with the GFS's QPF algorithm. There's a pronounced dry layer around 700mb on the sounding throughout NJ and EPA etc. on Monday morning. Dewpoints are like -20 to -30C. And at the same time, the GFS is printing out QPF. That's virga. No way snow is reaching the ground through that dry air if the sounding is right. Granted, H5 looks pretty decent for maybe SNJ to get clipped, but the GFS looks way off with QPF here.

The most IMBY poster on the entire site who lives much further away from the sub-forum majority than NYC or PHL posters, complaining about people posting from other sub-forums...

I remember plenty of rain that year. Wall to wall has never existed at our latitude in recorded history. Wall to wall warm is becoming increasingly possible, but there will continue to be intrusions of cold air following wound up storms regardless of CC.

The GFS is almost certainly too far NW with the precip. shield for Monday. It has placed too much QPF into dry air a few times this winter season.

There will probably be an ultra-plinian volcanic eruption in the next few hundred years that cools global temperatures for a year or two.

I think it's a big red flag for anyone in coastal VA, MD, DE, NJ hoping for snow that the NAM continues to be so flat at this relatively short range.

Then there's the 0z NAM.

Somebody should tally how many times that's been said in the past two months. You're not wrong though.

I feel like we're due for a cutter period. The mean longwave trof should shift more towards the center of the country. That would finally get the midwest their snow and the Lakes region their lake effect. Probably more mixed events for east coast ski country.

That was flukish and only very light snow. The 12z EC is further SW and more wrapped up at H5. It produces a stronger storm and heavier precipitation right near the coast. If you want something more than a trivial snow event locally, IMO this run was much closer than last night's. It's still not there yet, however.