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eduggs

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Everything posted by eduggs

  1. eduggs
    Can we ban the use of the word "pattern" in this subforum?! There are climate patterns. But they don't mean squat for local weather. Storm events don't follow repetitive patterns; each is unique.
  2. eduggs
    The HRRR has backed off on snow for the past few runs. Starting to look minor.
  3. eduggs
    I was feeling confident on this event last night. Now even this one is slipping away from us. The weak shortwave responsible is dampening, but I feel like you never really know with these until nowcast time.
  4. eduggs
    Crazy how the GFS has less than a quarter inch of QPF for the next 10 days in parts of NNJ and SENY. Fortunately the CMC and Euro are wetter, but I know which I think will be right. Gotta watch the entire period from the 25th through the 29th.
  5. eduggs
    Well I won't root against it. But personally I like front-loaded winters. Deep snow leading into a warm pattern that melts and turns to mud doesn't do it for me. I don't think that kind of storm is likely anyway. The only event that I have any confidence in is tomorrow morning.
  6. eduggs
    I think most places are near or above average snowfall for January mostly because of the high-ratio event. And the places that missed that one got hit the storm before or the storm after. I feel like I've missed on everything so far this year, but if I add up the individual light events I'm probably near normal for the month. Nighttime, low impact snow alters the perception I think. Overall though it's been cold and wet... just not particularly snowy. We might shift towards colder and drier for the later part of the month. I would prefer that not happen.
  7. eduggs
    It will be ironic if January ends up much wetter than white considering it will very likely end up below normal temp. wise. Right now the NYC stations have reported .25-.5" frozen liquid equivalent and 2.5" liquid. So cold and rainy in summary. I hope it doesn't end that way.
  8. eduggs
    I agree with that. I could see some light snow getting up to coastal NJ, LI, and maybe even NYC. That would probably mean another significant snowstorm for Cape May. I'd like to think I would feel happy for the snow starved winter enthusiasts down there. But probably not.
  9. eduggs
    Probably true. But it was still better seeing the GFS spit out .2" liquid instead of a trace to a few hundredths. The CMC looked so so. I'm afraid the PVA and lift max out in KY and then decrease for us.
  10. eduggs
    On the good EC runs, there's no shortwave and accompanying vorticity left in TX. All that energy rounds the base of the trof and initiates a tilting of the trof, which is key to getting the storm to our latitude. On every other piece of guidance, notably this 0z GFS, there is too much energy left in TX. That won't cut it.
  11. eduggs
    Disagree. It's better yes, but not a major change. The slower speed makes it seem like a more significant change. If you overlay hr 74 on the 18z instead of hr 78, the changes are easier to see. Or even hr 90 all the way back at 06z. We need at least another two cycles of changes like this to get good snows to our latitude. Back and forth changes will not cut it. The trof on yesterday's big EC solutions was much sharper and more amplified than any current guidance.
  12. eduggs
    The GFS was disappointing. Dry and almost all before sunrise. Crossing my fingers for an HRRR type outcome.
  13. eduggs
    I'd call that a minor change in the right direction. The southern-most vortmax is still on the wrong - upstream side, and the primary shortwave trof is not sharp or amplified enough. This won't get it done, even for DC.
  14. eduggs
    No, not possible. You can see the difference in the sharpness of the thickness lines over TN and KY. On the Euro, the precipitation shield is NW into southern OH and the storm is moving NE. On the NAM the precipitation shield is further SE and the storm is sliding ENE. H5 is not sharp enough on the NAM.
  15. eduggs
    I don't want any of it to fall before sunrise, because then I won't see it. And also it's mid January. The sun has a very minor affect on snow accumulations unless intensity is too light to matter anyway. Once the front passes it won't matter what time of day it is. If there is precipitation behind the front it will accumulate.
  16. eduggs
    Extrapolated it would probably be significant (>4") snow up to southern DE and maybe SNJ. It's still a far cry from the EC runs that were hammering I-95 east.
  17. eduggs
    I'm being a little conservative. We'll probably know sooner than that.
  18. eduggs
    I think there is a low-medium chance this ends up the biggest snow event of the year to date for parts of the subforum (WNJ, NENJ, Rockland etc). I'm rooting for a slight delay in timing so a decent amount can occur after sunrise.
  19. eduggs
    I'm pretty confident it will be. This is our event. I think it will pound for a few hours. I'm a little worried about surface temperatures initially, particularly at low elevations, but all indications are that it cools sufficiently before the precipitation shuts off. I'd be curious to hear how the best lift is aligning with respect to snow growth temperatures. This could catch people off guard, especially with some people looking to the weekend for the big one.
  20. eduggs
    People keep failing this simple math problem - I think as kind of a defense mechanism. Precipitation is 3 days out, not 5 days. At hour 36 we will already know if the trof is sharp enough to work out. The key features are well within short range now.
  21. eduggs
    I know you know what you're looking at. Sorry if I implied otherwise. I use every chance I can - piggybacking on other posts - to encourage people to look at H3, H5 etc... instead of the surface mslp and ptype charts.
  22. eduggs
    Beautiful. I was jealous watching the radar earlier today. I feel like I've missed everything this year. Barely seen any daytime snowfall. But the stats say we're limping along just slightly below normal.
  23. eduggs
    You're looking at the surface outcome. At the surface it looks like a big change. But the trof that makes or breaks this event was always tenuous on the EC. The southern shortwave just barely rounded the base in time to amplify and tilt the trof and it narrowly avoided being squashed and shunted east. A slight change to this fragile setup kills the storm almost completely. In the end if both the EC and GFS were slightly wrong aloft, the end result at the surface is a snowstorm for the southeast coast that moves ENE offshore.
  24. eduggs
    Today's shift flatter was brutal. H5 is far from what we need and time is short. I'm flipping through the big hit EPS members for solace. But I know we are close to entering longshot territory.
  25. eduggs
    The UK is a lot slower than the GFS. We'll take that for now. Nice sharp trof. Looks encouraging for the mid-Atl at least.
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