eduggs

I agree one event (or maybe 2) is more likely than 3 back to back to back. But obviously models don't get confused. Each run is just as likely to be accurate as any other.

The GFS has snow in SNJ on Sat, Sun, and Mon from 3 separate storms. That's unique. Add in Thurs. and you have 4 snow events in 5 days!!

If mixing becomes an issue, the H will be modeled in a different place than it is currently.

The GFS looks closer to recent UK and CMC runs now. It's in the ballpark. We needed this at minimum tonight.

GFS definitely going to be better this run based on H5.

The RGEM was not going to get it done. It was a little flatter than 18z. Same with the ICON. The CMC will match the RGEM. For now, the EC has no support.

The EPS mean QPF is unusually wet for a 4 day lead time. The individual members are locked in for a major east coast low. It's a pretty great look for us. But there are also a lot of tucked, warm, wet solutions mixed in there. That's gotta be a good thing with all other guidance well offshore, but it does once again highlight the potential for this thing to swing a bit inland once again.

Yeah just echoing what's already been said. 18z EC looked as good or better than 12z. EPS the same. So far so good. We don't want a meeting in the middle. We want a full shift to the Euro

LI and CT stole my snow again! I get flurries, they get mod snow-parachutes.

Yeah it was pretty good, but it's still not on the same level as the EC, GFS, UK, and CMC. But if the Deutscher WetterDienst continues developing it, it might soon be.

In Korea and Japan the weenies make fun of the GFS. These aren't your grandpa's Asian models. And the hi-res version of the ICON is go good in the Alps region of Europe that they don't even look at anything besides the ICON and EC.

I am savoring the current snow event, which I have been tracking on radar/satellite all day , just in case the next three all fail. It's weird how it refuses to snow during daylight this year.

A few EC individual members look too wrapped up, just like this past storm. And a bunch look like the GFS. Let's not completely assume any options are off the table. If we do get the shift we're looking for towards the EC, then inland solutions definitely could become a concern. But for now we need to see the GFS camp shift towards the EC. Then we'll worry about ptype if we have to.

You need a storm before it can trend north.

Stock up on the hand lotion. Cracked skin, raw knuckles, and chapped lips are no fun.

I think the EC is the best global domain meteorological model in the world. I'd still vote no snowstorm right now if I had to.

It's not GFS vs Euro. It's snowstorm vs no snowstorm (for us). 1) The no storm idea has support from the CMC, UK, and ICON. And maybe the NAM extrapolated (tenuous). 2) The EC barely gets it done. Even with a very sharp and amplified trof, the heavy QPF is confined to I-95 east. 3) Snowstorms usually don't work out; just basic climo statistics. If something can go wrong, it usually will. There are several potential problems visible on the EC H5 chart that could easily mess this up. We need several key features to cooperate, none of which have support from other guidance.

Disagree. The GFS is not close. And it's not a track problem. It's a trof problem. If the GFS is close to being correct, we have no east coast storm.

Whoever is not worried about the GFS not being close does not like snow IMO. I take the other side - I'm definitely concerned. And we don't really have so much time to shift this. By hour 60 it's clear the trof has no chance. Really even by hour 48 it's pretty much toast. So the next few runs of the GFS better start showing some changes or we're into longshot territory. That said, this run was a tiny little bit better than 12z.

I-80 snow shield in full effect. Protecting us from snow showers.

It doesn't look like that to me at H5. On the ICON, the southern stream wave never really makes it to the downstream side of the trof to start bending the height lines northeastward in the Gulf coast states. The 18z still looks more like the UK or even GFS to me than the Euro. The ICON still needs a lot of work. The surface map is misleading.

Actually 4.5 days until snow begins at NYC on the EC.

The EC starts snow in NYC by midnight Friday night. That's 106 hours out. And the trof that delivers the storm to us is in position by 90 hours. So this is not so long range.

The CMC has moved away from this kind of solution for the past several cycles. The UK has also trended slightly in the wrong direction IMO. The GFS is not really close and not showing positive signs. We really need to see some movement towards the EC (at least among the ensembles) to allow ourselves to begin getting excited.

I-95 bullseye. Major snowstorm on the EC.