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eduggs

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Everything posted by eduggs

  1. eduggs
    Another slight tick better on the 18z GFS and ICON. The ICON is pretty far southeast now with the entire baroclinic zone, especially compared to other guidance. It already rotated a bit of snow through most places on the 12z. Only goes out to 120hrs at 18z though. The 18z GEFS is also yet again better than last run. Much wetter on Sat through the Delmarva and back to the NW compared to 12z. Indicates more members showing a trailing coastal SLP with some precipitation lingering on the cold side.
  2. eduggs
    I don't have any special prognostication abilities. The temperature is partly precipitation dependent. I think low 40s is a reasonable high temp forecast for Sat at this juncture. If it's dry on Sat with the frontal passage scenario shown on the GFS, we should hit 40 (e.g., with ~28 dpt) before cooling off after dark. But if there's precipitation like the EC or ICON show, it would likely be more like upper 30s dropping through the mid and maybe low 30s.
  3. eduggs
    GEPS also noticeably improved over 0z. The longer each cycles avoids trending in the wrong direction, the more I'm compelled to get drawn in a little bit.
  4. eduggs
    Agreed. It's always difficult to accurately model anomalous events involving multiple shortwaves. The inter and intra-model spread does suggest more model jumping likely. I'm just happy to see the snow threat hasn't completely evaporated at this range like just about every "event" so far this year. The mean chances for 1" or 3" of snow are probably very low throughout the east coast coastal plain. But on the other hand, the high end is probably something like a 12-18 hour snow bomb somewhere along the mid-Atl coast. Maybe 1 in 20 chance of that or less. But at least some of the ingredients that make it remotely plausible are there.
  5. eduggs
    We all know it's a low likelihood wintry threat. That's due to the antecedent conditions. But while many on here and other nearby regional forums obsess about low temperatures, tenths of snow accumulation, or long range fantasy pattern changes, I like to focus on mid-range forecasting of wintry events that are actually plausible. A high amplitude longwave trof favorably aligned with the east coast is a major ingredient in snow threats for our region. Yes the other major ingredient is missing, but we've certainly spent lots more pages discussing threats of less potential significance already this winter.
  6. eduggs
    The 12z EC looked like a positive tick to me, which follows the inter-model trends. Gets snow to the distant NW suburbs. Still pretty far off, however.
  7. eduggs
    12z GEFS actually looks pretty good to me for Sat. It's the most threatening run in a while for wintry weather somewhere along the east coast. Red flags for sure, but it's hard to dismiss completely at this non-fantasy range.
  8. eduggs
    12z GEFS looks like the best run in a while: weaker, more suppressed initial wave, more separation, sharper, and higher amplitude follow-up wave, and more precipitation along the coastal plain on Saturday. I'm not trying to overhype this threat. Expectations should be kept low. But I see more here than most of the other "threats" we've seen this Dec-Jan period. I've been shitting on almost every setup all winter, but this looks slightly different to me. If I had to bet, I'd expect this evolves into either an inland, elevated wintry threat or a late developing miss to the east. As usual, so many things have to go right. But at least this time we can imagine a theoretical path to a win.
  9. eduggs
    UK looks interesting. ICON has a little snow. GFS and CMC are disjointed but all show a high amplitude trof with low heights in the southeast. That's one way to get snow in the mid-Atl during a warm regime. Yes we're all fighting an uphill battle due to the antecedent warmth. But the OP runs and ensemble spread do offer some hope that is not out in fantasy land. Midrange, trackable potential hasn't materialized often this winter. Yes it's a low likelihood threat, but it's more viable than almost any day 5.5 threat we've had all winter.
  10. eduggs
    Yeah as soon as it became clear a few days ago that the initial shortwave was going to push into Ontario following the seasonal pattern, we knew we'd be facing an uphill battle with temperatures. That much is a given. But what we do have on most guidance is a high amplitude ridge-trof combo. The base of the trof reaches the GOM. Anytime we get that it catches my attention. Certainty more interesting than tracking the potential for a few tenths of snow that gets sublimated in 20 minutes.
  11. eduggs
    The panels between 141hr and 168hr are not showing up on TT, but there is some snow between those time periods for much of the urban corridor. It's a little warm so not confident about accumulations. But it's a better wintry threat than we've had in a while. And the GFS, CMC, EC, and UK are also modestly threatening of some potential.
  12. eduggs
    Next weekend continues to look to me like the best winter threat we've had in a while. There are red flags everywhere... namely the near total displacement of cold air prior to a potential coastal SLP. But the recent model runs of the GFS, EC, UK, ICON, and CMC all look potentially interesting. Certainty interesting enough to maintain tracking interest.
  13. eduggs
    Interesting 0z runs so far. CMC, ICON, and GFS with markedly different outcomes, particularly after 132hrs of so. All three appear more threatening to me than 12z or 18z. And the GFS, despite showing mostly rain for coastal areas, is so amplified that it gets sub 546dm 500mb heights to northern Florida. It also develops a slightly negative trof tilt and shifts the 500mb low center a bit further south. Not much help this run on the GFS, but it's workable.
  14. eduggs
    There are at least 3 shortwaves directly involved with the evolution of the Feb 11 event. The lead wave is a little better on the 18z vs 12z - it's a little further south and squashed. The problem is that the 2nd wave is sharper/stronger, and the end result locally is the same or worse as 12z. If we could combine features from the 12z and 18z, we'd be closer to something wintry IMO. The other tiny positive from 12z is that the 500mb mean on the GEFS is probably slightly more supportive of a coastal low. Trying to maintain a shred of hope for the sake of tracking enthusiasm...
  15. eduggs
    I'm actually not expecting much of any snow for the rest of this winter outside the interior hills. I think some people forget how early winter typically ends along the coastal plain.
  16. eduggs
    I feel like we've seen this Feb 11th storm already several times this year. A good soaking with a little convection possible.
  17. eduggs
    Yup. With the climatological elevational and latitudinal dependence on top of it. But every 5-10 years this interior coastal plain area gets a payoff with a big coastal. We're just in a rough patch right now. I've lived in MA, NY, NJ... and the only 20" storm I've seen was in NJ. But also by far the worst winter.
  18. eduggs
    Feb 1, 2021 was an excellent storm for northwestern NJ. And for sure the north country has endured some very lean years. The problem for my local region is that was the last decent storm to date. Some of the highest elevations of northern Morris County have had a few 3"+ events since then, but they were very localized.
  19. eduggs
    The foreseeable future looks like basically more of what we've already seen a lot of this winter. Winter confined to far NE regions, particularly Maine. Spring-like to the SW. 735 days since I've observed moderate snow looks to continue...
  20. eduggs
    Right now it looks like more of the same for next weekend. SLP into the Lakes inundates the northeast with warmth at all levels. Shortwave energy further south lags behind and dampens leading to weak and late transfer and more of a frontal passage scenario for any trailing impulse. Snow is confined to northern regions, particularly the far NE. Variability of ensembles giving me some pause, but the OP trend looks pretty clear to me. We really needed that initial s/w to hit a wall and get shunted east, pushing the baroclinic zone further southeast. That does not appear to be happening. So unless the follow-up wave digs to the GOM, we're in trouble.
  21. eduggs
    150hr ensemble means rarely show trofs with negative tilts owing to the blending effect on variable individual members. Trofs will sharpen on the means as you move closer in lead time. SLP will form in the area of strongest upper level divergence. But this region often doesn't match the SLP position of the mean due to the same blending effect.
  22. eduggs
    8 more weeks of winter in NYC? Annual average March snowfall in NYC is meager. After mid March it's downright uncommon. The immediate urban corridor has about 2 weeks of peak winter climo left - that's it. You can extend that to 4 weeks, including late season climo and maybe 6 weeks of fringe season.
  23. eduggs
    This sudden obsession with surface temperatures reminds me of weather enthusiast discussions in Europe, particular England. When there's not much else of interest to discuss, this is what happens.
  24. eduggs
    The event on the 11th looks like a likely east coast winter storm. All three major sets of ensembles have a bit of a different take on the event. I'm not feeling good about it locally. The preceding s/w on Fri really pumps the heights and temps out ahead of the amplifying trof. That continues a seasonal trend of making things very difficult for us as winter weather enthusiasts. We're left hoping for a perfect synoptic evolution. Best threat in a while however.
  25. eduggs
    Monthly temperature averages are not very useful for local snowfall prediction because storm and temperature evolution are so variable on daily time steps. But the map does support a general continuation of the mean storm track being to our west.
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