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eduggs

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Everything posted by eduggs

  1. eduggs
    That's a great Euro run for the entire mid-Atl and northeast coast. The trof is well aligned and sharper than last run. It's also narrow, with another significant trof right on its heels. So I could easily see this getting pinched off or not working out a bunch of different ways. But for now we see how this can work out very well.
  2. eduggs
    The EC is looking good through hr 90 at H5. It's pointless to give the play by play, but still fun for the excitement. I've seen enough from this run to be encouraged compared to other mid-range guidance.
  3. eduggs
    The trend for the 22nd is to de-amplify and weaken the trof. I don't like seeing that. There are plenty more potential threats after that, but that's just more kicking of the can...
  4. eduggs
    Nobody's giving up. But we still need major model changes to get good snows. Once guidance locks onto a miss solution inside 5 days, the odds start to stack against us. It's been a while since we were in a good spot inside 5 days. It's nice that we haven't been shut out this year. But most everything has been nighttime and just off-center up to this point this year. A daytime, Saturday snow event would be perfect. A GFS trend towards a sharper trof would be huge to see this evening. But I'm not optimistic based on ensembles and what I've seen so far from the UK, CMC, and ICON. I expect the Euro to be fairly far offshore for Saturday too.
  5. eduggs
    The northern stream storm was too strong this go around. Next weekend it looks too weak. Meet in the middle and we have something.
  6. eduggs
    The GFS still looks pretty far off at H5. GEFS still unfocused with a broad timeframe of potential threats. I almost feel like we gotta root for the Thursday "anafrontal" event now. It would be great to have a singular significant threat to track this week, but it might never happen. We gotta take what we can get. Even a dusting this evening to freshen up the muck would be great.
  7. eduggs
    Nice job by some of the models showing the snow gradient. The cold really hung tough to the north. The duration of rain in northern Sussex, Orange Counties etc was really short.
  8. eduggs
    So far everything looks right on schedule. Anybody calling for an earlier than modeled change-over was wrong.
  9. eduggs
    Kicking than can... end of the month... February... March...
  10. eduggs
    Surface temps have looked pretty well-modeled to me, maybe even a touch too cold locally. It did seem like surface temps were a little colder than modeled today to our southwest in VA, MD, SEPA etc. Maybe the interior cold is better than modeled, but the coastal areas seem close to what was expected.
  11. eduggs
    That's impressive surface cold up there! Much different east of I-287 or south of I-80.
  12. eduggs
    Sussex and maybe northern Passaic in NJ as well as Orange and maybe northern Rockland in NY should hold pretty long tonight. It looks like anybody southeast of the higher terrain in Morris County NJ will succumb to the warming. There's a pretty strong temp gradient right now across this area.
  13. eduggs
    Widespread mid and upper 20s in NENJ, even into central Morris County. I was hoping the relatively cold surface temps in MD and SEPA would translate up to our area, but they haven't. It's definitely warmer than I was hoping as the light snow begins. Close proximity to the Ocean.
  14. eduggs
    I haven't looked in a while. But it sure looks like the 12z NAM - esp 3km - increased frozen amounts in NEPA, NNJ, I-84 corridor etc. That's a major event if correct. The HRRR is still impressive as well. The rain still comes in quickly, so it probably comes down to whether or not the cold can hold on for an extra hour or two. The less wintry RGEM looks closer to what I expect. Weird that the Mesos aren't hitting the ice harder.
  15. eduggs
    It is eerily similar Almost a perfect overlay if you match up the right time frames. In fact, at quick glance it almost looks like next weekend's storm would be more likely to cut. But most of the vorticity for next weekend is modeled upstream with PVA heading east or southeast. Today the vortmax has rounded the bend and PVA is moving northeastward. Such a subtle difference.
  16. eduggs
    The LR anomaly charts identify fantasy patterns that might allow a potential threat to materialize. And sometimes those patterns turn out to have been fantasy (i.e,., model errors). Other times the potential threats do appear, but they affect Nashville or Cleveland. So the success ratio of snowstorm hunting is very very low. So I don't look out past day 10 at all because I think the guidance is almost as likely to give a head fake in the wrong direction as it is to correctly signal something favorable. The error bars associated with any metric out beyond day 10 are huge.
  17. eduggs
    I have no problem with using the models - both OP and ensembles - to forecast snowstorms in the extended medium range. I'm a vocal supporter of modeling and I believe guidance is clearly better than ever. My problem is using LR indices and anomaly charts to hunt for snowstorms. It's fine if you're an energy trader, but it works poorly for local weather forecasting.
  18. eduggs
    That's all tainted with the benefit of hindsight. None of that was clear at the time. The fluke 0.4" liquid equivalent snowstorm occurring near the time the PNA was changing sign was a coincidence. The Pacific is still flipped right now - no snowstorm. And the recent anomaly maps have looked pretty classic for a big east coast snowstorm.
  19. eduggs
    I'm getting more excited by the minute. I didn't realize how narrow the warm sector was until I saw that temp. map. With the early occlusion, relatively cold low level temps push in pretty quickly from the southwest. Most of us can sleep through the brief period of rain and warmth, as long as the winds don't awaken us.
  20. eduggs
    Might be accumulations in NJ and PA with those instability snow showers on Monday. I bet that translates into CT too.
  21. eduggs
    Hmmm. Colder than I thought. The cold is holding well east of terrain in the Berks, Cats, and NWNJ. Nice to see.
  22. eduggs
    I look at ensembles in the medium range. I look at op runs in the short range. Most meteorologists are slower to adjust than models. They also think they are smarter than the models.
  23. eduggs
    Models have known biases. Meteorologists have mostly unknown biases.
  24. eduggs
    I definitely would FWIW.
  25. eduggs
    Well one run of the GFS impacted us with the Ocean storm. And several model runs, particularly on the GFS, got plowable snow to NYC with the SNJ event. But I agree, guidance consistently showed those not impacting us. My point is that storms don't always trend NW, especially once models are locked in.
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