eduggs
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Everything posted by eduggs
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At first I was thinking Sullivan along 17 too. But some guidance is showing shadowing there with such a strong easterly flow. Areas along the eastern edge of terrain should do better.
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Without thinking about it too much I'd vote eastern Catskills (e.g., Hunter) or Mt. Pocono, PA as a backup. Long drives though.
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The RGEM is still going bonkers with the storm. H5 low in SW VA and SLP way west. Seems we're always rooting for major model busts to get the good stuff.
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It's true soundings support snow for much of the event NW of NYC. And that would be a heck of a thump. But I gotta suspect somewhere around 800-850 goes above freezing and a lot of it ends up sleet or ZR. But it definitely could produce warning snows well north and west.
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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17
eduggs replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Yup. Miller classification is an oversimplified binary classification system from the 1940s. There's no deep meaning behind it. This was before the satellite era. Meteorological analysis is much more sophisticated these days (outside this forum). -
The NAM already looked unfavorable at hr 48. The progression from that point looks fairly reasonable. All guidance is in pretty good agreement.
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The 18z NAM is UGLY. Can't buy a positive trend. The inland track is well entrenched.
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If we could just figure out why the HP is doing that...
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The deform almost gets to Cleveland on the 12z UK. Just light snow accumulations there now. Maybe next run will get them.
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Toronto, Rochester, Binghamton, Scranton. Those are the benchmarks for the precipitation shield. Right now we are out way past Toronto, deep into the Canadian interior. That's obviously terrible for us for snow. If we pull that back to Toronto and then Rochester, that would be progress. When Binghamton gets fringed we're probably looking at a west of I-95 special.
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Congrats Cleveland? A more impressive phasing each run...
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Those individuals look east of where they are shown on other vendor maps. Maybe the map overlay is shifted west?
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The ICON was a hair east at 500, 700, 850, surface etc. Other than that (GFS, CMC, RGEM, ensembles) I have not seen any good news on the 12z so far.
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Pressure fields are like topo maps. There can be many relative low and high points. Storms aren't controlled by their point of lowest pressure. Surface pressure is the result of what happens in the upper levels (plus a little surface frictional forces etc). You can identify the absolute lowest pressure point. But it doesn't really matter where you put the L if there are several nearly equal low pressure points.
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From the GEFS I would interpret a high likelihood of the captured primary SLP moving into NMD or SEPA. A second relative min. surface reflection is also likely to develop south of LI. I think that's why we see a few Ls there on the ensemble chart. But I don't think that means that the entire storm is shifted east in those cases. If two areas of low pressure are of approximately equal pressure, they may alternate on which is the absolute lowest. The L only gets placed at the point of lowest pressure. That could explain some of the Ls south of LI. It doesn't mean those storms are shifted 80 miles east. It might just mean that in those cases, the inland SLP occluded a little sooner and weakened slightly.
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A lot of people are obsessed with the location of the L on the map. But they don't really know what it means or what it does.
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I'll pass. mid-level lows ticked west. The surface features are deceptive. It doesn't really matter where the L is placed on the surface chart. There can be many relative minimums in the pressure field. This still tracks and occludes too far west for anything more than a relatively brief thump. We need real shifts, not wishcasting ones.
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It think it's much more informative to track changes at H5 than in the surface pressure fields. Surface features can be deceptive.
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H5 low does track just south of us. Can't see 700 and 850 but they're probably slightly SE. North of NYC probably stays mostly frozen on that run. A tick better than 06, but very similar.
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Maybe the ICON SLP slid east after it occluded or maybe its east relative to the Euro, but the mid-level track does not look east in a meaningful sense for us based on the QPF distribution.
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You can tell it's not really south or east by the heavy deform from Altoona to Binghamton and the fact that I-95 is virtually snowless.
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84hr 12z NAM vs 82 hr 6z GFS have similar positioning. But the NAM looks sharper and poised for a more aggressive phase. I could see the NAM sending the SLP further west than the GFS with that look, and possibly an earlier occlusion. In any case, I didn't see a distinctly positive change. Everything has been mixed lately, with positives offset by negatives. We want something like the GFS speed with the NAM initial lower latitude. Gotta get that trof axis further east.
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The NAM is just 4-6 hrs slower than the GFS. If you overlay H5 when the lows are both near Atlanta, GA (84hr NAM, 82hr GFS), it looks like the NAM is heading towards a more aggressive phase. That would likely push the SLP and associated warm push further west.
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It would be nice to see the NAM trend east with the H5 low, not just south. It also looks to be about 6hrs slower than the GFS. If you overlay them taking the delay into account, the NAM is further south but they are similar. The NAM looks to have a hellacious phase thereafter and the trof axis is still too far west. This run was "better" but the improvements were exaggerated IMO.
