Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Based off the morning data, Monday appears to have solid Slight Risk potential. -
M0.46" Reisterstown yesterday. This brings me to 1.49" for the month of June. Hope we can manage another half inch.
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^try TIAD (Dulles) or TDCA (Reagan). Better view than Dover.
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Yes St. Mary's and Calvert are getting the goods. Might actually see some flooding out of that training line of storms setting up.
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Couple of days ago, WPC had 72 hour QPF forecast of close to 3" for I-95. Too far west once again.
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Looks like after this round that's it for today. CAMs went really quiet for late this afternoon and evening.
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I firmly believe that CAMs and mid range guidance have a south and west bias for rainfall maximums in this part of the country.
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https://www.srbc.net/our-work/fact-sheets/docs/flood-summary-june_2006.pdf
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Why not both? I still think most of this slides to the east and we get missed again west of the Bay.
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Get out of my head.
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TDCA radar showing some heavier cells trying to organize in northern Virginia. Even a few CGs detected near Tappahannock ASOS. Looks like this might be the activity that some of the CAMs were advertising for early this afternoon.
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With M0.12" overnight, I've finally cracked an inch of rain for the month of June.
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We don't do well in the rainfall department with closed lows over Tennessee. The NAM was the first to pick up on this more southern solution early on and the Euro appears to have lagged the most. Our "good" track for closed lows that meander like this are over central Kentucky or southern West Virginia.
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Need a more uniform stratiform rain though to really make a dent. Something like 2" - 4" over a couple of days. Nickle and diming a half inch over 2 days won't work.
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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Let's see how this looks on Sunday afternoon, but there's definitely some potential. -
Really hope we can manage and inch of rain tomorrow. Only M0.62" for all of yesterday.
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M0.53" Reisterstown
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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
EML and dews over 70 degrees with NW flow. Those are our winnable setups. -
Finally a legit steady, soaking rain.
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M0.2" Reisterstown
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With the exception of the HRRR, just about the entire 12z suite has less than 0.75" of QPF for everyone west of the bay through 12z tomorrow. Really was hoping this would be a better rain event.
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Wonder if this maybe enhances precip for S. Maryland and Delmarva later this afternoon?
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Yes. The ROC staff are amazing. Not sure if I mentioned this, but I was able to visit SPC, WFO Norman, and OK Mesonet back in April. While there, I spoke with a staff member who collaborated with ROC personnel during some KOUN maintenance. It's amazing how efficient they are. It's like a NASA checklist and they don't show up unless they have all of the equipment already. No waiting for parts to arrive.
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From what I've been told, there's prework inside the dome that can be done with this kind of repair. Eventually the ball will have to be taken off, but you can do a decent amount of prep.
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From WPCs mouth to God's ear.
