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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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Actually, pretty decent i think. It usually does rather poor here irt snowfall. Tends to underforecast amounts and is a bit high on Temps.
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Hopefully 3k Nam falls inline with the others on 0z. It kinda looks like an almost disconnect into separate moisture fields. Could be suggesting what kmrx mentioned as a possible issue; Dry column and saturation.
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Good points as usual John. It's definitely getting very interesting.
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That's it ! A bit early but... Lol. If that comes to fruition, just say part luck and old school forecasting. Lol
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Yeah, good possibility. Also, not so sure this Nina follows typical nina progression in Feb.. At some point, I believe the -NAO will return and actually work for us. Also, some late Nina Winter Storms occurred in '72 and 75. Feb. and March respectively. I'm probably wishcasting a bit here, ha ha, but, also looking at a couple 2nd year Ninas that had that progression and presenting the possibility. Also, looking at the -NAO Episodes and extrapolating with it.
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Thought I'd mention this as it may be of interest to some on the board. There appears to be an apparent problem with several of the Model runs snowfall projections for portions of the area, in particular Lee County and adjacent areas of which is obvious based on topography, as well as historical data. Could be a grid problem as Carvers noted while discussing with him. I'll speak with KMRX tomorrow and see what they know regarding this. This area is not known for the prominent snow hole as Kingsport and bordering communities adjacent to there. It actually looks as though the distinguished great Valley lower snowfall amounts area on the models are west of the area they should be, based on the Valleys topography
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There is a problem with several of the Model runs snowfall projections for portions of the area, in particular Lee County and adjacent areas of which is obvious based on topography as well as historical data. Could be a grid problem as Carvers noted while discussing with him. I'll speak with KMRX tomorrow and see what they know regarding this.
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What a shock it's gonna be !
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That one's definitely looking good for us.
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Woah !!! 76 on Jan. 30, '02 is the highest January Temp ever recorded in Jonesville. Amazing stuff !
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That is absolutely amazing ! 69.4 here but, more clouds than sun so far today.
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2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Daniel Boone replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Yeah. They're bouncing around like crazy at short range. About the worst I can remember. Seems medium range is better. About shameful, lol -
Damn Nam
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I have pondered that irt the NAO too. I believe that is very well possible as the trough deep n2 the SW pumped the gom/se Ridge to the point it nearly connected. Had at least a semblance of a SW HP been there, the strong -NAO would of worked it's magic, I believe.
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Excellent post and points made !!! With the warming in the PAC in the area of PH 7 to 8 MJO reflection, things should continue to get more favorable moving forward from the PAC standpoint. Hopefully, HLB continues to be favorable,of which I think is likely overall, although it may be mainly the NAO. Could be a Jan and Feb 1985 similarity, of which John has been suggesting as a real analogous possibility.
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Some of the biggest Snowfalls I've seen were from overrunning events.
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Same here. Looked like a foggy August morning.
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Answered it just as I posted John, lol. Yeah, that confounded AH is definitely our Thorn.