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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    By comparison here is the GEFS. Notice that having a weaker RNA makes a big difference? The Blocking is further south here, however it does not matter due to the fact that the RNA is weaker. I pointed out before that the RNA and NAO are flexing at the same time for 2 years now. WEAKER RNA/NAO combination works better than a stronger NAO/RNA. IMO the LA NINA is Strongly coupled and driving this RNA. We may break the lowest snowfall record is the RNA does not relent. Still, one should not look at this year as more hopeless than 97/98 01/02, for those years flukes their way to snowfall. We have just not been able to do so this year as of yet.
  2. EastonSN+
    So THIS is the point in time that is critical. As Don alluded to snowfall drops as the RNA goes below 1. This is still a strong RNA. The difference between a 10/11 and all other years where the block helped us snow as compared to the years it did not is either the RNA was weaker allowing for the PV to get squeezed underneath the block (flatter trough out west) OR the deep RNA was transitioning to weak or neutral. The look below would fail in 1920, 1960, likely anytime in post 1900 history. Now, what happens after this frame is key. Does the RNA rise? If so as the block continues to migrate west we have an opportunity. If the block just merges with the -EPO then the cold will still be trapped west and we ridge and fail. Long story short. Blocking can be historic if we have a -1 or transitioning RNA, or become useless if the RNA is too deep. The SER/NAO linkage is NOT a driver, but rather a wave affect from the deep trough out west. Side note. The GEFS looks better than the EPS even though the GEFS never goes back to 8 while the EPS does.
  3. EastonSN+
    It was the third wave that held all the potential not the Cutter. The cutter was record intensity which killed the third wave. As for this block, if the RNA is too strong we strike out and it links with the SE ridge. We need it to weaken. At least 01/02 and 97/98 lucked into one event. This may not. We shall see.
  4. EastonSN+
    The funny this is the block in December DID move from an east to a west block and eventually hooked up with the EPO. Two things about December. 1.) Horrible luck, if the second wave was normal strength the third wave could have clocked us. Then this entire winter is just a bad winter instead of a 01/02 replica 2.) The RNA started off way too strong. This hurt the first event which ironically is half of this forums only snowfall I would take a repeat of the December progression in a heartbeat, however like December early on the RNA will be too deep and cause havoc to start. We need the RNA to rise quicker to -1 or better.
  5. EastonSN+
    Really depends on where your location is in the sub forum. Away from Long island, coastal NJ it can still work (obviously north of 84). Of course timing too (cloud cover arrives later in the overnight to allow for more radiational cooling, precip arrives 2 to 4 am, intensity picks up in the AM to compensate for the rising sun).
  6. EastonSN+
    Another observation. Since 2013 generally speaking Decembers have been warmer/less snowy and our March/springs have been colder and snowier (even a recent white rain/dusting in May). Thinking aloud, perhaps the IO warming works against us with longer wavelengths and actually works in our favor when the wavelengths shorten?
  7. EastonSN+
    The MJO may finally head into phase 8 at the largest amplitude of the year which can finally lessen the grip of the RNA. EURO is much quicker than the GEFS so I hope it's correct. GEFS is after the 10th. Posted the ECMWF above.
  8. EastonSN+
    Yeah here in CT was white rain for hours. Close.
  9. EastonSN+
    Hey Chuck you need to post in this forum more often. Been reading your posts for years you notice these things.
  10. EastonSN+
    EURO has a quicker loop into 8 (if some are concerned about mid March temps).
  11. EastonSN+
    Chuck seems to be on to what I have been noticing. Is this the IO warming that is causing this? Does anyone know or have a theory on the catalyst? This may be the recent NAO SE ridge linkage answer. It's more the EPO RNA intensity than Atlantic water temps. If you have a full latitude trough in the west guess what, there is no way you can avoid a ridge linking to the NAO.
  12. EastonSN+
    PNA and NAO in lock step again. Still no idea as to why for two years they are completely sinked.
  13. EastonSN+
    95/96, 02/03, 10/11, 13/14 and 17/18 were great years for CT. 12/13 was ok with one historic storm.
  14. EastonSN+
    GFS followed EURO
  15. EastonSN+
    Yeah I posted the total snowfall map earlier, which was a perfect reflection of a seasonal snowfall map from the 80s. Snow north and south of us.
  16. EastonSN+
    I just posted a quote from Storm Chaser Chuck on his view that there is a +EPO/-PNA/-NAO correlation and that it's hard to snow in that setup. I think it's honestly a strong coupled La Nina forcing the Aleutian ridge and subsequent downstream effect. I bet this setup leads to "south based" NAOs and failed NAOs. We saw the effect in December. We get to see the effects during shorter wavelengths now.
  17. EastonSN+
    I mean with a deep RNA it will be tough. That coupled with the fact that this year has been northern stream dominate argues against this solution. However it would be funny if CPK had a ratter while DC had an average snowfall season.
  18. EastonSN+
  19. EastonSN+
    This would hurt and be fitting for this year.
  20. EastonSN+
    Interesting.
  21. EastonSN+
    Analogs are ok for a loose comparison. Winters are like snowflakes they will never be identical. Although 01/02 and this year are closer than any 2 winters I can remember. That year had a failed NAO as well.
  22. EastonSN+
    Explain? How deep was the RNA and how strong was the NAO? Also was there an Aleutian ridge? Was the enso the same?
  23. EastonSN+
    In the end, I want to see a south based block when the RNA is weak or neutral more than once. I think there is a connection between deep RNAs and south based Blocking.
  24. EastonSN+
    What we need to track is the connection between deep RNA and NAO failures and position. Last year was a great example, deep RNA and south based Blocking, the METS call the NAO bootleg and an atmosphereic furnace and not a true block.
  25. EastonSN+
    If it was SST driven the 2021 standard blocking would have been south too but it was not.
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