EastonSN+

Yup only 1 above average snowfall winter starting 18/19. Thank goodness for 20/21 (great season).

Yeah we need another atmospheric shakeup like the 15/16 super El Nino to break this up. 3 below average snowfall winters since that year (18/19, 19/20, 21/22 and potentially this year).

Ha yeah. I feel like we are in the late 90s again. 5 below average snowfall seasons in 6 years. Extremely warm with one absolute ratter.

I hope the warmth is joined by dry weather so we all can enjoy the outdoors. Nothing worse than 55 and drizzle.

Yeah I don't think there are many out there denying that it's getting warmer.

I look at it as it's a real small sample size. The boom from 00 through 18 ended with 18/19 for which we have seen 3 below average snowfall seasons in 4 years. Even if this year ends way below normal it would not compare to the futility of 96/97 through 01/02 where we only had 1 above average snowfall winter in 6 years! You may be correct, but it may be for the reasons we had in the late 90s, or the 70s or 80s.

It's just the CFS weeklies, however may be somewhat correct given the MJO plots.

I think winters will end up shorter, however snowfall will remain relatively static as snowstorms will yield greater amounts when they do happen. Eventually yes we MAY end up like DC down the road, but I think that will take many years. That last warming period took hundreds of years to reach it's peak. Sure we are accelerating it but it will still take a while.

Yeah, storms are more intense from the warmer waters and have paid dividends in January February and March. Too warm in December it appears.

Found this interesting, wonder how the weather was in this period. Looking back in history may give us a glimpse into what the current warming will bring. Greenland Analyses from central and southern Greenland (see Greenland Stable Isotopes) show that this region did experience a Medieval Warm Period (culminating around ad 1000), a Little Ice Age cool period (ad 1500–1900), and warming to the mid-twentieth century (Alley and Koci, 1990; Cuffey et al., 1994; Dahl-Jensen et al., 1998). In contrast to some other regions of the Arctic, such as northern Alaska and Siberia, Greenland did not have renewed warming through the latter decades of the twentieth century. The Medieval Warm Period was approximately 1 °C warmer than present, and the Little Ice Age 0.6 °C cooler than present, in central Greenland.

Although I like warm weather in general (outdoors, energy savings), I hate how boring weather tracking is and how dead the forum gets. Looks like we are getting a third loop in the MJO. CFS weeklies have a trough in the east mid way through. This likely aligns with phase 7/8 and associated lag.

Similar to 14/15.... Jk but who knows.

Would the persistent ridge off the east coast help a bit here?

Also check that confluence to the North. The trough needs to sharpen on the GFS. The Pacific jet screams in and pushes the trough east. Would be a fast mover.

Definitely an improvement over 6z. Would probably have to be a miller b as northern stream is more dominant. CMC digging a bit much.

I mean I think the CMC is a bit overboard, however a minor to moderate event is not 0%.

Hey Bluewave serious question - would the persistent SE ridging help bring this west?

Wasn't 19/20 an El Nino? Or was it neutral?

Thanks for this. Absolutely pathetic by the ensembles.

Looks like the same old path, so perhaps we do, for the 3rd time, get into 7 and briefly 8. Would help.

Ha yeah I have been shaken by the dreadful ensemble performance. It's a la Nina so an RNA is likely most of the time. To me the question is how long. The MJO plots may hold the key to that

Yeah just took a look at the ensembles, not pretty at all through day 15.

Too far off the coast but 500 mile shifts are nothing these days.

Low pressure # 15 please