EastonSN+

I don't see how we do not get snow events with this look

I am still holding out hope to reach average, however will need 11. Ideally we get a biggie and torch, however more likely if I reach out will be from messy overrunning. Thought the ensembles looked good but I could be miss interpreting them.

Yeah 1983 was 16 and 2016 was 11.5 here.

You didn't get 20+ in February 2006? Here in SW CT only experienced 3 20 plus. 27 in 1996. 20.5 in 2006. 22 in 2013.

Thanks Don, given the depicted look of the ensembles I would not be shocked, but surprised if at least parts of the forum do not see more snow. ORH wxman in the NE forum had a great write up on the upcoming pattern in the March thread quoted below.... "The PNA index just measures where the height anomalies are within the PNA domain loading pattern. So because we have higher heights out toward the Aleutians and lower heights over western Canada, it’s going to produce a -PNA (RNA) number. It doesn’t mean the PV has to get sucked down into Washington and Oregon like it did back in December during that obscene pattern. The PV being over Hudson Bay will help with overrunning threats that might otherwise be cutters. You can see though how the mean trough is further east by the end of EPS run though. It’s more sitting over the central US instead of further west so it would give us a better shot at a Miller B. "

Do you find it odd that the RNA is that severely negative yet the polar vortex is still north of us and has not slide into the RNA? Is this depicted model spread or is this possible?

Not sure but had 16 when I was in Norwalk.

This may be nice?

Schools closed. Half inch of sleet.

Is this look even possible? Look like the PV north of us even with a deep RNA? Is this just ensemble spread?

Again don't think I have ever seen this before, probably more to do with ensemble spread than actuality, but.....

Half inch of sleet now. 19 inches on the year Easton

They were too far east in Boxing day.

I think we are going to see wild temperature swings in March. TRUE torch conditions (not 50 degree fake torch days that average out to a record month), however 60 degree plus days. I also think we will have strong cold shots when cutters pass. I am hesitant to say "winter is over" as this is a perfect weak trailing wave light snow event setup. Just looking at the GFS show multiple coating to 2 inch events. We will not have the pesky negative NAO to cause compression this time (December was a disaster cool and dry).

Up to half inch of sleet. Schools closed. 19 inches on the year.

Lol. Nature always has a way of evening everything out. Last year Southwest was best, this year Northeast Hopefully next year Northwest gets it

2019 was the last big March and was not SSW related. 11.5 here from 2 separate storms. 2018 was SSW related. But the big Marches of 2017 and 2015 we're not SSWE related.

Well the GFS somehow gave me more snow this run. I guess there's that

Wouldn't 10 to 1 be inaccurate for my area due to sleet? Kutchera seems to account for the different ratios.

Why would I not use Kutchera? 10 to 1 will not show the correct amounts due to sleet.