EastonSN+

It flips to a positive NAO?

I don't have the EPS so not seeing this RNA that Allsnow is referencing. Is it so negative that we get last year's shredded affect? I thought we WANTED an RNA when blocking is intense.

Why can't we snow with an RNA? It worked in 2010.

Had same thing in 2010, so we can overcome with the right track and strength.

Which blocking set up lasts longer? Or are there too many variables to determine? Forky mentioned this is similar to 2010, which lasted approx 6 weeks. 2018 lasted about the same. Both resulted in massive snowfall totals of course.

I have to admit I am one of the posters that worry about how long the blocking holds before it even begins! Hoping for something as long as 2018 or 2010/11, however I think those were SSWE driven? One good sign is this MJO wave is getting into phase 8 at a higher amplitude than the last (and perhaps 1 at a low amplitude before dissipating).

Borrowed from the Middle Atlantic forum.

That could be a lot of fun!

Yeah it's likely an anomaly since it is south of all CT and surrounded by water. Therefore, should be disregarded outside of trend analysis. Norwalk used to have a reporting station years ago. Hopefully a legitimate station to represent coastal SW CT accurately is opened.

Thanks again. Unfortunately I can guarantee it's not an coast vs. inland issue. Lived in Norwalk (coastal town) my whole life until September 2014. BDR 100% under reports by a large margin. Not saying inland does not do better cause they do, just saying that the BDR records are useless. BDRs average annual snowfall was less than Central Park at one point which makes zero sense outside of extreme blocking events like 09/10. I remember storms where all of long island changed to rain way before I did, measured more snow IMBY than LGA and somehow, someway Bridgeport recorded LESS snow than LGA and Central Park. Overrunning events so not situations where a north wind from a coastal enhances LI snowfall rates. I wish SW CT has a legitimate reporting station such as LGA, JFK, Central Park etc. to reference. Could there be a legitimate reason why this airport under reports by such a large amount? Maybe. One theory is that since this airport is on a peninsula in LI sound that water temps and wind blow-off could affect the totals. Sorry to vent again but so frustrating.

I do want to add that yes the 90s stunk outside of 93, 94 and 96.

Thanks for this. One thing I would like to throw out there is Bridgeport under reports by at least 20%. So every single town, including Bridgeport itself outside of the Stratfield airport where the measurements are taken, are wayyyyyy higher than the above. At no point was any town in SW CT lower than 30 for average annual. BDR records are unfortunately useless For instance I was Living in Norwalk on the coast 2000 through 2010, and only receive 3 winters of less than 36 inches. Eclipsed 40 inches 5 times with one at 67 and one at 52. Worst was the blizzard of 1996 where BDR reported 15 while every other town 25 plus. Pathetic on their part. Sorry to vent, however didn't want viewers to believe that SW CT averaged less snowfall than all surrounding areas

I think one thing that is lost is the fact that our 30 to 35 average annual snowfall is low enough where we can reach average in almost any background state. Even last year IMBY I was only 8 below average from only 1 month of winter weather. Couple the above with a predominantly negative NAO, EVEN EAST BASED, and we can easily reach average. This is why people get excited for a neg NAO. As long as we stay away from the pig (trough below Alaska), or a super El Nino we are in the ballgame. OT - also helps that we are on the northeast coast where a Feb. 2013 or February 2006 can pop.

Found this for GEFS (could not locate EPS.

I do have a question, is phase 7 warm in January in a La Nina? I know it's cold in December. May become important as we keep looping 5 through 8.

What I love is seeing blocking remain in place. The PAC keeps re shuffling duo to MJO loop, but the blocking keeps us in the game throughout.

850 temps couple days later.

Agreed more SW is KU worth, however the ridging to the west would allow for overrunning snows do to temps.

Continues

I do like this

Let's see what the GEFS shows.

Yeah weird but looks ok to me.

Yeah GEFS squishes the SE ridge while EPS creates more of a battle ground. Difference likely that GEFS goes further into Phase 8 while EPS quickly kills the wave. Both have blocking so EPS should still be ok for SNE even northern half of Jersey.

Yeah will likely come down to how much blocking we get, and if the MJO really does get into 8 as the charts suggest.

I did not like the overnight GEFS and EPS ensembles. Hopefully just a one day blip.