EastonSN+

Hey Don if that Dip in PNA is false, we could have the -AO, PNA and MJO phase 8 line up! The missing piece would be the NAO.

I honestly do not understand these maps. Is that representative of a stretched PV?

Nice dip in the AO.

Potential for phase 8 by EOM.

There were 3 1970 to 1999. 4 if you throw in 2001/2002. 1996 through 1999 was 10.0, 5.5, 12.7, 16.3. Throw in 2001 to 2002 of 3.5 and that is a terrible stretch.

Close to a moderate event.

Moisture starved.

Was hoping the CMC would follow. However it may show a better 2nd wave.

The PNA spike along with the continued -AO should at least keep things interesting.

Is it possible for a wave to move this fast? 2.5 days in 7?

There were plenty of extremely warm winters and below 10 inch seasons. I literally lived them. I am seeing the exact same thing but a couple degrees warmer.

Prior to 2000 NYC's average snowfall was approx. 27.5 inches. Reason I am stating this is to show that it constantly fluctuates and we are in a low snowfall period. Again, 5 above average snowfall winter 1970 to 1999. We are on the same pace 2018 till now. None of what's happening should be a shock.

So far the northern stream clippers have worked out.

Out of left field question - does a radar look exist for the blizzard of March 1993? All I have ever scene were two frames.

This is not a bad look at all for the heart of winter.

Thanks for this. Also Don provided stats on how a positive PNA was likely following a long RNA period. It DOES look as though we are heading into phase six again, almost connecting to the last wave starting period below. If this holds we could see another phase 8. So much for the warm pool keeping us in phases 4/5/6, clippers being extinct, NAO always linking to the SE Ridge, SE ridge being an entity in itself and taking over. I think you even showed the warm pool was shifting slowly east which would be favorable (i.e. the western warm pool being there "the rest of our lives").

0.75 inches fell overnight Easton CT

0.75 inches Easton CT.

GFS looks good for this period too. Yes I know a long range GFS depiction.

That was a great March with back to back events which saved winter here.

Seems the difference between the GEFS dumping the trough out west as opposed to the EPS is the handling of the MJO. While the EPS is essentially in the COD, GEFS is moving to phase 6.

Think the final BDR total has not ben posted yet. That was at 7 am I believe

He's just trying to get a rise out of us.

Thanks Don. Last year and this year so far have reminded me a lot of the 80s growing up. Figures. 2018/2019 through 2023/2024 a good representation of the 90s.

Don posted in the New York forum