EastonSN+
-
Posts
9,108 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by EastonSN+
-
CFS is now picking up on our window.
-
Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat
EastonSN+ replied to George001's topic in New England
I like it. Keep showing snow on Long island as a buffer for CT! -
True you never know, however I have seen this la Nina March snowfall movie play out a few times before. So I have more faith than January or February.
-
The lastest 3.04 scenario on the models was expected given the trough has not lessened in the west as of yet. Our window starts 3.10. CAN we thread the needle before then? Sure, however temps will be an issue and the SER can connect to the NAO causing "cutters" or "runners". That being said, I think we have serious potential starting 3.10.
-
Bump
-
I mean yeah, anytime you have intense NAO flexing at the same time as an extremely intense RNA you are going to have the risk of an intense storm. However I stand by the thoughts r/r/t the fact that if either were a little off, this entire winter has a different feel.
-
Agreed. Also if that second wave was a little weaker in December instead of historically intense, the 3rd wave had a chance to give us a real good event. We were due to strike out in a decent pattern with the way the 2000s have worked in our favor.
-
To summarize, watch the WC trough as it is running the show. It touches BAJA and you connect the SER to the NAO. Until it rises I would be skeptical of a pattern change on the op. model runs.
-
Roll forward trough rises a bit and the SER is muted and does not connect to the NAO and we have big potential. We do not need a POS PNA just a -1sd RNA or higher. To much PNA and we have suppression.
-
Trough touches BAJA, SER connects to NAO and we are warm.
-
Hard to tell at this point. It's at least 10 days.
-
Long range on the ensembles all show a progression to a colder pattern. The PNA does not go positive through the 15 day period. HOWEVER, the RNA does go above -1 SD on the charts (on the ensembles represented as a trough that does not go into the Baja and therefore a SE ridge that is muted into the gulf states). The main difference of the ensemble suites is the GEFS gives us a brief window around the 6th before the 10th while the EPS is rather warm until the 10th Summary - still on track for the 10th +, - a couple days for our window.
-
Very likely could until the RNA rises around the 10th
-
Yeah until the RNA loosens it's grip we will have difficulties. Like Chuck said the 8th to the 19th look a little better. I was saying the 10th to 20th so basically same page. Essentially need the RNA to weaken to -1 SD.
-
Not our storm. Too early in the Blocking development.
-
As Dons stats alluded to it needs to breach a SD of -1. That works fine without needed to go full positive.
-
I guess to wrap up the upcoming period, storms will have a tendency to cut until the RNA stops pumping the SE ridge. Approx timing March 10.
-
Yeah that 3/4 should cut. Still too early. I would not expect anything till around the 10th for the 10 to 15 day window.
-
It's just the beginning of the Blocking period which usually favors the NE given the block is still east based. Our window is after.
-
I mean it snowed in CPK in April 2018, but I agree the window is the 10th through the 20th.
-
Temps are fine at this point and the PNA is still rising. In Mid March a high of 34 at CPK works.
-
This is what I was alluding to earlier. Starts to get real interesting at this point.
-
Yup. However this can still go either way plenty of time.
-
Yup. Still a ways away. N and E is best S and W is worse since the blocking is East. Eastern LI can do well.
-
It will come down to the RNA strength as the AO goes negative. If the models trend stronger with the RNA we warm, the opposite we snow.
