EastonSN+

Another step forward on the GEFS IMO

Happy hour.

Hey Walt! Seems to be two schools of thought. One that thinks will improve towards year end when the block retrogrades. The other that seems to believe this rainy, blocky negative PNA look will persist/keep getting delayed. Me personally, I feel that this does not look anything like 97/98 with a GOA Trough flooding Canada with warmth. I believe we eventually get a couple real good opportunities.

I thought the GEFS was much improved. EPS may be bad with predicting the PAC, but the GEFS is showing improvement day over day.

Ha it's true. On the good side the GEFS has improved.

Would be brutal is we get this rare type of blocking and have mostly rain this winter. 97/98 was that way but the PAC was much worse.

Yeah I kept stating all will be ok, and nobody worry until at least one MET shows concern. Seymour is the first.

I have been saying for days I am not going to worry about the upcoming pattern until at least one met shows concerns

Completely agree. It's funny that we could look back and say "the storm missed my area and I got a measly 22". Although if someone said I could have the same storm and miss now I would sign up in a heartbeat.

Here is SW CT ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... FAIRFIELD 35.0 1000 AM 2/09 PUBLIC STRATFORD 33.0 1030 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MONROE 30.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER BRIDGEPORT 30.0 658 AM 2/09 COOP OBSERVER SHELTON 26.5 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC WESTON 26.5 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER WESTPORT 24.5 645 AM 2/09 PUBLIC GREENWICH 22.5 900 AM 2/09 PUBLIC DARIEN 22.1 500 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NORWALK 22.0 730 AM 2/09 PUBLIC ROXBURY 22.0 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER NEW CANAAN 22.0 600 AM 2/09 CT DOT DANBURY 21.5 1200 PM 2/09 CT DOT STAMFORD 19.0 1100 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NEWTOWN 17.1 1000 AM 2/09 PUBLIC BETHEL 16.0 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER RIDGEFIELD 12.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC

This is consistency I MISSED the mega band and still got 22 in Norwalk CT. Crazy. 835 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... PORT CHESTER 23.3 745 AM 2/09 PUBLIC YONKERS 23.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC ARDSLEY 23.0 740 AM 2/09 PUBLIC SCARSDALE 22.5 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC EASTCHESTER 22.5 700 AM 2/09 BROADCAST MEDIA MAMARONECK 22.0 530 AM 2/09 PUBLIC LARCHMONT 22.0 705 AM 2/09 PUBLIC HARTSDALE 21.5 820 AM 2/09 VILLAGE EMPLOYEE DOBBS FERRY 21.5 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC BRONXVILLE 21.3 630 AM 2/09 PUBLIC HASTINGS-ON-HUDSON 21.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC WHITE PLAINS 21.0 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC RYE 20.0 630 AM 2/09 PUBLIC ARMONK 20.0 816 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MOUNT VERNON 17.2 300 AM 2/09 PUBLIC SOMERS 16.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MOUNT KISCO 14.0 710 AM 2/09 PUBLIC SLEEPY HOLLOW 12.0 1100 AM 2/09 PUBLIC HARRISON 12.0 745 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MILLWOOD 11.6 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC OSSINING 11.5 405 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER

Was amazingly consistent snowfall totals wise. From Norwalk CT to New Rochelle ALL reported 22 inches. Never saw consistency like that before.

I had 22 when I was in Norwalk. Would have been 35 where I am now. One thing about central park in that storm is a portion was rain. How much would have accumulated if it was all snow? I am thinking what NE NJ got about 16 inches.

Is this similar to what happened in 12/13? We had the block in December then the snowstorms of Feb and March that year.

Thanks that's also a good point as to why this "delay" is a good thing. We want this pattern to mature as late as possible.

Yesterday

Love how the GEFS moved towards the EPS w/r/t the pac. Looks really good for even us coasties. On a side note, massive difference DOD on the GEFS MJO chart. More spread and into the COD. Today

Ha last point. As Forky alluded to -PNA can HELP in some cases. As long as it's not moderately (or the monstrosity of last December), we will be fine.

One thing to add, most failures of the past were different. 19/20 the change was never in the ensembles but rather the weeklies. This change is on the ensembles. 01/02 was similar. 12/13 is the best representation of what can go wrong, but we all had snow that month so it was not a complete failure, and half of this forum had above average snowfall for the year thanks to repeat blocking and snowfall in FEB and March. I would sign up for that failure any day.

Iist say I woke up very pleased that the GEFS finally caved to the EPS w/r/t the PAC. Both have the block, so that's of the most confidence. I honestly feel like everything is going a according to how all of them Mets on this board have been saying. Will take a few weeks, all said beyond the 15th. I have seen nothing yet that can ruin the upcoming pattern. Now yes, nothing in life or weather are guaranteed, and there is a SMALL chance that it's a complete failure, but until we see any signs of that (GEFS and EPS Lossing the 6z look), or any MET on this board says we are in trouble, I see no reason to worry unless you were hopeful for the change before the 15th. You are seeing things get pushed back which is common and we see it every year, even when we are in a good pattern the models push back the collapse of said pattern. All is on schedule IMO.

This seems like a perfectly good gambling situation. Ridging vs. Trough Over/under on 20 plus inches before the blocking fades.

Here they go