EastonSN+

100% agree I think the current 5 year stretch is just a repeat of years like 96 through 2000 or 88 through 92. The bonanza we had 2000 through 2018 was more of a repeat of the 60s. Unfortunately, after the 60s we went through a terrible 30 year stretch for snowfall, save 77/78, 94/95, 95/96 and a couple other above average snowfall years. Global warming is real, but global warming does not change a day from 1950 from 32 to 62, that's a pattern driven phenomenon. In summation, we will have more great snowfall seasons, -4SD AOs will produce more snow in future Decembers, clippers will come back at some point etc. However, we may be heading into another tough stretch like 1970 through 2000 (though I hope not).

I mean what's the difference between this winter and 20/21? Why can't a February like 21 happen again? Like 20/21, we had a good December pattern. Only difference is we wasted this one where we scored on one event in 20/21. Isn't this progression more like 20/21 than say 19/20 or last year? NOT saying the progression=forecast as there are meteorological components and no two winters are exactly alike. However, why would someone automatically assume a 19/20 when we JUST had a good pattern in December?

From a phycological perspective, I think that since we had such an epic period from 2000 through 2018 this 5 year period startng with 18/19 has shook us. We are looking for climate reasons for this change, when in actuality 2000 through 2018 was the abnormality, not the current bad stretch. Look at the 70, 80s and 90s, bad stretches and years were the norm. Geez I remember a February in the early 90s we're we wore short sleeves to school on day that hit 70. The 60s were more comparable to this century with snowfall. Yes global temps are rising, but in no way are March clippers, December snow with a -4AO EXTINCT.

Yeah it definitely felt like a ratter. However overall a much better winter than true ratters IMO like 98/98, 01/02, 11/12 and 19/20. If this winter were to come close to shutting us out the rest of the way, 89/90 would be the best match. 01/02 was unique in that we had a precipitation issue. Ratter nonetheless.

Yeah that's March for you, high volatility.

I have to disagree, clippers tend to occur in colder setups. Also, we JUST had snowy Marches and April's in 18 and 19, a blanket statement like that is not correct. Global warming does have an affect, but to say a clippers would be rain now in March is crazy.

Must have been cold if we had clippers, more of a dry northern stream issue. I cannot call that year a ratter. Not like the others.

Yeah it was a March storm that was good. Monthly stats in here. monthlyseasonalsnowfall (2).pdf

You know what, 89/90 had snow in March so even that was not a complete shut out after the December good look. Central Park recorded snow each month that year.

Yeah I'm just a hobbyist, however it's rare to have a complete ratter when you already had one good pattern that same winter (we struck out on a 90 mph fastball down the middle). 89/90 is the only winter I can remember that went from a good pattern to a shut out pattern the rest of the way. 97/98, 01/02, 11/12, 19/20 were all shut out looks from December 1st onwards. Also as a lot have said blocking usually returns when it presents itself in December. Can we end up with an 89/90 repeat? Sure. However it's not the norm. OT. My personal lowest was 3.5 in 97/98 all falling in March. I am stuck at 1.5 so far (CT coast all had at least a half this year), I think eclipsing 3.5 this year is a safe bet.

Lol I have always noticed that. MA and NE thread are mostly looking for positives while this board tends to be negative (speaking about snowfall) Not sure why that's the case Last year, part of the MA (Delmarva area) had a historic snowfall season, maybe that part of the forum is carrying the optimism.

Negative PNA If we have blocking we can snow with an RNA. Without blocking it gets really warm.

Of all the ratters I have experienced, this one has been the most frustrating by far (obviously 3 more months to go). Other than 89/90, I do not remember having this little luck without it being a total no chance look like the others. December had one that was a bit too warm and only half the forum scored. One was too amped, northern stream and nw of us. One was too weak and SE of us. If the 2nd storm was somewhat weaker it could have allowed the 3rd wave to amplify. Sometimes it works out and we hit on all three, sometimes one. I would still take that December look again in a heartbeat.

So LGA is the only NYC airport with accumulating snow of 0.4 Goes with the recent trend of east is best.

Almost feel lucky to be sitting at 1.5 inches on the CT coastal plain.

Your both right. It's rain to snow. IF happens would likely be snow for at least part of the forum.

LGA has 0.4 for snowfall https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202212121321-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX

I hope it's fairly dry during this period.

Was it as good as a setup as we just went through? I kind of remember that season being extremely dry.

I remember all the hype due to the models, but did we ever have a good a setup as we just had?

Yeah this 100% feels different than the ratters of the past. 97/98, 11/12, 19/20 never had a setup like we are in/just had. The aforementioned seasons looked hopeless from minute one. Maybe 01/02 since the models constantly teased us, however again it never had the setup we just had outside of modeling. Half the forum already had a snowfall, one storm was northwest of us, the next one is going to end up Southeast of us and weak. We were stuck in the middle. I posted it before, but if December 2000 did not phase on time, if December 2010 was just a smidge east we would be in the same boat as this year. Shows how luck/timing plays in. We were spoiled for years now where it seemed like every single good setup produced. Could this be 89/90 where we actually WERE in a good pattern that did not produce much then went on to rat? It could just as easily be 12/13 and we had a spectacular finish.

Uh oh https://www.wired.com/story/climate-environment-hurricane/ El Niño Is Coming—and the World Isn’t Prepared

I feel like we were extremely spoiled since 2000, probably the same as the 50s and 60s were for great snowfall. Oh God I hope we are not in the midst of a repeat of 1970 through 1999. Terrible 30 years save 77/78, 93/94 and 95/96.

Perhaps lining up for this period. Maybe the ridge east helps us this time.

Coupled without an RNA?