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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    The main "issue" I see is if the GEFS is more correct than the EPS, the block is a little east and would tend to favor easter half of sub forum, but NOT ONE Met has shown any deviation from the favored progression.
  2. EastonSN+
    Seems fine so far. What's the issue?
  3. EastonSN+
    Yeah ended up being an above average snowfall year IMBY. Good December event too.
  4. EastonSN+
    Exactly.
  5. EastonSN+
    Yup, which is expected given the pattern progression.
  6. EastonSN+
    Think that was an El Nino if not mistaken, and Canada was void of cold air. As long as we do not have the pig in the GOA 1996 will not happen.
  7. EastonSN+
    Great post by ORH wxman wanted to share here. No need for concern IMO.
  8. EastonSN+
    Thanks Don, Speaking of the CFS weeklies only (do not have EURO), loving the fact that the entire run is below average temps, but not arctic (would run risk of suppression IMO). Like you said low skill range for these products - but very promising!
  9. EastonSN+
    Looks like great timing getting back to phases 781 when the block matures.
  10. EastonSN+
    The CFS weeklies show exactly what you were forecasting. Blocking week 2 and then east coast trough weeks 3 through 6.
  11. EastonSN+
    Thanks for this! IMO I believe while a SE can hurt in December and March, it can be a blessing in Jan Feb and blocking periods. I would have loved a bump in Feb 2010. That one hurt. Think Staten Island had 8 while Manhattan had 0.
  12. EastonSN+
    Yeah wonder if it's cyclical. I watched a show which focused on weather patterns in history. Mini ice ages and warm spells. Apparently at one point it was so warm globally that they were growing grapes in England.
  13. EastonSN+
    Now that I trashed the weeklies, CFS weeklies look phenomenal - ha. Of course I do not put much stock in them but weeks 2 through 6 present blocking early and -epo +PNA late.
  14. EastonSN+
    also on the topic of "Delayed and denied", I only remember this happening twice. 01/02 19/20 Both times it was the worthless weeklies week 3 and beyond we were focusing on. In this case both the GEFS and EPS are matching other than a couple of days difference.
  15. EastonSN+
    I wouldn't worry, not one MET has stated that it will keep getting pushed back, and Forky last night stated that it was always EOM and beyond. I have a feeling this will work out like Feb 2021. I may not get over 30 in 3 weeks again, but a similar window with opportunities.
  16. EastonSN+
    The below is best case. MJO getting back to 7,8,1 by the time the block matures last quarter of the month! Hard not to get amped. On a side note, and a question, can a large MJO spike in 6 cause an SSWE? Isnt that what happened in March 2018?
  17. EastonSN+
    Looks like the 2010 block was further west into Canada in that snip - perhaps pushing the SE ridge a bit east in 2010. This might help us avoid suppression in the initial stage.
  18. EastonSN+
    Beautiful
  19. EastonSN+
    It'll be fine in the end like the delays in all prior blocking events. GEFS gets there
  20. EastonSN+
    Yeah GEFS brings the MJO around 5 and 6 while EPS is COD. Maybe the reason.
  21. EastonSN+
    We'll be fine. Maybe it gets delayed a bit, but until I see a Met punt I am all in!!
  22. EastonSN+
    The EPS is amazing.
  23. EastonSN+
    Also as mentioned in the MA forum. EPS has been rock steady while GEFS has been more volatile run to run. Something to keep in mind.
  24. EastonSN+
    GEFS and EPS look great IMO. GEFS a little later but not denied. I feel like this happens in all blocks where we have to wait a bit
  25. EastonSN+
    GEFS eventually looks ok. Takes a bit longer.
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