EastonSN+

What drives me crazy is a lot of Mets predicted a bad year for snowfall due to no blocking and poor Pacific. We had great blocking and it still didn't matter. I can't remember ever having great blocking in a Nina and not getting a decent winter. I have only seen super Nino's with blocking fail like late 90s.

I will never learn. Weeklies and ensembles past day 10 are useless. GEPS now looks terrible at day 15. Not sure what EPS looks like.

Didn't a great philosopher say regression is a b*tch?

CMC shows same thing but a little colder. I agree with the block probably looking at a quicker transfer. Even with the CMC look it's 2 to 3 before changover.

I feel like the winter is failing for the incorrectly predicted reasons. I do not think anyone predicted "too much blocking" as the reason for lack of snow (apologies if anyone actually did). Also, I do not personally believe daily 39 to 45 degree highs are a TORCH. 2011/2012 with daily highs 50 to 65 is a torch IMO. Above average yes torch no. If this year is a torch, would Feb 2018 be an inferno? I know someone is gonna reply with (is +3 not a TORCH!). No imo it's not. Believe me, if we had the right storm track we definitely would not have been shut out for the month. Our main issue is lack of precip/chances. Not saying would have been an epic month, rather anywhere from 1 to 10 inches could have fallen across the region so far. Hell, we had a TRUE torch in FEB 2018 and still managed a snowstorm. Same with Jan 2012. Those torches put is month to shame and it still snowed. We had enough precip chances and good timing. This year it's dry. Now, the weeklies, if to be believed, keeps blocking straight through February. This is believable since the pv is taking another hit and blocking can sustain for up to 5 weeks following. However, this renewed blocking may just keep us cold and dry. I welcome the negative PNA. Positive PNA did nothing for us so let's see if the negative PNA helps.

What I find ironic is the sustained negative NAO is hurting us here. The negative PNA works great if we were to get a storm to eject while the NAO trends positive. It would get warm after the storm but we would get a heavy snow event nonetheless. I guess what would be called a pattern changing storm. I guess this is why our best winter's are when the NAO is volatile rather than sustained.

Usually this would lead to a good time but......

My fault. We stay on the cold side of the boundary straight through February!

Learning. So for the above the jet is keeping the northern and southern stream lows from merging, correct? The Jet is pushing the northern stream faster and from dipping, leaving the southern stream low behind and intimately south of us. I would think this would be a good setup for the south to score more snow.

According to the weeklies we are on the cold side of the boundary through at least mid February thanks to the negative AO and NAO. However if this dry weather continues I would rather lose the block and get the SE Ridge to pop. Warm up. Nothing worse than cold and dry IMO.

Upper 30s every day is not my idea of warmth. I want a SER to get me to 50.

Shaking up the pattern will be welcome. If we lose the NAO then at least it will mild up!

SW CT where I currently reside. Mitigated crappy spring onshore weather. Closer drive to NYC, OCMD and warmer locations to the south. Close to 4 airports. Nice beaches.

Not trying to correlate. Wanted to know. Do u have the answer?

It will be ok. All we need to do is have a pattern change away from this crappy -NAO, -AO, +PNA pattern to a classic la NINA pattern. Patience patterns do change.

I wonder when the last time NYC received 10 inches of snow by end of December and ended up with less than 50% of average snowfall for the year? Thinking 89/90?

At this point I welcome any pattern change. We probably will fair better snowfall wise with the la Nina pattern than this pattern, which produced absolutely nothing.

Correct

EPS improved FWIW

Thanks Don. What I have re-learned this year is the day 10 plus ensembles and of course the weeklies are boarderline useless. They all agreed on a favorable pattern that now either a. Looks to be VERY transient or b. May not occur at all. IMO a terrible performance by LR guidance.

I guess our only hope in that pattern is for the NAO to be negative enough to suppress the SE Ridge.

Unreal. I am still 0.5 inches less snow than last year. Can't believe I can still end up with a worse winter that last year.

Don/Walt/Allsnow/Bluewave Wouldn't the look below be a gradient look with the SE Ridge and Negative NAO? If so, with the cold leaking into the SW US, couldn't that be an VERY snowy and icy look for us? I know 2014 is an analog year which we were in the colder side of the gradient. I feel that the look below is far better than what we have now. Please correct me if I am wrong I do not want to mislead the board and give false optimism. Thanks

The 17 18 winter was an all time favorite for me. Record snows in March. Cold and snowy Dec and Jan. Nice and warm Feb for a break.

EPS 240 (do not have past 240 so not sure where it goes from here). Negative NAO still strong. Pac looks better but not as good as it looked yesterday. Hadley Cell to occur following frames?