EastonSN+

One thing I have noticed on the models, where coastals eventually turn into cutters, is that the northern stream energy this year seems to always take over/become stronger. For instance, overnight runs look more cutterish not due to the storm suddenly becoming a cutter, but rather the northern low strengthens, dominates the southern low and therefore we end up on the warm sector as opposed to when the southern low strengthens, moves to our east and brings in cooler air. I believe in Nina's the northern stream tends to dominate, which has been what we have been seeing all winter. Now that we are looking at a Nino type flow, perhaps we can get the southern stream low to dominate. An extreme example of a southern low dominating would be Nemo in Feb 2013. Northern low cuts into Canada but the southern stream low strengthens and takes over. GFS. Northern stream now prominent with little surface reflection of the southern stream low.

Up to 63!

Yup I am at 61.

BDR Jan highs. Can they reach 70 for the first time? OT but wonder if the two day stretch of 60 plus in 1916 will ever be broken. Rank Temperature Date 1 69 °F January 12, 2020 2 68 °F January 6, 2007 2 68 °F January 29, 2002 2 68 °F January 14, 1932 5 65 °F January 9, 2008 5 65 °F January 27, 1974 5 65 °F January 28, 1916 5 65 °F January 27, 1916 5 65 °F January 7, 1907

Absolutely beautiful outside today!

For snow lovers two reasons to hold out some hope 1.) Duration=volatility. 2 plus months to go, therefore hard to rule out flukes like February 2018. 2.) Return of the block. As Don, Bluewave pointed out blocking tends to return when it presents itself in December. Therefore there is a chance it could happen February or March and provide some benefit

I think the forum is so spread out it's hard to gauge who has been successful late season. Speaking for coastal SW CT, March has delivered more often than not. For instance, March 2019 (the forgotten March due to 2018) received 2 snowstorms totalling 11.5 below. Snowiest month of the year of course. How much did your back yard get?

Late February and March have shorter wavelengths and volatility, so that would be a target.

Yeah I exaggerated a bit, and 00/01 was well above average for snowfall (similar to how 20/21 was above average snowfall). 99/2000 mirrored last year w/r/t snowfall totals. Both 5 year stretches with a couple ratters and 1 good winter each. Personally, 97/98 was my all time low of 3.5 and first snowfall of March. I am at 1.5 so still in the game for an all time low snowfall season. Difference being this year we wasted a golden opportunity while 97/98 was a furnace from day 1.

My local news stated that we may break high temp record set in 1998. Fits the bill as that was another 5 year snowless stretch of winters.

Snow map so I know but just for fun, imagine if parts of North Carolina and DC area pull ahead of us in snowfall......

70s 80s and 90s were in large part trash for snowfall.

Imagine if we waste a strong Neg AO AND a January MJO phase 8/1 in the same season?

This monster. If it missed would have been our only completely perfect game. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1995/04-Feb-95.html

How much did you get in the November storm?

94/95. One massive snowstorm in early February. Complete shut out otherwise.

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2012/21-Jan-12.html Lol Eastern LI again.

IMO if this pattern persists it will be far more disappointing than 11/12. We did not strike out in a good pattern like this past December, and we had a 4 to 8 inch snowstorm January 12.

SN+ is heavy snow. SN- is light snow.

Time will tell I guess. What was the previous record for warm winters? Thinking it had to be 96/97 through 1999/2000.

If we want to be snowfall optimistic, just think that if December 2020 failed like this last December, then we would be in the exact same boat statistically (i.e Decembers with no accumulating snow) and that historic February would have still occurred. That's why while helpful, statistics do not always tell the full story. Same could be said about the December 2000 storm to a certain extent. Sure we may get shut out the rest of the way, but I doubt it.

Looks like the opposite of December on the west coast where the trough was in the SW and a ridge just off the coast. Also, the WAR retrograded west and is a SER (and a trough off the coast a bit out).

100% agree I think the current 5 year stretch is just a repeat of years like 96 through 2000 or 88 through 92. The bonanza we had 2000 through 2018 was more of a repeat of the 60s. Unfortunately, after the 60s we went through a terrible 30 year stretch for snowfall, save 77/78, 94/95, 95/96 and a couple other above average snowfall years. Global warming is real, but global warming does not change a day from 1950 from 32 to 62, that's a pattern driven phenomenon. In summation, we will have more great snowfall seasons, -4SD AOs will produce more snow in future Decembers, clippers will come back at some point etc. However, we may be heading into another tough stretch like 1970 through 2000 (though I hope not).

I mean what's the difference between this winter and 20/21? Why can't a February like 21 happen again? Like 20/21, we had a good December pattern. Only difference is we wasted this one where we scored on one event in 20/21. Isn't this progression more like 20/21 than say 19/20 or last year? NOT saying the progression=forecast as there are meteorological components and no two winters are exactly alike. However, why would someone automatically assume a 19/20 when we JUST had a good pattern in December?

From a phycological perspective, I think that since we had such an epic period from 2000 through 2018 this 5 year period startng with 18/19 has shook us. We are looking for climate reasons for this change, when in actuality 2000 through 2018 was the abnormality, not the current bad stretch. Look at the 70, 80s and 90s, bad stretches and years were the norm. Geez I remember a February in the early 90s we're we wore short sleeves to school on day that hit 70. The 60s were more comparable to this century with snowfall. Yes global temps are rising, but in no way are March clippers, December snow with a -4AO EXTINCT.