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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    Good to see the CMC. That being said CMC did move north. We need to stop the models suite from moving north every series. Still a lot of time. I still contend we have the most potential starting March 10.
  2. EastonSN+
    That's before we go cold around the 10th.
  3. EastonSN+
    THANKS!! Bridgeport is pathetic.
  4. EastonSN+
    Yeah definitely. The good news is this time it has not been delayed to date. GEFS was always a couple days later than the EPS. Likely resulting from the difference in timing of the MJO. I am 90% certain of a favorable window at this time. My question is the duration. 7 days. 10. Up in the air. Of course a favorable window does not guarantee that success olis realized.
  5. EastonSN+
    Still on track for approx the 10th. GEFS and GEPS are on board. GEFS is later and GEPS is sooner. Will post the EPS and it's in the middle timing wise.
  6. EastonSN+
    I would be happy with a good thump even if it transitions to rain.
  7. EastonSN+
    Lol I think this is the first storm in my life I am paying more attention to CPK snowfall than my own backyard.
  8. EastonSN+
    Yeah, snow goose or one of the METS may be able to opine on lift/intensity and banding.
  9. EastonSN+
    Yeah. Other than temps it matters where the precip comes in from. Some of the models are further south with the initial heavier precip which is important.
  10. EastonSN+
    Yeah CPK and LI will need higher rates to compensate for temps. Westchester and Fairfield counties can get away with weaker sauce.
  11. EastonSN+
    I do see your point. I think the only way to manage such a large area like NYC is to have an official measurement in all Burroughs and average in addition to each airports individual records. Bronx has a large portion of NYCs population and it's never truly represented in the city's measurement.
  12. EastonSN+
    We NEED a slight RNA and SER to avoid suppression. This looks pretty good for snow.
  13. EastonSN+
    Yeah definitely colder on the GFS
  14. EastonSN+
    The NAM shows how the higher intensities lead to snow over lighter precip and drizzle.
  15. EastonSN+
    The ensembles connect the SER to the NAO approximately the same time as the system is expected to occur. Wouldn't this lead to more of a GFS outcome? I don't want a rain event however trying to learn.
  16. EastonSN+
  17. EastonSN+
    What are your thoughts on this one? What worries me is this is the timeframe that the ensembles link the SER to the NAO. Given that I would think that the GFS is more right UNLESS the ensembles are in incorrect. I hope the EURO is right.
  18. EastonSN+
    Does anyone have the EURO Kutchera?
  19. EastonSN+
    With the way mid March looks, I think the chance of breaking the record is low.
  20. EastonSN+
  21. EastonSN+
  22. EastonSN+
    Yeah down to a half inch for CPK. So far GFS and GEM went a bit colder while the UKMET went warmer. I think the NWS is on target with their snowfall map.
  23. EastonSN+
    Massive difference between the GFS and GEM. GEM is a snow event for Virginia and NC.
  24. EastonSN+
    So although the GEM went a bit colder, like the GFS it also slightly cut the snow totals due to less intensity.
  25. EastonSN+
    It's crazy how different the GFS and GEM are for the 3/4 event. GFS goes right over us with rain while the GEM gives Virginia and NC snow. If I had to bet I would say the GFS is correct as this is the time the SER connects with the NAO. We shall see.
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