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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    Thank you!!
  2. EastonSN+
    GEFS never moved from the 10th. EPS and GEPS still the 8th. We may get several small storms, couple moderate or one Large, the op runs are more entertaining at this point. Yes, we can strike out again like December too snow is never a guarantee, however this looks like the best window all season. We shall see how it shakes out. IMO it comes down to the RNA. Too strong and the look fades.
  3. EastonSN+
    GFS GEFS is later with the good period compared to GEPS and EPS. Let's hope........
  4. EastonSN+
    Had to borrow from the MA forum. What a crazy year!
  5. EastonSN+
    What's wrong with the GFS? The GEFS was always a couple days behind and while not showing the same KU potential, still shows a couple snow events (op) as well as a good pattern (GEFS). So having the GFS/GEFS as a floor is great IMO.
  6. EastonSN+
    I find it fascinating to see the difference between Long Island and coastal CT on a lot of those.
  7. EastonSN+
    This is a good site for both operational and ensemble model runs. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn
  8. EastonSN+
    You are on the exact same page as I am. Favorable patterns do not guarantee snow. Would role the dice on the December look again.
  9. EastonSN+
    Two distinct threats on the GFS. The GEFS has generally been later than EPS and GEPS in timing - think it's showing up here.
  10. EastonSN+
    Exactly!
  11. EastonSN+
    GFS close too.
  12. EastonSN+
    I had 5.1. NYC only needs 0.7 to avoid futility
  13. EastonSN+
    We just had a snow storm. So maybe our luck has changed
  14. EastonSN+
  15. EastonSN+
  16. EastonSN+
    So close on the CMC.
  17. EastonSN+
    19/20 is a good example of how a colder air mass in place is so important. Arctic air mass in place and similar track. Low to buffalo and CPK still received 4.5 inches with the same track.
  18. EastonSN+
    Not bad at all. Hopefully ticks south a bit further.
  19. EastonSN+
    Yup. Biggest concern as you pointed out is suppression.
  20. EastonSN+
    Also to keep the KU thoughts in perspective as well, we only had 5 in 30 years from 1970 through 1999.
  21. EastonSN+
    KU ingredients: MJO in high amplitude phase 8. Check Blocking in place and decaying. Check Rising PNA. Check Dropping EPO. Check Biggest question mark. PNA. We want it to rise at a quicker pace for a KU. Being in Negative first is great. The rise has to be quick enough. As it has been said, only 1 out of every 10 systems with the earmarks of a KU actually occured. So 10% chance here to keep everything in perspective.
  22. EastonSN+
    Thanks for this. Still do not know if 1 is good or not in March lol. However WOW in 8!
  23. EastonSN+
    Yeah I mean 0.7 inches is very doable in CPK. Would not take much at all to accomplish. However WOW on the pattern coming up. Now we have to be cautious as we know a good pattern does not guarantee that success is realized, however we can't strike out twice in one season can we?
  24. EastonSN+
    The ensembles show two distinct snowfall patterns coming up. Approx the 7th we have the NAO keeping heights lowered in our area with a ridge JUST to our west. Think their past storm (mixing in buffalo snow in CPK). Then just 3 to 4 days later we get a spike in PNA resulting in an east coast trough. How long this lasts I do not know but this timeframe has MAJOR potential. Our risk will be suppression.
  25. EastonSN+
    IF the GFS has the correct idea on the next storm, CPK rises out of futility. 0.7 for CPK. Obviously we need another small tick SW to create a buffer.
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