EastonSN+

No I think there is still a possibility. Positives are retracting jet and southern stream influence.

I know it was discussed that the MJO is not having much of an influence, and these charts are noisy and not too accurate, but they are heading into colder phases.

2013. This winter being la Nina, the northern low would dominant and we are warm-sectored. Obviously we know in 2013 the southern low took over and history is made.

Do you have 1916? Curious as BDR had back to back days of 65.

One thing I have noticed on the models, where coastals eventually turn into cutters, is that the northern stream energy this year seems to always take over/become stronger. For instance, overnight runs look more cutterish not due to the storm suddenly becoming a cutter, but rather the northern low strengthens, dominates the southern low and therefore we end up on the warm sector as opposed to when the southern low strengthens, moves to our east and brings in cooler air. I believe in Nina's the northern stream tends to dominate, which has been what we have been seeing all winter. Now that we are looking at a Nino type flow, perhaps we can get the southern stream low to dominate. An extreme example of a southern low dominating would be Nemo in Feb 2013. Northern low cuts into Canada but the southern stream low strengthens and takes over. GFS. Northern stream now prominent with little surface reflection of the southern stream low.

Up to 63!

Yup I am at 61.

BDR Jan highs. Can they reach 70 for the first time? OT but wonder if the two day stretch of 60 plus in 1916 will ever be broken. Rank Temperature Date 1 69 °F January 12, 2020 2 68 °F January 6, 2007 2 68 °F January 29, 2002 2 68 °F January 14, 1932 5 65 °F January 9, 2008 5 65 °F January 27, 1974 5 65 °F January 28, 1916 5 65 °F January 27, 1916 5 65 °F January 7, 1907

Absolutely beautiful outside today!

For snow lovers two reasons to hold out some hope 1.) Duration=volatility. 2 plus months to go, therefore hard to rule out flukes like February 2018. 2.) Return of the block. As Don, Bluewave pointed out blocking tends to return when it presents itself in December. Therefore there is a chance it could happen February or March and provide some benefit

I think the forum is so spread out it's hard to gauge who has been successful late season. Speaking for coastal SW CT, March has delivered more often than not. For instance, March 2019 (the forgotten March due to 2018) received 2 snowstorms totalling 11.5 below. Snowiest month of the year of course. How much did your back yard get?

Late February and March have shorter wavelengths and volatility, so that would be a target.

Yeah I exaggerated a bit, and 00/01 was well above average for snowfall (similar to how 20/21 was above average snowfall). 99/2000 mirrored last year w/r/t snowfall totals. Both 5 year stretches with a couple ratters and 1 good winter each. Personally, 97/98 was my all time low of 3.5 and first snowfall of March. I am at 1.5 so still in the game for an all time low snowfall season. Difference being this year we wasted a golden opportunity while 97/98 was a furnace from day 1.

My local news stated that we may break high temp record set in 1998. Fits the bill as that was another 5 year snowless stretch of winters.

Snow map so I know but just for fun, imagine if parts of North Carolina and DC area pull ahead of us in snowfall......

70s 80s and 90s were in large part trash for snowfall.

Imagine if we waste a strong Neg AO AND a January MJO phase 8/1 in the same season?

This monster. If it missed would have been our only completely perfect game. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1995/04-Feb-95.html

How much did you get in the November storm?

94/95. One massive snowstorm in early February. Complete shut out otherwise.

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2012/21-Jan-12.html Lol Eastern LI again.

IMO if this pattern persists it will be far more disappointing than 11/12. We did not strike out in a good pattern like this past December, and we had a 4 to 8 inch snowstorm January 12.

SN+ is heavy snow. SN- is light snow.

Time will tell I guess. What was the previous record for warm winters? Thinking it had to be 96/97 through 1999/2000.