EastonSN+

I wonder how many times the AO was -4 or lower in December that it DID NOT return later that Winter?

Lol was just thinking, this December was a typical 80s style fail and this January is a typical 90s style fail.

Agree. Also WRT your AGW comment, I feel like if I do not acknowledge AGW in a post about the past I ruffle feathers for some reason. That should never be the case though. I too believe that we are warming for a couple of reasons, but I disagree with some who believe we are in a new era and we are the next Miami (I hope someone does not feel the need to reply and argue my opinion). We will have another great period again in the future just hope we do not wait 30 years again

I think the 90s are a better comparison cold wise.

EXACTLY I lived through the 80s and 90s and the past 5 years (this included) reminds me 100% of those. I feel like 2000 through 2018 has warped the view of a lot of trackers who started this century. 90s had only 2 above average snowfall winters and a LOT of absolute torches. 80s had one winter, believe 87, where everything was south of us and we were cold, however I distinctly remember extremely warm months and almost never getting a snow day and complaining to my parents. In my mind, we are reverting back to the 30 year 70s 80s and 90s and it's a shock to the system. Probably how trackers felt after the snow blitz of the 1960s. So in my mind, expecting 2 to 3 above average snowfall seasons over next ten years. WE WILL have another great period like this century and the 60s, just hope we do not have to wait as long!

Go figure, the Atlantic is on fire yet the southern coast (last year Delmarva) or the cape/Eastern LI (continuously for years) benefit from it. We need an El Nino bad.

The WAR failed us on the third storm in December, watch it fail us now too. It either secures a rainy scenario or allows for an offshore track. This is just one of those winters.

Seems to be unbreakable this year for the most part. Just one of those years I guess.

I was just using that image as an example not specifying a particular storm. Coastal plain does get accums on the front end of these on occasion. Interior does better but I live in the coastal plain in CT and have received a coating to as much as 8 in similar setups. I believe our November 2019 storm was this type as well.

Yeah I kind of want to get the Central Park record out of the way. Finish what 97/98 couldn't. The only think I don't want is the overreacting that may come with it (i.e. this is the new norm, we should get used to it, winters like 14/15 are extinct, NY is the new Atlanta, etc etc).

Man, your area has been the luckiest over the past 10 years! Hope it happens.

IMO the most likely way for Central Park to score a half inch or more in a la Nina setup is something similar to the below. Not saying this one, however an overrunning event. Usually occurs with an RNA and some semblance of blocking (50/50 low for instance). A typical la Nina pattern in February WITH BLOCKING has historically produced snowfall in this way.

That looks like a January 1993 map.

Are you looking for a true City or suburb? Ridgefield is just south of Danbury and is real nice with good schools.

On the bright side, after years of drought and lack of snow PAC the west is having a banner snow year! They were way overdue.

Compared to 2001.

Courtesy and thanks to Benchmark.

Right, but we're all the other factors the same as well? i.e. PNA level, EPO level, MJO, et all? I feel that small factors/differences can make a massive difference in results. 2000 was one storm at the end of the month, if it was slightly west the amount would have been greatly reduced (obviously same with just east). The good news? We will find out over the coming years

I believe it did, however was using the potential that warmer Atlantic waters could have allowed for less suppression.

We shall see in the coming years if this rains true. If it is, winter as we used to know it is over. Isn't the Northern stream dominate in La Ninas?

Yeah I can see some rooting for it. Like rooting for the undefeated football season to occur again. It's going to happen again at some point. 97/98 made it to mid March! Maybe this time the fluke is avoided? I still think odds of a complete shut out is low due to duration and late season volatility. We have seen a lot of snowfall flukes over the years.

If I were a betting man, I would bet that we will have blocking that does not link with the SE ridge in December in the future, the warm Atlantic cycle has not made that impossible. Also, the warm cycle can help us as well, if the Atlantic was this warm in December 89 we would have been buried. You and I are the lucky ones on this forum, all of Connecticut has avoided a shut out. Stamford had 0.5 and BDR 0.8. Only LGA in NYC has avoided the shut out with 0.4.

I have to respectfully disagree. Yes the Atlantic is in a warm cycle, and may have affected one of the storms, however there was bad luck. For instance if the big storm was a little weaker, it would have allowed the follow up wave to strengthen more and potentially give us snow. If the northern stream wasn't so dominant (typical la Nina), the larger storm could have transferred to the coastal low and although hugging the coast and changing to rain, could have dropped a couple inches. I do agree that the pattern was not epic, where people were comparing to 2010 due to the fact that, per the New England forum, the PAC was not as favorable as 2010 AND not to mention the negative NAO was not as strong as 2010. However, it was a Decent setup that I would take chances with again any December. Last point, a warm Atlantic is not going to cause a storm to move from off the Delmarva to Canada. From off the coast to a coastal hugger or even an inland runner sure, but not a coastal to Canada.

That ECMWF run would be hilarious it it was true, DC, Philly and parts of the Delmarva getting accums before central park.

More likely, blocking returns as it statistically does following a neg. AO in December and we are rainy and chilly with temps 45 to 50. We are not lucky enough to get 60 and sunny consistently.