EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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This is not the only year this has happened. Yes it is warmer. It's a bad year and we will have great winters again. CC did not just start with 2018.
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Eh, we will have standard north based Greenland blocking again. It's not extinct. Just a bad year.
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I wish it didn't only work when we don't want it to. Whenever a storm is off the coast it does nothing to get it to us like the last storm.
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Yup, almost like not having a single thunderstorm all summer.
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If you were not alive in the 80s, the 12z models so far are a good example of a winter pattern. Warm and wet cold and dry.
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All in all, IF that northern stream low didn't dominante and become historically strong, that follow up wave could have easily hit us and instead of looking at History for CPK it would be a run of the mill ratter. Shows how little nuances can cause such drastic changes
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Yeah, I think 97/98 January matches this December with the chances.
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Really? I mean we have had some absolute furnaces the past 50 years.
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Yeah all we had was the early December storm which was 0.5 to 3 depending on location.
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I held off on it. My dad who's going on 82 experienced many of these duds in the past refused to get his snow thrower ready back in November cause he had a feeling. Amazing.
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At least 2011 already had the Halloween snowstorm.
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Sitting at 1.5 here. Record low for snowfall was 3.5 in 97/98.
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We do have a window to score something at the end of the month. Can't express how much this winter feels like 97/98 did (if that late March fluke did not happen CPK would have already experienced a shut out).
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Yup. It's a shock to the system for people who were not around for periods like this from 1970 through 1999. Regression to the mean is painful!
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To be fair, December WAS a good pattern (la Ninas are typically front loaded). The first storm did give snow to half the forum The second storm was wayyyy too intense and squashed our true potential which was the 3rd storm. From 2000 through 2018 all the luck was on our side, we were just due to strike out on a fastball down the middle.
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This may be a shot from the ECMWF. Maybe our friend SE ridge can flex and give us a light event?
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Yeah BUT la Ninas do typically do that. One thing I am keeping my eye on is this MJO wave. High amplitude phases 2 and 3 in a la Nina below.
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I know it's a long range clown map, however would be fitting for a la Nina (cutter/SE slider)
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We can score with that look. Cutters are a risk but not a shut out look.
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Right, however why can't we get a weak follow up wave to provide some snow? In December the bomb was so intense the follow up wave had no chance and was squashed. If this cutter is weaker than we can score a follow up light to moderate event. Of course this is looking down the road without players on the field, however I do not think it's a shut out look.
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All winter, as is typical in a la Nina, the northern stream low has taken over and has been dominant which is what really hurt December. Just using as an example see below, IF IF we can somehow get the southern low to dominate if just once....if the pattern is not broken in the below image the low over Michigan will strengthen. I HOPE this changes.
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I am on the SW coast and just want to avoid my lowest snowfall total of 3.5 in 97/98. At 1.5 now so a tall task in this winter.
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The last part of winter will likely come down to whether or not blocking returns given the strong blocking in December. Still nothing on the horizon.
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You have been spot on all winter, but hope you are wrong.
