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EastonSN+

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  1. EastonSN+
    Dude my bad Feb. 19/20 1934
  2. EastonSN+
    I think we have to look to the past as well and see the results of those warm periods. Mentioned before that during the mideval warm period it was so warm they were growing grapes in England and crops flourished. We are still emerging from the little ice age, so Carbon Dioxide is working with natural warming to accelerate. We should reach the aforementioned period quicker than normal.
  3. EastonSN+
    Wasn't February 2021 a standard block (not south) or are you only alluding to December.
  4. EastonSN+
    Thanks, I also noticed that this looks like the first time the PAC was Aleutian Ridge/RNA. As you alluded too likely caused by the IO warm pool correct?
  5. EastonSN+
    I love that pic, shows the wave action across the globe.
  6. EastonSN+
    This is amazing to look at.
  7. EastonSN+
    Thanks Don for tracking this! I have enjoyed reading it all season. See, this is how I view Global Warming. We will likely end up warmer than 01/02 by up to 1 degree. That right there is the effect of GW. We have to use a similar background state to compare temps. I use 97/98 all the time for snowfall comparison, however it's a bad temp comparison since that background state was actually the opposite of 01/02 and this year. Still, would be nice to get ONE snow event.
  8. EastonSN+
    CAPE had a great post showing how the Aleutian Ridge has been static all season, creating the static RNA and SE ridge. Has to be La Nina driven.
  9. EastonSN+
    I know it's the CFS however look at that Aleutian ridge! Go through each week and that Ridge is completely static. No way we can get a favorable pattern with that. Aleutian ridge goes up, PNA goes down, SE ridge goes up like waves in a pool. This static Aleutian ridge HAS to be la Nina driven.
  10. EastonSN+
    Great post by CAPE. So, it seems the catalyst for the SE ridge/RNA is really the Aleutian ridge, not the Atlantic (Aleutian ridge rises creating the RNA and therefore the SE ridge). Now my question is, is the Aleutian ridge due to the La Nina (cold anomaly south of the ridge)? If so, this explains the persistence of the SE ridge and amazing wester have of USA winter. Have THAT powerful of an RNA would also explain the NAO/SE ridge linkage. I tend to believe the above since we are downstream of the PAC, and as we all know the PAC drives the bus. If the RNA was a little weaker, the results would likely be better for March. Strong La Ninas are terrible (except I do enjoy the warmth).
  11. EastonSN+
    FWIW, the MJO on both the ECMWF and GEFS now loop 7 and 8. Not sure what, if any effects will be realized. This year the RNA was just too powerful and persistent, so not sure how that changes other than shortening wavelengths. 97/98 with it's hail Mary late March fluke is the only thing standing in the way of the record. I think if you play out 97/98 10 times, 8 times the March event does not happen and CPK stays at 0.5. History repeating itself.
  12. EastonSN+
    I would say not in our lifetimes if ever. Very unique track and progression. Storms like 1888, 1899, 1948, 1978 and 2010 have only occurred once. I would have added 2013, however 1922 had a very similar setup and track (both had a storm NW merge with a strengthening offshore low, even the snowfall distro was close just a bit displaced south from 2013).
  13. EastonSN+
    I am talking about the screen snip he provided, not what may or may not change that look. In that look, the east based NAO keeps the 50/50 long enough to start as snow. Whether or not something moves or changes on the next run is not what I am referring to.
  14. EastonSN+
    The east based NAO would keep in the 50/50 long enough for the overrunning to occur in that screen snip. East Based NAO = overrunning West based NAO = coastal/all snow
  15. EastonSN+
    If the depiction occured as shown, the 50/50 would allow for an overrunning event to occur. A west based NAO would allow for a coastal.
  16. EastonSN+
    Agreed, I think we will be waiting a few years before our next 13/14, 02/03, 95/96 etc
  17. EastonSN+
    00/01 feels like 20/21 in that both were above average snowfall in a sea of bad years.
  18. EastonSN+
    16 IMBY for PD2 11.5 for 2016
  19. EastonSN+
    Mine was 1996 27 inches 2013 22 inches 2006 20.5 2011 18
  20. EastonSN+
    The record will all come down to the last few days of the month. If the cold push is a couple days earlier we lose the record. If it's a couple days later we get it. It all comes down to timing.
  21. EastonSN+
    I think your further north. I believe we are reverting back to the pre 2000 pattern setup, which was more west coast trough east coast ridging. Now, that can work quite favorably for your area as you can get more coastal huggers, boundary setups. Coastal areas will be the opposite with more rain.
  22. EastonSN+
    Yeah the further SE the better last year. I was over 8 inches below normal up here.
  23. EastonSN+
    Also, this is why 2019 to now has not shaken me. I lived through so many 5 plus year snowless periods that 2000 through 2018 is an outlier to me while the past 5 years, 2 ratters, 2 below average and one above average snowfall winter feels normal to me.
  24. EastonSN+
    Don't sleep on 2000/2001, solidly above average snowfall year with a December blizzard.
  25. EastonSN+
    Yeah I grew up in the 80s and 90s and it was horrific.
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