EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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Hopefully next year the opposite happens and we get that trough on the east coast and we get the winter the west had.
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If the snow event on the EURO and GFS come to fruition, and March does indeed end up being well above average temps, this year will be as close to a copy of 01/02 as you can get. Kind of amazing really.
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In the end, the RNA was/is too strong and pumps the ridge too far north. What could have been if the RNA was weaker
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Thanks Don. I like to take all 4 months of the winter for month over month we may have two extremely warm setups which lead to a high anomaly (in this case and extreme El Nino effect followed by the la Nina affect). I feel that it could have easily been flipped where December had the El Nino background and January could have had the December setup, thereby removing the back to back month record. Taking the winter as a whole, we remove the back to back potential (or at least mitigate). Not arguing at all, just my thought process.
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I am not sure, however the correlation is amazing. Same thing occured last year. The RNA and the NAO flexes at the same time. Why are they so perfectly lined up? I am just asking the board to see if there is a reason for 2 years they align in intensification.
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I mean the dips and peaks are almost perfectly aligned.
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Take a look here. Look at the RNA and NAO flex. Timing is aligned.
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Yup. I do not understand it however the NAOs we have been seeing have been somewhat useless. They called it bootleg as it was not a true NAO but rather a heat flex effect from a flexing RNA. Would explain the recent SE Ridge linkages with the NAOs, more of a RIDGE than blocking.
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Looking at the LR GEFS, once again, the -NAO flexes at the exact same time as the RNA. There were discussions last year when the same thing happened where the NAO was considered "bootleg" and more a RESULT of the RNA rather than a coincidence. So for the third time in 2 years the RNA and NAO are going to flex at the exact same time. I wonder how often we have a strong RNA that a negative NAO suddenly appears. If it were a legit NAO, why can't we get an AO flex at the same time. Has to be a connection.
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First appearance since pre December 15th. Typical La Nina
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Once again like all season the northern stream Low dominates, brings in mid level warmth. Will only work if the air mass in place is cold/dense enough to start as snow.
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Thanks, may not have been a factor but the AO region looked better in 2010 as well.
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Also in my response to Forky meant December 25-27 1947.
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Dude my bad Feb. 19/20 1934
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I think we have to look to the past as well and see the results of those warm periods. Mentioned before that during the mideval warm period it was so warm they were growing grapes in England and crops flourished. We are still emerging from the little ice age, so Carbon Dioxide is working with natural warming to accelerate. We should reach the aforementioned period quicker than normal.
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Wasn't February 2021 a standard block (not south) or are you only alluding to December.
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Thanks, I also noticed that this looks like the first time the PAC was Aleutian Ridge/RNA. As you alluded too likely caused by the IO warm pool correct?
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I love that pic, shows the wave action across the globe.
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This is amazing to look at.
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Thanks Don for tracking this! I have enjoyed reading it all season. See, this is how I view Global Warming. We will likely end up warmer than 01/02 by up to 1 degree. That right there is the effect of GW. We have to use a similar background state to compare temps. I use 97/98 all the time for snowfall comparison, however it's a bad temp comparison since that background state was actually the opposite of 01/02 and this year. Still, would be nice to get ONE snow event.
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CAPE had a great post showing how the Aleutian Ridge has been static all season, creating the static RNA and SE ridge. Has to be La Nina driven.
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I know it's the CFS however look at that Aleutian ridge! Go through each week and that Ridge is completely static. No way we can get a favorable pattern with that. Aleutian ridge goes up, PNA goes down, SE ridge goes up like waves in a pool. This static Aleutian ridge HAS to be la Nina driven.
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Great post by CAPE. So, it seems the catalyst for the SE ridge/RNA is really the Aleutian ridge, not the Atlantic (Aleutian ridge rises creating the RNA and therefore the SE ridge). Now my question is, is the Aleutian ridge due to the La Nina (cold anomaly south of the ridge)? If so, this explains the persistence of the SE ridge and amazing wester have of USA winter. Have THAT powerful of an RNA would also explain the NAO/SE ridge linkage. I tend to believe the above since we are downstream of the PAC, and as we all know the PAC drives the bus. If the RNA was a little weaker, the results would likely be better for March. Strong La Ninas are terrible (except I do enjoy the warmth).
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FWIW, the MJO on both the ECMWF and GEFS now loop 7 and 8. Not sure what, if any effects will be realized. This year the RNA was just too powerful and persistent, so not sure how that changes other than shortening wavelengths. 97/98 with it's hail Mary late March fluke is the only thing standing in the way of the record. I think if you play out 97/98 10 times, 8 times the March event does not happen and CPK stays at 0.5. History repeating itself.
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I would say not in our lifetimes if ever. Very unique track and progression. Storms like 1888, 1899, 1948, 1978 and 2010 have only occurred once. I would have added 2013, however 1922 had a very similar setup and track (both had a storm NW merge with a strengthening offshore low, even the snowfall distro was close just a bit displaced south from 2013).
