EastonSN+

Would like to see the MA get hammered even if we flip from snow to rain. I think the 70s and 80s had a lot of these (stemwinders). I think the last one was January 2000? Becoming extinct like the clipper. I know I know 10 to 1 240 hour snow maps but using for illustration.

After Christmas was the forecast, that storm is before (Although this one has a higher likelihood of starting as some snow). Steps.

This is what all the models are showing now so technically not a cutter.

Exactly, like Forky said after Christmas the whole time, anyone should have known that the earlier good looks were just the models rushing things like they always do. Just like 2010 and 2018 where it took a month.

Is it an actual cutter if the primary never goes over us and redevelops south of us then moves just underneath us?

Yup, until an actual red tagger (this is literally their career) states concern I would not.

Haha no. Not one ted tagger has stated any concerns in the New England or this forum.

Which is what Forky forecasted the whole time, after Christmas is when all the fun starts. Models just rushing everything like they always do. Just because models rushed the look does not mean it's not going to happen.

Thanks. Also blocking is not disappearing from what I see, it's just not as intense.

What's funny is December and March CARRIED 2017/2018. We did get the big storm early Jan and that whacky 4.5 inches that February between 70 degree days. Great winter.

Where I am December is like March, either great or a shut out.

No signs? Other than all ensemble guidance showing it and red taggers like Forky and Brooklynwx99 saying it will happen?

Has yes, would have avoided the panic in 2010 and 2018 as well! I just had 1.5 inches of snow and even the coast had an inch, already better than some good blocking periods this early.

Red taggers out there - will the good period not arrive? Percentage chance of not arriving?

Yeah but Bluewave is not saying it WON'T happen, hes just showing what has been happening. 2010, 2018 all had to wait an entire month with Rainers. I mean Forky literally stated after Christmas this whole time.

I remember the SSWE happened early Feb 2018 and it took a month for the payoff.

This happens every single blocking event. Everyone panics cause the models rush the good look. 2010 we had a massive cutter that brought down the Minnesota dome 2 weeks into the blocking patter and as Bluewave alluded to it took the entire month for the blocking to migrate west and clean up the PAC. Not saying this is 2010 and Forky said "Since" 2010 not including 2010. Question - has ANY red tagger stated concern that the pattern won't happen? I will definitely show concern if any red tagger stated that the good look may never happen or only last a couple days.

That's raises a good question, what was the best blocking period since 2010? For me thinking 1.) March April 2018 2.) February 2021 3.) February March 2013 4.) January 2016

This looks pretty darn good to me. Slight neg. NAO. Positive PNA. We don't want blocking to be that strong or yes will be cold and dry.

Remember just like models always rush the great pattern look, they will always do the same with the break down. Also looking at the ensembles it weakens blocking with the PNA but I do not see it completely disappearing. Remember if we have a PNA and STRONG blocking it will be suppression city. We NEED the blocking to be -1 to -2, NOT -4, -5.

Yup - I think Forky is going to be 100% correct on this one (he always stated would be after Christmas).

Actually ahead of 2010 in Fairfield, had an inch this storm was zero in 2010.

NYC = 49 EWR = 52 MMU = 55 ISP = 36 SWF = 67

Bridgeport in the water reported 0.8, so Fairfield had at least an inch.