EastonSN+

Thanks was looking at the ensembles and was pleased to see this setup. Deeper cold snaps will traverse the country with the SE ridge Popping in between. This volatility can lead to better overrunning setups.

Merry Christmas

This is our opportunity window.

One thing I have noticed on the ensembles this morning is that although the trough stays out west, we get repeated bouts of cold air. Having an intense cold lobe nearby in our hemisphere allows for these cold snaps. Easy for a trailing wave to produce. This pattern looks static throughout the entire run on all three ensembles.

This is what I am talking about for early Jan. LR GFS so NOT saying this exact storm will happen but early Jan an event or 2 such as this CAN produce light to moderate snowfall. If I was a gambler I would NOT bet on a ratter (my definition of ratter is less than 10 inches of snowfall for the year). Hell 11/12 I received 11.5 for the season including the October storm. Wide range since it's early 10 to 20 on the season.

Measured 0.5 on my deck. Looks the same on yard and driveway. Easton CT Thanks!

Measured on deck. 0.5 inches Easton CT. Shutout winter avoided. Next firs moderate snowstorm early Jan hopefully

I don't think the METS on the forums were wish casting when they said January held promise. The ensembles we're heading there. It just fell apart to some extent.

I still think we get our snow chances once the NAO relaxes and allows a few cutters to get the colder air east. This would allow for weaker trailing waves to produce. The NAO is hurting us here. Hey if we can snow in Feb 2018 when it was 70 the day before......

I look at it as a positive. The current setup is shredding all incoming storms. Let the AO NAO go positive to cutters can pull down cold air from west coast, allowing for weaker trailing waves to give us snow.

If u want to peg a snowless analog I think 01/02 would be closer as 11/12 was WAYYYYYYYY warmer for the entire continent. Completely different setup. This does bring up a point about snowfall though. Even though 01/02 was much colder than 11/12, I received only 4.5 inches of snow in 01/02 vs 11.5 in 11/12. Goes to show that a warm winter can be snowier than a colder one! One could argue that if we did not have the negative NAO we would have more snow by now, even if we had more 60 degree days as stronger cutters would not get shredded and weaker follow up waves can bring us snow like 2012. This year everything is shredded. In the end losing either the RNA or negative NAO will yield better snowfall results.

I would take 08/09 in a heartbeat. Above average snowfall winter but icy

Yeah I am on same page wrt snowfall and pattern progression, however to me in a La Nina following a potential snowless December this brings optimism to me.

As Anthony mentioned phase 7 in Jan is colder than December, therefore rather than looping to 5 and kissing January goodbye as well. They can make snow in phase 7. Also my query was pointed at the outlook, I was not asking why people are upset about what has already happened in December.

Why are a lot of people down on the MJO. Extended phase 7 in a La Nina is good news.

Yeah I would. 4.5 inches for the season was rough in 01/02 but worth it for 02/03

I feel like central Jersey northward March is a snowier month than December.

Yeah 8 is the money phase, but we can reach average annual snowfall if we keep hitting 7 with a predominantly negative NAO/AO. I think the biggest issue is lack of precipitation/larger storms. 2001/2002 may have had the same problem. Give me 20 inches of overrunning/swfe/"washed away by rain" snowfall by March 1st and I will take my chances in a Nina March any day.

As long as it keeps hitting 7 we will score.

That good?

We really need to get the MJO to 8 with this consistent RNA.

Get that ridge a little more east on the west coast and it's a perfect match.

Agreed he has not said anything incorrect, however would like to see him step up and and provide an opinion on the upcoming pattern change. I respect people who stick their neck out and provide forecasts/opinions (forecast). I asked him his opinion on the upcoming change will see if he responds.

Thanks Walt! Although the low floor is depressing to see.