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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    So this works. Compare this January to this February. Do not look at the average temps. Looks at the H5 and cold anomalies.
  2. EastonSN+
    Massive difference between no cold air in our continent vs. to our west.
  3. EastonSN+
    I don't know the percentage but they do happen. BROOKLYNWX, Dark Star or any MET, am I explaining 97/98 incorrectly? Wouldn't a pattern like this where the cold is in our continent better for snow than 97/98 where the entire continent is flooded by maritime air?
  4. EastonSN+
    February 2010 had cold air in Canada to tap into. In 97/98 the entire continent was scoured of cold air from the Nino pattern.
  5. EastonSN+
    If you have cold air in the CONUS, you can either have a cutter pull the boundary east briefly and allow for a weak trailing wave or changeover. When there is NO cold in the CONUS, at our latitude, the only way you can snow is by a massive bomb I'm the exact right spot. Let's agree to disagree.
  6. EastonSN+
    The reason this winter was more conducive to snowfall than 97/98 is the fact that we have cold on our side of the globe. Yes we failed to time a trailing wave etc. In 97/98 North America was scoured of cold air from the El Nino. You could (and did) have perfect coastal tracks in 97/98 however there was absolutely no cold air to tap into.
  7. EastonSN+
    The two windows I provided are better than any window that presented itself in 97/98, however the way this winter has gone 97/98 will likely finish higher.
  8. EastonSN+
    This window can work for front end snow for northern and eastern areas of the sub forum.
  9. EastonSN+
    This looks like the next window.
  10. EastonSN+
    So looking back in history, it seems that the two patterns that create winters such as this are strong Ninos or Ninas (conscious that there are other factors).
  11. EastonSN+
    1998 would have finished with 0.5 had it not been for that one late March event. That year felt far more hopeless than this one. In 97/98 we had a super Nino setup like January so there was no cold air in all of North America. Basically a warmer version of this past January.
  12. EastonSN+
    Thanks as always Don. So far the component that amazes me the most about this season has been the fact that we have not even had a fluke event. 01/02, 97/98 both had them in worse full season patterns IMO (striking out in December was what set this off and running). The fact that we had a moderate event in February 2018 in a sea of 70s and 60s shows how rare this year is. Moving forward, although the RNA will continue to dominate and boost the SER, there are 2 relatively small windows in the ensembles where we can get that one event. If we do not hit on either, I would have to put this winter as the most unique.
  13. EastonSN+
    See, this is how you ruin a blocking pattern. https://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/california-forecast-to-see-low-elevation-snow-17796312.php Nearly entire population of California expected 'to see' snow
  14. EastonSN+
    Don had a stat which showed that 6+ events were more common when the SD of the PNA was -1.0 or higher. This year the RNA overwhelmed the blocking. I would imagine the same for +PNA, where the closer you are to a SD of 0 the better.
  15. EastonSN+
    Thanks Don! I hope the weeklies are correct, however not sure what mechanism can dislodge/ weaken the RNA
  16. EastonSN+
    Don, I think you hit the nail on the head with the March 2002 outcome. Looking at the ensembles, the continuation of the RNA pattern domination seems to continue. Would you happen to have, or know where to locate, the March 2002 H5 map? I would like to compare to the projected H5 setup.
  17. EastonSN+
    In the image in my previous post, imagine if the la Nina forcing was weaker. You would end up squeezing the PV like an orange and allow the cold to move under the block. Instead the La Nina forcing is so strong the RNA is just too deep and you "link" the SER to the PV.
  18. EastonSN+
    Great analysis by CoastalWX in the NE forum. The NAO is actually pinning the piece of PV west. IMO we just need that RNA to weaken. Not disappear but weaken. However this year it's not happening. At least we are saying goodbye to la Nina next year.
  19. EastonSN+
    Great analysis by Brooklynwx from the MA forum.
  20. EastonSN+
    I disagree that CC has dramatically affected our year. It's a steady progression. 01/02 roasted and we may or may not break that winters temp profile. The fact is the deep trough out west is causing this year to be very warm. Are we a couple degrees warmer that 1980 sure. However I do not believe we hit a wall in 2019 where now we roast and this is now "normal". The center of the trough has been MAINLY west of there with mostly a SW to NE orientation.
  21. EastonSN+
    It was 2009!!
  22. EastonSN+
    I would welcome 90s in April as our springs recently have been horrific. We hit 80s or 90s a couple days in April in 2008. I remember I bought my first house that year and was painting the inside with the AC on. Was crazy.
  23. EastonSN+
    Yup. Watched TWC and they showed that although they were well above average in snowfall, the trough was actually west of them.
  24. EastonSN+
    I disagree but we can agree to disagree at this point.
  25. EastonSN+
    Thanks Don Think I am giving up on this year. That RNA being this strong has ruined our NAO, caused it to link up with the SER. We need to clean out the La Nina I believe.
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