EastonSN+

Thanks. Also blocking is not disappearing from what I see, it's just not as intense.

What's funny is December and March CARRIED 2017/2018. We did get the big storm early Jan and that whacky 4.5 inches that February between 70 degree days. Great winter.

Where I am December is like March, either great or a shut out.

No signs? Other than all ensemble guidance showing it and red taggers like Forky and Brooklynwx99 saying it will happen?

Has yes, would have avoided the panic in 2010 and 2018 as well! I just had 1.5 inches of snow and even the coast had an inch, already better than some good blocking periods this early.

Red taggers out there - will the good period not arrive? Percentage chance of not arriving?

Yeah but Bluewave is not saying it WON'T happen, hes just showing what has been happening. 2010, 2018 all had to wait an entire month with Rainers. I mean Forky literally stated after Christmas this whole time.

I remember the SSWE happened early Feb 2018 and it took a month for the payoff.

This happens every single blocking event. Everyone panics cause the models rush the good look. 2010 we had a massive cutter that brought down the Minnesota dome 2 weeks into the blocking patter and as Bluewave alluded to it took the entire month for the blocking to migrate west and clean up the PAC. Not saying this is 2010 and Forky said "Since" 2010 not including 2010. Question - has ANY red tagger stated concern that the pattern won't happen? I will definitely show concern if any red tagger stated that the good look may never happen or only last a couple days.

That's raises a good question, what was the best blocking period since 2010? For me thinking 1.) March April 2018 2.) February 2021 3.) February March 2013 4.) January 2016

This looks pretty darn good to me. Slight neg. NAO. Positive PNA. We don't want blocking to be that strong or yes will be cold and dry.

Remember just like models always rush the great pattern look, they will always do the same with the break down. Also looking at the ensembles it weakens blocking with the PNA but I do not see it completely disappearing. Remember if we have a PNA and STRONG blocking it will be suppression city. We NEED the blocking to be -1 to -2, NOT -4, -5.

Yup - I think Forky is going to be 100% correct on this one (he always stated would be after Christmas).

Actually ahead of 2010 in Fairfield, had an inch this storm was zero in 2010.

NYC = 49 EWR = 52 MMU = 55 ISP = 36 SWF = 67

Bridgeport in the water reported 0.8, so Fairfield had at least an inch.

Forgot to mention it was not a temperature issue for West and southwest, it was the storm was wayyyy out to sea so NE was just closer.

Yeah I had 9.5 here in CT. Good storm.

In March 2013 we had a long duration snow event. 4 to 10 west to east.

GEFS looks better than 6z in LR, blocking looks like it's re developing and trough still in east.

One important factor of the GEFS is this run has a slightly more east component. This could allow for a little back end snow (nothing like December 02 but maybe light)?

Oh Canada.

Forgot to mention, ensembles always speed up the breakdown of a pattern (just like they rushed the incoming pattern look).

Correct a monster too. 14 here I think central Park 16.