EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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I think Bluewave had a good post earlier showing SSWEs following low snowfall seasons. One thing to be cautious of when looking at the stats, and depending on ones point of view (seems to be split amongst the METS across the forums) is whether or not December was a true failure due to the pattern never really being "good", or "bad luck" where the second storm was so intense it essentially killed the third wave which had the most potential. Think December 2000, what if that storm was a few miles east? Then that blocking period would have been a complete failure, and this past Decembers failure would not have been as "shocking". So, long story short, it will all come down to how negative the RNA is vs. 1. The strength of the Blocking and just as important, 2. The LOCATION of the Blocking (same really could be said about the position of the RNA). NOBODY knows what will happen. We just have to let it play out. Hard to bet against the RNA in a Nina like this, but as we all know RNA is not as detrimental as it is December and January. As for low snowfall records, 97/98 was only saved by a fluke late season late March event. Please keep that in mind when ingesting and analyzing this season. The only difference so far is a late March fluke, which can happen in any season. If that fluke did not happen, then this is not historic, just a repeat.
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Vegas more snow than DC. Lol.
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What a year
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That Winter was so amazing that although we missed out on the bullseye on so many storms, we still ended up with way above average snowfall totals WOR!
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There goes our spring (no surprise).
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Yeah this will come down to getting into phase 8 or not.
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Just another point of view from the NE forum. Like to look at all sides.
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Yeah after 17/18 (and of course the above average snowfall of 20/21) we have been in a rough stretch. I firmly believe the PAC will change at some point. Until then we will need to get above average snowfall the way of 20/21.
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One thing I do like about the GFS is it seems to capture the heat island effect. Check out DC below. This is the positive snow depth change.
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Yes this is exactly where my head is at. The southern portions will continue to decrease YOY. Looks like next up for us is neutral. I think Don had a post a while back saying Philly and NYK snowfall has yet to be affected like DC and Baltimore. May take 10 to 20 years. I think as it progresses north it will slow, however I can see 20 to 30 years from now we are Philly as they say. Philly becomes the current DC. Etc. I do take comfort that my sister in Raleigh continues to get snow events every few years. When that stops it will mean anomalous setups are failing to the south, which would be the next progression to watch.
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Yeah 70 through 89 were definitely cold dry warm wet save 77/78. 90s were a furnace outside of 92/93, 93/94 and 95/96. I think we have to wait a while before we get another 1960s, 2000s 2010s setup. Maybe 10 to 25 years! I know, add some degrees for GW however while we will lose a number of snow events, when it does snow totals will be much higher (i.e. blizzard of 96 NYC has Phillys temps and instead of 22 NYC could get the 32 Philly observed. Obviously I am dramatically over simplifying a complex atmospheric change, however I am just not in the mindset of GW has ended winters as we know it. Not yet.
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Yeah, we are heading back to the 70 through 99 setup. We will get there again some years but consistently may have to wait a long time before it returns.
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Nobody was happy here especially not Danbury
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Danbury does not need this
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Danbury needs this
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I just performed a deep dive for the Danbury area. My conclusion is that Danbury requires 3 scenarios to snow (bullseye) 1.) Moderate Blocking. 00 through 11 had far more blocking episodes than 12 through now. They are too far NW for storms such as last January where the bulk is a long the coast and east (or 14/15). Also, they cannot have strong blocking or the December 09 scenario plays out where the moisture does not get far enough north. 2.) Coastal hugger. They DID score on a couple occasions, however the hugger, until a couple years ago, was mostly extinct. They did well during the massive upstate blizzard a couple of years ago, however the fact that we get so few of these now hurts that area. 3.) Overrunning events. They have elevation and are away from the coast, so they do fairly well with these. However, few foot plus accums happen during these events. I remember growing up in Norwalk in the 80s and 90s and whenever we went to the Danbury Mall there was always snow on the ground, and back home it was always barren. When coastal CT does well, generally Danbury does not. 12 through this year generally the coast and east have done well. This has led to the Danbury snow shortfall. I truly believe we are heading into a 70 through 99 snow drought again (started 19/20). If we continue to see huggers return, Danbury should make up ground while us coasties fall back to the 70 through 99 average snowfall. Now, I do not think CC will have much affect on the snow difference, for lost snow due to higher temps will be offset by larger snow amounts when it does snow. If I were to wager, Danbury's average will start to climb again while Long island/coastal CT sees the drought of 70 through 99.
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Not this
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This is what's needed.
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In the end we could not beat out the triple dip la Nina. At least we know the next time it happens we are breaking records!
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I am starting to think that we finally break the futility record this year. While ECMWF gets the MJO in 8, GEFS completely kills the wave in 7. I feel that the ECMWF scenario is the only hope.
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Are u sure you have the correct winter? I remember only one mixed event in 13/14, which was 12 inches followed by over an inch of rain followed by 1.5 inches. All the other storms were in the 20s and snow
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I remember having 58 on the year in 13/14 with the GFS showing a 16 incher in 5 days followed by and 8 incher a week later and another storm queed up. Then it all went south (literally). It 100% could have beaten 95/96.
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I am hopeful I can add a little to my season total at the very least. Currently I am at 1.5 for the year.
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See here is why we have to agree to disagree. I do not buy into our climate completely changed after 2018. I believe the warming is a steady progress. We are nowhere close to calling 17/18, 13/14 extinct. We will only find out with time.
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Take a 95/96 setup again. Now let's do 2 things. 1. We snip off the November and April 8 inch total. 2. We add snow to the mid winter storms due to higher ocean temps and fuel. With the above the record CAN be broken
