EastonSN+

Snow map so I know but just for fun, imagine if parts of North Carolina and DC area pull ahead of us in snowfall......

70s 80s and 90s were in large part trash for snowfall.

Imagine if we waste a strong Neg AO AND a January MJO phase 8/1 in the same season?

This monster. If it missed would have been our only completely perfect game. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1995/04-Feb-95.html

How much did you get in the November storm?

94/95. One massive snowstorm in early February. Complete shut out otherwise.

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2012/21-Jan-12.html Lol Eastern LI again.

IMO if this pattern persists it will be far more disappointing than 11/12. We did not strike out in a good pattern like this past December, and we had a 4 to 8 inch snowstorm January 12.

SN+ is heavy snow. SN- is light snow.

Time will tell I guess. What was the previous record for warm winters? Thinking it had to be 96/97 through 1999/2000.

If we want to be snowfall optimistic, just think that if December 2020 failed like this last December, then we would be in the exact same boat statistically (i.e Decembers with no accumulating snow) and that historic February would have still occurred. That's why while helpful, statistics do not always tell the full story. Same could be said about the December 2000 storm to a certain extent. Sure we may get shut out the rest of the way, but I doubt it.

Looks like the opposite of December on the west coast where the trough was in the SW and a ridge just off the coast. Also, the WAR retrograded west and is a SER (and a trough off the coast a bit out).

100% agree I think the current 5 year stretch is just a repeat of years like 96 through 2000 or 88 through 92. The bonanza we had 2000 through 2018 was more of a repeat of the 60s. Unfortunately, after the 60s we went through a terrible 30 year stretch for snowfall, save 77/78, 94/95, 95/96 and a couple other above average snowfall years. Global warming is real, but global warming does not change a day from 1950 from 32 to 62, that's a pattern driven phenomenon. In summation, we will have more great snowfall seasons, -4SD AOs will produce more snow in future Decembers, clippers will come back at some point etc. However, we may be heading into another tough stretch like 1970 through 2000 (though I hope not).

I mean what's the difference between this winter and 20/21? Why can't a February like 21 happen again? Like 20/21, we had a good December pattern. Only difference is we wasted this one where we scored on one event in 20/21. Isn't this progression more like 20/21 than say 19/20 or last year? NOT saying the progression=forecast as there are meteorological components and no two winters are exactly alike. However, why would someone automatically assume a 19/20 when we JUST had a good pattern in December?

From a phycological perspective, I think that since we had such an epic period from 2000 through 2018 this 5 year period startng with 18/19 has shook us. We are looking for climate reasons for this change, when in actuality 2000 through 2018 was the abnormality, not the current bad stretch. Look at the 70, 80s and 90s, bad stretches and years were the norm. Geez I remember a February in the early 90s we're we wore short sleeves to school on day that hit 70. The 60s were more comparable to this century with snowfall. Yes global temps are rising, but in no way are March clippers, December snow with a -4AO EXTINCT.

Yeah it definitely felt like a ratter. However overall a much better winter than true ratters IMO like 98/98, 01/02, 11/12 and 19/20. If this winter were to come close to shutting us out the rest of the way, 89/90 would be the best match. 01/02 was unique in that we had a precipitation issue. Ratter nonetheless.

Yeah that's March for you, high volatility.

I have to disagree, clippers tend to occur in colder setups. Also, we JUST had snowy Marches and April's in 18 and 19, a blanket statement like that is not correct. Global warming does have an affect, but to say a clippers would be rain now in March is crazy.

Must have been cold if we had clippers, more of a dry northern stream issue. I cannot call that year a ratter. Not like the others.

Yeah it was a March storm that was good. Monthly stats in here. monthlyseasonalsnowfall (2).pdf

You know what, 89/90 had snow in March so even that was not a complete shut out after the December good look. Central Park recorded snow each month that year.

Yeah I'm just a hobbyist, however it's rare to have a complete ratter when you already had one good pattern that same winter (we struck out on a 90 mph fastball down the middle). 89/90 is the only winter I can remember that went from a good pattern to a shut out pattern the rest of the way. 97/98, 01/02, 11/12, 19/20 were all shut out looks from December 1st onwards. Also as a lot have said blocking usually returns when it presents itself in December. Can we end up with an 89/90 repeat? Sure. However it's not the norm. OT. My personal lowest was 3.5 in 97/98 all falling in March. I am stuck at 1.5 so far (CT coast all had at least a half this year), I think eclipsing 3.5 this year is a safe bet.

Lol I have always noticed that. MA and NE thread are mostly looking for positives while this board tends to be negative (speaking about snowfall) Not sure why that's the case Last year, part of the MA (Delmarva area) had a historic snowfall season, maybe that part of the forum is carrying the optimism.

Negative PNA If we have blocking we can snow with an RNA. Without blocking it gets really warm.

Of all the ratters I have experienced, this one has been the most frustrating by far (obviously 3 more months to go). Other than 89/90, I do not remember having this little luck without it being a total no chance look like the others. December had one that was a bit too warm and only half the forum scored. One was too amped, northern stream and nw of us. One was too weak and SE of us. If the 2nd storm was somewhat weaker it could have allowed the 3rd wave to amplify. Sometimes it works out and we hit on all three, sometimes one. I would still take that December look again in a heartbeat.