EastonSN+

The 90s were very warm as well (as were the 1930s I believe). We are definitely warming as we are still emerging from the mini ice age, also influenced by human activities. That being said, all one has to do is look at the last few years and the snow events in NC, Virginia and the Delmarva to take solice that we are a long way off from not seeing good winter stretches anymore. Also, if we are in more of a SE ridge dominant pattern, a repeat of the 1980s would yield less suppression and perhaps an incredible stretch. I get that this is more of a temperature fear/discussion than pure snowfall. Maybe this is permanent, however I think we have to wait a number of years to determine as we have seen 10 years warm stretches before.

The ens finally corrected to the MJO phases 3 and 4.

We went through phases 8,1 and 2 too early in the season and now we are going through the warm phases. This is expected and not a surprise. The ens correct to the MJO phase. Nobody is FOOLED.

Maybe I am mistaken, however I feel as though a lot of board members are traumatized from 4 of the last 5 winters, and perhaps even think that somehow the global weather pattern changed for good after 2018. If anyone remembers the 80s and 90s, they will know that those patterns were just as bad, and yes we will eventually flip to a better pattern down the road. Who knows how many years but it will happen.

So the debate seems to be, is the SE ridge a result of the RNA and the storm pumping up the SE ridge, or is the SE ridge causing the storm to cut. My thought is, if we are heading through phase 3, wouldn't a RNA just cause the SE ridge to pump up?

The MJO is progressing through 3 and 4, so this is expected.

Wasn't the old map just showing a flat SE Ridge due to spread? It seemed odd to not have a SE ridge with a deep RNA like the old map was showing. I think the new map shows less spread and more of what u would expect with an RNA.

97/98 has been my fear all along. We seem to be in a multi-year period of west coast, central u.s. troughing which could be expected after the long 2000 through 2018 epic period. surprised this pac has not improved given the recent MJO forcing.

We will see it again down the road. May take a few years though.

This is a good sign for El nino forcing. Unlike prior years we look to be looping through the favorable phases. As long as we avoid an El nino like 97/98 we may be in good shape.

Of course, however he was not just referring to northern new England. Part of New England is just a few miles from NYC. That difference could have smoked DC northward.

Great sign for MJO

I think Massachusetts, but that does not matter. What he is explaining would affect the entire East Coast.

GREAT post by ORH wxman on why last December failed. Maybe we cash in this time.

It looks to be setting up that El nino MJO forcing loop at the current time.

Something will, I am sure this has happened before.

Same general issue from last handful of winters. Unfortunately may take a few years to get out of it. Still hopeful for this winter.

Impressive cold for Mexico!

Yeah one of those was above average snowfall.

Yeah, 1955 through 1969 looked like it was extremely snowey, likely like 2000 through 2018. It was a horrible 30 year period for snowfall in between. Not saying we are in another 30 lull, however we have to know that 2000 through 2018 was not the NORM, nor is this period. It changes. We will 100% see another period like 2000 through 2018 or 55 through 69 again, but I would not be shocked if this is our norm for a number of years, with good years sprinkled in. Although 70 through 1999 were terrible, 77, 78, 94 and 96 were tremendous.

Yeah history repeating itself. Its the west coast turn. We had our fun 2000 through 2018. 1955 through 1969 seemed really snowy too looking at the KU book. 30 year periods between great periods?

I feel like 1976 through 1980 was an extremely cold timeframe. Too young but my dad used to talk of it.

Last year's blocking failure was driven by an extremely deep trough off the west coast. That overpowered the block and not shocking. On the bright side an epic winter on the west coast with lots of rain and run-off for the reservoirs.

It will be our turn again. May take a while.