EastonSN+

Schools early dismissal. WTF!

The 90s are a better comp. IMO.

Let's give it time. When we stop seeing historic snowfall seasons to our south like last year in the Delmarva, or historic low temps like this year in Russia, then we know it's over. We can have separate conclusions and revisit in a couple years. IMO 2000 through 2018 was 1955 through 1969 with the bouts of blocking and east coast troughs. Now we are in a 1990s patter. Before the board explodes YES it IS WARMER.

I mean we still have until the MJO gets out of phase 3 to score something. Would not be surprised with a moderate event. How long does it take to get back to 8?

So far the Blocking has not returned as it typically does following blocking in December. I know we all expect it/fear if for April.

I hope we roast, none of this crappy rain every other day depressing setup.

I think we need more information. We will have 4 below average snowfall seasons in 5 years. If we get 1 above average and 1 average snowfall winter in the next 5 we will match the 90s Now, if we only get 1 average or above average snowfall winter over next 5, then we at least have some evidence. Also, if we go 20 years with less than 5 average to below average snowfall winters. The problem when correlating CC to snowfall is that we have had a wretched stretch from 1970 through 1999, so it will take a LOT to definitively correlate the two. Also who knows how CC will ultimately affect our snowfall chances. Some of those terrible 80s winters where all the snow was to our south may end up squarely hitting us. Now our 80s patter repeat could be historically snowy. To sum up, nobody at this time can make a definitive statement that the current (only 5 year) stretch is "the new norm". It's impossible to know. We need more time.

Looks like yet another pure rain event down here. Still at 1.5 for the season. Pathetic.

I won't feel comfortable till I see snow over long island

Your destroying me this season! White rain today stuck at 1.5.

But how do you know this is the case already? If this has happened numerous times in the past, for longer periods, how do we know? I mean if we go 4 more years and only one is above average? However no way to tell yet.

The issue I am taking is not that it's getting warmer, it's that I feel as though EVERY reason we don't snow or it's warm is ultimately attributed to warming. Two things can co exist. We CAN be warmer and we CAN be in a low snowfall period that has happened in the past. Why can't both be true?

Obviously everything happens for a scientific reason, however I view it as a "missed opportunity" when we have a favorable setup and we fail. Like last year when south of us got crushed. December where of the 2nd storm was a little weaker the 3rd would have produced.

2018 we had a historic SE ridge and had a good snow event between 70 degrees days. Let's get that back instead of a neg NAO.

It WAS good enough to produce. It didn't. It happens. Not all good setups produce.

That is not correct. You can have a good period not produce snow like you can have a bad period like Feb 2018 produce snow.

The most frustrating part is that the pattern HAS changed for a third time now, One was good and we were unlucky and blew it. One was a flood of PAC puk and no chance at all Now we are heading into a cold cutter cold patter. 97/98 was at least PAC puke 99%of the time.

Not sticking but white rain is better than clear rain.

I personally always felt that the 90s were a much better comp. Temp and snow season wise.

My hypothesis is that they do not expect much, so the current situation is not as jarring to them.

What I find funny are the different moods in different forums. NE and MA forums are mostly optimistic while this one is on the pessimistic side.

Yeah, but 0.1 is all that is needed.......

I guess, just to me if CPK gets 0.1 and misses the record or 0.0 and gets it, it's still just a crap stretch. I think the much much larger record is a full season under 1 inch.

I mean, does our view change if CPK measures 0.1?

FWIW CMC was a bit colder.