EastonSN+

Compared to 2001.

Courtesy and thanks to Benchmark.

Right, but we're all the other factors the same as well? i.e. PNA level, EPO level, MJO, et all? I feel that small factors/differences can make a massive difference in results. 2000 was one storm at the end of the month, if it was slightly west the amount would have been greatly reduced (obviously same with just east). The good news? We will find out over the coming years

I believe it did, however was using the potential that warmer Atlantic waters could have allowed for less suppression.

We shall see in the coming years if this rains true. If it is, winter as we used to know it is over. Isn't the Northern stream dominate in La Ninas?

Yeah I can see some rooting for it. Like rooting for the undefeated football season to occur again. It's going to happen again at some point. 97/98 made it to mid March! Maybe this time the fluke is avoided? I still think odds of a complete shut out is low due to duration and late season volatility. We have seen a lot of snowfall flukes over the years.

If I were a betting man, I would bet that we will have blocking that does not link with the SE ridge in December in the future, the warm Atlantic cycle has not made that impossible. Also, the warm cycle can help us as well, if the Atlantic was this warm in December 89 we would have been buried. You and I are the lucky ones on this forum, all of Connecticut has avoided a shut out. Stamford had 0.5 and BDR 0.8. Only LGA in NYC has avoided the shut out with 0.4.

I have to respectfully disagree. Yes the Atlantic is in a warm cycle, and may have affected one of the storms, however there was bad luck. For instance if the big storm was a little weaker, it would have allowed the follow up wave to strengthen more and potentially give us snow. If the northern stream wasn't so dominant (typical la Nina), the larger storm could have transferred to the coastal low and although hugging the coast and changing to rain, could have dropped a couple inches. I do agree that the pattern was not epic, where people were comparing to 2010 due to the fact that, per the New England forum, the PAC was not as favorable as 2010 AND not to mention the negative NAO was not as strong as 2010. However, it was a Decent setup that I would take chances with again any December. Last point, a warm Atlantic is not going to cause a storm to move from off the Delmarva to Canada. From off the coast to a coastal hugger or even an inland runner sure, but not a coastal to Canada.

That ECMWF run would be hilarious it it was true, DC, Philly and parts of the Delmarva getting accums before central park.

More likely, blocking returns as it statistically does following a neg. AO in December and we are rainy and chilly with temps 45 to 50. We are not lucky enough to get 60 and sunny consistently.

So for NYC Central Park and Kennedy have zero, while LaGuardia has 0.4. Although snowfall looks bleak for the foreseeable future, have a hard time believing that they are shut out the rest of the way. Almost as unlikely as not encountering a single thunderstorm in summer. 2 months left, with shorter wavelengths/high volatility in late February and March. What are the chances that even a February 2018/January 2012 fluke does not happen? How many of us would bet our live savings on a shut out the rest of the way?

1750 is a bit of an extreme example as that was still the mini ice age. However I get the point that it did not snow non stop in winters of the past.

97/98 must be the closest to this year wrt snowfall. Believe NYC did not get their first inch till mid March!

Yup. I remember it was always much colder in fall back then. Also, April's were so warm and nice it seemed. Now they are cold and rainy.

Last year the Delmarva had a historic snow season which was south of us too. It still snows south of us, it just always misses DC somehow (in the MA forum they mentioned that in La Ninas the storm track is always NE or SE of DC area). Also I grew up in the 80s and 90s. Yes there were cold years but 100% fact we had some really really warm winters too.

Yeah pretty sad (although I am loving the energy savings). I do feel like we were extremely unlucky in December like 89.

Yup, although we still had 1 minor and 1 moderate event later on that year, but the big storm potential was done.

Pretty bad stretch of winters starting with 18/19 with only 20/21 with above average snowfall. However we have been through this before (87/88 through 91/92, 96/97 through 01/02, pretty much the 30 year period from 1970 through 2000 with the exception of 77/78, 93/94 and 95/96). We will have another great stretch of winters again like the 1960s and this century, I just hope it's not another terrible 30 year stretch like before!

Yeah, also I think they put great weight into specific reporting stations like Bridgeport which reported a ridiculous 15 inches (official report from Fairfield next town over was also 27). Darien, Wilton, Westport, Norwalk and Fairfield all reported 22 plus yet the 15 by Bridgeport must have really pulled it down.

I think they weigh area coverage much higher than top amount of snow. 1993 and 1996 were extremely vast in area affected. 2016 was definitely right up there just a little less.

I always hated their method for creating these. For instance, SW CT had 27 for the blizzard of 96 yet they have us at 10 to 20. I actually saved the newspaper from it!

Baltimore Washington area but this is an article clip from the Blizzard of 1983 "After the storm, warmer weather moved into the area and the high temperature reached 52 degrees in Washington on February 15. For the next seven days, the high temperature was in the 50s or low 60s every day. The snow melted quickly and ten days after the storm, the only reminder that Washington had experienced a historic blizzard was the monstrous snow piles remaining in area parking lots."

I am still sticking to No Forky No storm (now I have Marley in my head).

Same 50% for GFS

If this was even close would have half the forum elated and half pretty miffed