EastonSN+

Thanks for this Don, It's incredible that we went from 2 strong la Ninas to a strong El Nino with no transitional period. Would have to believe that if this El nino was weak to moderate we could have had an above to much above snowfall winter with the warm water fuel currently in the Atlantic. Now I am hearing that we could be heading into a moderate to strong la Nina next year! This could lead to yet another highly disappointing winter. In trying to be optimistic, 95/96 was a weak la Nina following an El nino. Perhaps we can replicate to a certain degree? This does feel a LOT like the late 80s through the 90s (year after year of disappointment). Sorry to ask and no worries if it is unavailable, however do you have the mean snowfall for 1989 through 1999? Also, are you able to remove 1996 for comparison purposes, as that winter would have skewed the statistics tremendously. Thanks!

We had a trough mostly on the east coast from 2000 through 2018, now we are seeing regression to the mean. One question I ponder is a 50 year average.

The trough off of the west coast needs to migrate further west. If it does not then it's 97/98.

Yeah, I must admit I have been raising 97/98 wayyy too much. I BELIEVE that 97/98 had a stronger El Nino but I may be mistaken.

If I am not mistaken, we obviously need a track to the south/east of us (i.e. overrunning snow to rain is unlikely) as well as decent intensification and rates.

Alaska heights are better, as well as slightly better in Greenland. The more the trough moves west the better.

Good news.....

I am hoping that this is not the same course of events as 97/98.

What's funny is CoastalWX in the NE forum would tease with us with this (regression to the mean) following 2018. Not bragging, however living through the 80s and 90s gives me me confidence that this too will end, problem is that snow drought was 30 years between the epic periods of 55 through 69 and 2000 through 2018 lol.

Yup. However, these droughts are fairly rare when looking at the graph, so personally I am hopeful I do not experience one like this again. I was not alive for 72.

The last snow drought of this magnitude was in the early 70, so I am in the same boat as you lol.

In addition, I believe Don provided statistics showing that blocking usually follows "blocky" Novembers. If the aforementioned comes to fruition, we can be in for one wild ride! We really need a good snowy period for board moral lol.

Thanks! Surprised the 80s and 90s are missing lol. Don, is there a chart with precipitation anomalies? That would paint a picture of what drove the previous years snow drought. I believe 72 through 74 were very dry?

Kind of weak, however in the right phases.

The EPS looks a bit better than the GEFS. The trough off the west coast has migrated enough to commence pumping a West coast ridge. Also, Greenland heights are increasing. Finally, although our surface temps are slightly above average, they ARE cold enough if we have an intense storm with the right track.

That's funny Don. I know I keep raising the fear of 97/98, however so far we are realizing the same results (warm and rainy with Pacific air domination regardless of storm tracks/blocking). I may be oversimplifying, however, looking at the end of the GEFS Alaska has improved as well as the SW US and Greenland. I do not remember how the setup was that year, however I do not think we ever saw this improvement over Alaska that year. Therefore, holding out hope we follow an 82/83 or 15/16 winter rather than 97/98. At least improvements are on the ensembles even if it seems they are "pushed back".

I hate seeing the 1990s (3 of them) in there. I hope it doesn't take long to break out of this pattern, however it's only been five years so maybe a ways to go. There will be good winters mixed in.

I seriously hope not.

Welcome to the forum neighbor!!

Adding to my immediately preceding post, watching for the transition away from (a).

The trough moved slightly west in this depiction. Still needs a little improvement. The middle Atlantic can get a second snowfall with this look (even with above normal temps), as the storm track would be favorable and the storms seem to have intensity this year.

97/98 ish. Not calling that disaster for this year just reminiscing.

Better....

Still watching the GOA trough, as this is still the key feature in "flipping" to a snowier pattern. I did not account for the strength of this El nino (and anomaly position), which I should have since we just lived through 2015 lol. That being said, if one wants hope for snow visit the MA forum where there is positive changes in the LR modeling. Also, if the El Nino is rapidly weakening we may be able to extend the better looking pattern, rather than the shorter 1 month looks of 2016 and 1983. Although 97/98 had numerous offshore benchmark storm tracks with nothing but rain to show for it, that El nino was stronger so likely to avoid that outcome (again the GOA trough has to migrate west). Like the last two Decembers have shown (as well as 97/98), blocking cannot win alone (never could). Weeklies look good FWIW.