EastonSN+

To be fair, December WAS a good pattern (la Ninas are typically front loaded). The first storm did give snow to half the forum The second storm was wayyyy too intense and squashed our true potential which was the 3rd storm. From 2000 through 2018 all the luck was on our side, we were just due to strike out on a fastball down the middle.

This may be a shot from the ECMWF. Maybe our friend SE ridge can flex and give us a light event?

Yeah BUT la Ninas do typically do that. One thing I am keeping my eye on is this MJO wave. High amplitude phases 2 and 3 in a la Nina below.

I know it's a long range clown map, however would be fitting for a la Nina (cutter/SE slider)

We can score with that look. Cutters are a risk but not a shut out look.

Right, however why can't we get a weak follow up wave to provide some snow? In December the bomb was so intense the follow up wave had no chance and was squashed. If this cutter is weaker than we can score a follow up light to moderate event. Of course this is looking down the road without players on the field, however I do not think it's a shut out look.

All winter, as is typical in a la Nina, the northern stream low has taken over and has been dominant which is what really hurt December. Just using as an example see below, IF IF we can somehow get the southern low to dominate if just once....if the pattern is not broken in the below image the low over Michigan will strengthen. I HOPE this changes.

I am on the SW coast and just want to avoid my lowest snowfall total of 3.5 in 97/98. At 1.5 now so a tall task in this winter.

The last part of winter will likely come down to whether or not blocking returns given the strong blocking in December. Still nothing on the horizon.

You have been spot on all winter, but hope you are wrong.

Maybe, however I am looking at it as getting CPK a half an inch of snow. This is the best chance since December and probably not again until March. I think a half inch at CPK is definitely doable. The good thing about these setups are the multiple waves, which increases the chance for confluence. Just need one to strengthen as it moves east with a WEAK follow up wave. Not looking for 93/94, just half an inch for CPK.

It is definitely looking like an overrunning, boundary setup coming up. As always with these, will depend on which side we are on. Will be a sharp cutoff, and may be right through our region (of course latitude will help a ton). Here is the GFS just for example purposes.

EOW has had all the luck past 10 years (save Feb 2021 and Jan 2016 and Jan 2014 and Feb 2013). We need to revert back to pre 2012!

I may be way off on this, but I always thought the general rule of thumb is la Ninas are December and March for favorable snowfall outcomes, while El Ninos are Jan and Feb. Therefore, since Jan and Feb are peak for snowfall, El Ninos will out-snow la Ninas (that and an active southern jet brings more moisture with an El Nino). This winter, we have seen the northern jet and northern low pressures dominate, including December.

Just looking at all the modeling. Nothing shows it coming much further west.

Yeah, just looking at the teleconections and MJO lag gives us a small window of Neg. AO, Pos. PNA and MJO in favorable phases (with lag). After that, if the teleconections are to be believed, looking at RNA, Positive AO and warm MJO phases. Nobody knows how long that will last, but this year is a la Nina and so far la Nina results snowfall wise. Febs are usually warm.

It looks like we have a small window over next 10 days or so to get CPK some snow. Looks dicey after that. March is always a threat so it may end up like 97/98.

For Eastern LI folks. Courtesy of NE forum.

I wonder if this dip is considered the return of blocking from December before we go positive?

I agree that we would likely head to a typical Feb la Nina look. But of course that does not mean a shut out, just less than average February snowfall.

My bad stemwinder. Nice catch. Yeah do not remember the last one other than 2000. You would think there would be more with ridging in the Atlantic.

Yup in 2000 Raleigh NC had their largest snowfall in history while we changed to rain. Was more of a sidewinder than a SE slider though. My point is just there is a fear of the SE ridge. Now, if areas to the south of us stopped snowing and breaking records I would agree we are in trouble, but as long as we still have se sliders we can still snow.

Now if we want to talk about not looking at modeling and turning to our environment... One MET in the NE forum went against the models and said that since certain birds were still around it would be a warm winter. Amazingly he turned out right. My dad who is 82 and has seen many winters told me in December that he was not changing the oil in his snow thrower as he had a feeling it was going to be a dud winter. Has seen this before. This was back in early December. I am not a nature person, but makes you wonder.....

Seems to not hurt some areas to the south of us. Check this out from last year. It's more la Nina cutter or slider than SE ridge warming the entire east coast. https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/2021/02/27/delaware-has-new-daily-snow-depth-record-snowfall-greenwood-delaware-national-weather-service/6850318002/

Yeah we may have to wait a few years for the water temps to back off. SE ridge will remain but it's not unbeatable. Remember in December the SE ridge was beaten down by the historic "cutter" so much so that the follow up wave had no chance and slid off the SE Coast. If we cut a strong cutter (not as historic) the SE ridge can HELP us in pushing the follow up wave up the coast/provide more moisture. Remember this SE ridge did nothing to stop the Delmarva and Virginia, south of us, from having a historic snowfall winter last year. If nothing else, it's just a standard la Nina look with cutters and SE sliders. We just need the Cutter to be the right strength to all for the slider to gain enough latitude.