EastonSN+

Remember though we are talking February with cold air finally in the US. We have a far better chance of scoring in a weak follow up wave (January 2012) than we do now where there is no Arctic source. It doe not look like a "good" snow pattern, but it does not look like a shut out either. We NEED a strong cutter to make it happen .

Now, I know everyone will say that we have seen the RNA take over all winter so why expect this to change? Maybe it will now that it's February and we have shorter wavelengths

GEPS

EPS

GEFS

True BUT the GEFS went less hostile with a movement towards what the EPA was showing. 1. They both trended towards each other. 2. looks like a la Nina pattern with Blocking. Now, this can result in one of two ways, 1. The RNA is too deep and we are 50 to 60 and rainy, similar to last December. 2. The RNA is average and we have a few change over events. What I want, either 1. Blocking disappears and we have a nice torch of 60 to 70 weather with sun 2. We have enough blocking for some fun, especially with shorter wavelengths Let's see what happens

Hey if Central Park is going to break the record, THIS is how I hope it pans out. Just like last year and most winters we fail, the south racks up. Would be funny no? Delmarva the middle Atlantic buffalo

Maybe we can at least get the 84 corridor back in the game

Maybe the WAR gets this a bit further west? Eastern LI keep watching.

Lol I was just thinking this morning about what his expectations are for next year.

I wonder how many times the AO was -4 or lower in December that it DID NOT return later that Winter?

Lol was just thinking, this December was a typical 80s style fail and this January is a typical 90s style fail.

Agree. Also WRT your AGW comment, I feel like if I do not acknowledge AGW in a post about the past I ruffle feathers for some reason. That should never be the case though. I too believe that we are warming for a couple of reasons, but I disagree with some who believe we are in a new era and we are the next Miami (I hope someone does not feel the need to reply and argue my opinion). We will have another great period again in the future just hope we do not wait 30 years again

I think the 90s are a better comparison cold wise.

EXACTLY I lived through the 80s and 90s and the past 5 years (this included) reminds me 100% of those. I feel like 2000 through 2018 has warped the view of a lot of trackers who started this century. 90s had only 2 above average snowfall winters and a LOT of absolute torches. 80s had one winter, believe 87, where everything was south of us and we were cold, however I distinctly remember extremely warm months and almost never getting a snow day and complaining to my parents. In my mind, we are reverting back to the 30 year 70s 80s and 90s and it's a shock to the system. Probably how trackers felt after the snow blitz of the 1960s. So in my mind, expecting 2 to 3 above average snowfall seasons over next ten years. WE WILL have another great period like this century and the 60s, just hope we do not have to wait as long!

Go figure, the Atlantic is on fire yet the southern coast (last year Delmarva) or the cape/Eastern LI (continuously for years) benefit from it. We need an El Nino bad.

The WAR failed us on the third storm in December, watch it fail us now too. It either secures a rainy scenario or allows for an offshore track. This is just one of those winters.

Seems to be unbreakable this year for the most part. Just one of those years I guess.

I was just using that image as an example not specifying a particular storm. Coastal plain does get accums on the front end of these on occasion. Interior does better but I live in the coastal plain in CT and have received a coating to as much as 8 in similar setups. I believe our November 2019 storm was this type as well.

Yeah I kind of want to get the Central Park record out of the way. Finish what 97/98 couldn't. The only think I don't want is the overreacting that may come with it (i.e. this is the new norm, we should get used to it, winters like 14/15 are extinct, NY is the new Atlanta, etc etc).

Man, your area has been the luckiest over the past 10 years! Hope it happens.

IMO the most likely way for Central Park to score a half inch or more in a la Nina setup is something similar to the below. Not saying this one, however an overrunning event. Usually occurs with an RNA and some semblance of blocking (50/50 low for instance). A typical la Nina pattern in February WITH BLOCKING has historically produced snowfall in this way.

That looks like a January 1993 map.

Are you looking for a true City or suburb? Ridgefield is just south of Danbury and is real nice with good schools.

On the bright side, after years of drought and lack of snow PAC the west is having a banner snow year! They were way overdue.