EastonSN+

I agree with them, they have some really good experts there. Now, it was not bad luck as in timing as much as it was the trough in the West was too deep and overpowered the block. It's that simple. It was not the beginning of the end of blocking as we know it.

Isn't it just bad luck that the cold air is on the other side of the globe (not non-existent). It's only been a few years cannot say for certain that NAOs no longer work.

Agreed, although 92 was variable around this forum. Where I am in coastal CT that big noreaster was 6 inches of snow. The 90s in general were a dumpster fire for snowfall.

On thing that cracks me up. When I was growing up my dad used to always talk about how much colder and snowier it was when he was a kid. Now I am telling my kids how much snowier it was from 2000 through 2018. The cycle goes on.

My memory is probably off, but I remember Decembers being snowy in the 80s with snowless Marches. The 90s were mostly warm, early 90s snowy Marches snowless Decembers. Late 90s warm and snowless year round . The 2000s Decembers were great however it almost NEVER snowed in March, then the 2010s it flipped and we lost December and and gained March.

My barometer is November, as long as we keep getting snow events in November like we did a couple years ago, December will be fine for a while. On a side note I love warm weather, so I am enjoying September warmth while it lasts. I would gladly trade September for a decent April though. Nothing is worse than cold and rainy.

The ironic thing is that winter ended up being warm and snowless after December. Hated that winter.

Better than the other way around. Check out 2000/2001 on rays winter storm archive. First storm December 30th then off to a solid winter.

One reaction I do fear, and full disclaimer I do not think this will happen, is pegging GW as the culprit if we end up with a 97/98 scenario. A GOA trough too far east can flood the continent with warmth as was the case in 97/98. 2000/2018 was one of the snowiest periods in our history (and was the snowiest in history where I am), and the recent regression to the mean has sparked a GW fear as was the case in the late 80s through 99, yet we witnessed 2000 through 2018 afterwards. If we go 20 years with only 3 above average snowfall winters (1980 through 99) then I may change my stance. So far we have had 1 above average snowfall winter in the last 5. A ways to go. Finally I do see the warmer waters. However, are we sure they cannot cycle and cool like El nino/la Nina? Are we SURE this NEVER happened before? Do we KNOW the culprit? Are we NEVER going to get a volcano again to cool the atmosphere? Are we never going to be able to develop a way to slow/reverse global warming? Not arguing with anyone, just want to avoid definitives. Good news, MJO looks better this morning. Probably will slow however 20th through 25th would be perfect timing.

Yup, we are in that type of pattern, may take a few years to get back there.

Also MA forum, and this is very important as we have had a static ridge here for years!

From MA forum.

Ok noted and saved.

Right, and he is not agreeing with you on late January or February, he is keeping the door open for late December. So this does not agree with your statement.

Ok is this your prediction? Late January or February for our first snowstorm? You quote others, so now it's your turn to stick your neck out.

Even better that it slowed right? The 9th would have been too soon.

Agreed that the plots are correcting slowely, however wouldn't we want this progression since anything before the 20th is generally a bonus? I think back to the solidly above average snowfall winter of 2000/2001, with our first snowfall occuring December 30th. This IMO is a typical above average snowfall progression, not 96/96 or 02/03 where our first snowfall was November. Those years are RARE and only occured twice from 1970 through now.

I never understood why there was fear of clippers becoming "extinct". Yes, we witnessed very few, albeit only over a 10 year period. That timeframe is relatively short.

This is what we want, to reach phase 8 around the 20th. Better than the other way around. Not sure why anyone would melt for warmth (no pun intended) before the 20th.

The MJO looks to reach phase 8 around the 20th, give or take a couple of days. Perfect timing for the holidays!

Yeah hard to imagine as that was rare. I think we will see it again, or close to it (1 to 3 degrees warmer) sometime in the future. Will it be 10, 20 or 30 years who knows.

On a positive note, we are really really early in the snowfall season for the majority of the sub forum. 2000/2001 was a really solid above average snowfall winter, with our first snowfall occurred December 30th. Let's see where we are in a couple weeks when the MJO moves to 8.

I read in the MA forum that the GOA trough is in a bad position for us. Goes to show that not all ninos are good, and one variable like this can affect our chances. 97/98 is a good example. Hope it changes. If net we will get em next year.

Is this the reason why we prefer a central based el nino than an east based one? I think that is what made 97/98 such a warm and snowless El nino.

I just don't buy into the theory that the ocean temps have hit a tipping point and will never return. This all occurred after the 15/16 Nino per Bluewave, which is far too short of a time period for something this dramatic and static to occur. Also, if the Pacific is still seeing temperature swings from la Nina to El nino, as well as the North Atlantic changing temps why can't the IO? Is there something special about that ocean? I heard someone say that JB mentioned under ocean volcanos, although that activity would not last forever. If this were CO2, wouldn't all ocean temps warming accelerate at the same pace as the IO? Wouldn't la Nina's lose strength? I get it we are warming due to natural causes and human activities, however what proof do we have that something as dramatic as an extremely rapid increase in IO temps? Also what evidence do we have that only the IO will stay like this and not change?