EastonSN+

Thanks, however if the trough is less historic than December and the NAO is negative again wouldn't that beat down the SE ridge and allow for overrunning?

Our key to a successful February

Interesting looking at the teles. Looks to be heading to the Same December look of.... RNA -AO -NAO Now we failed in December because the RNA was at historic levels AND the NAO was very negative causing a meat grinder compression effect. Now what are the chances we get another HISTORIC RNA? I honestly feel like if the RNA is at a respectable -1 and the NAO is negative again we can actually score a decent amount of snow, especially in February. Also the MJO is going to be at a much lower amplitude as opposed to December which must have an affect. What is also very heartening is that timing wise we should be back at 8 for March (in a La Nina), which could lead to a grand finale. Being 100% honest, I feel pretty good for the chances of our area reaching annual average snowfall. Gonna go out on a limb and make my first forecast... January is somewhat disappointing, however we get the famous pattern change storm of a general 8 to 14. February surprises with 2 to 3 overrunning changeover storms due to the -NAO RNA combo. Approx. 5 to 10 inches for the area combined for Feb. March starts warm and we believe an early spring may occur. However due to phase 8 la Nina March a similar setup as 2019 occurs. 2 storms within a week. One 1 to 3 and the other 4 to 8. We end the season at or just below average for snowfall. What can go wrong? 1. We break all records and get another historic RNA 2. The currently modeled -NAO is positive. 3. MJO goes into the COD in liu of 8 in March. What can go right and we eclipse average? 1. We get multiple events in the next 2 weeks. 2. The February -NAO outweighs the weak RNA and we get large overrunning events. 3. We get March/April 2018 or 2015.

Can't this be a good thing though? I thought our area does well with a negative PNA in February.

I will be EXTREMELY PO'D if after all this all I get is a power outage to deal with.

Snowfall distro looks same as last snowstorm on GFS next system.

Hoping to reach 1 inch here in SW CT of snow sleet mix. Just want to pad the stats.

To add to my last post, not saying we get shut out in Feb. As long as we keep the RNA at say -1.

Ensembles (GEFS and GEPS) look good however GEPS breaks down the look about the 27th while GEFS looks like it's starting to at day 15. Hopefully we get one if those great pattern change storms. This good stretch hit the minute the MJO hit late phase 7 and now 8. Looks to move to phases 6 and 7 again. Will probably get to 8 again for March for a grand finale.

Ensembles (GEFS and GEPS) look good however GEPS breaks down the look about the 27th while GEFS looks like it's starting to at day 15. Hopefully we get one if those great pattern change storms. This good stretch hit the minute the MJO hit late phase 7 and now 8. Looks to move to phases 6 and 7 again. Will probably get to 8 again for March for a grand finale.

Technically they say two to 4 now (they upped it) but I doubt it.

NWS says I get no accumulation at all, starting as a rain snow mix. LR looks good!

Hey - last time we baked in February (2018) we had a 4.5 inch snowfall between 70 degree days followed by the snowiest March/April pattern of all time! Let's do that again.

Agreed disappointed with the ensembles.

Not a fun GFS run. Kind of dry with a couple clippers. Will probably change.

In all honesty I think we do good in March. We are getting this cold stretch the minute the MJO hit phase 8. The EURO has the MJO gout back to phase 6 and 7 right as the weeklies flip. Beyond that it looks like it's heading back to 8 in time for March. Therefore we should get another stretch like this. Also yes, does not mean we can't score in Feb as we have scored in much worse like Jan 12 and Feb 18.

I had more snow in 11/12 than I do so far this year. Brutal.

Hope March rocks!

We get crushed in March a lot. 2018. 2019.

Yup this one is pretty well modeled this far out. TBH would rather it go out to sea than get flooded with wind.

GEFS looks good to the end. Only negative I guess is the western ridge keeps migrating west to off the coast at the very end. Not too worried as if we do go back to phases 6 and 7 perhaps we can get back to 8 at the start of March.

Yeah already punting here in SW CT. Looking ahead, hoping for more events while we are in phase 8.

Just going by the events of the early 90s. Had this setup and usually was 1 to 3 followed by rain. The latest EURO snow map looks exactly like what I saw back then.

This looks like a 1 to 3 followed by heavy rain for me. Meh. Focusing on the Long Range now.

Still looks like March 1994. More interested in the LR at this point.