EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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I believe the Cleveland superbomb primary low made it further north than the primary low depicted on a lot of the ensembles. If the primary low remains inland BUT never reaches our latitude before kicking east with a high to our north......
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I saw this on the individual ensembles where the mean is misleading due to the high spread/multiple lows. I do have a question, if the coastal low occludes/vertically stacks SW of us never reaching our latitude, what would that mean for precip types? In the Feb 2010 storm, when the storm occluded my area switched to snow after a full day of rain and ended up with 8 inches.
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00/01 was a really good above average snowfall winter as well.
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That was so close to the big one on the GFS.
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This is what makes weather so great. Nuances that can be the difference between a monster snowstorm or wind driven rain. Keeps us tuning back in again and again. Love it.
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Preliminarily ... a medium impact partial Miller B, Friday
EastonSN+ replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Looks like the typical snowfall distribution from my childhood. Every single storm "snow will fall well north and west...." -
Where I was had nothing but dustings. This year already at 1.5
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Hey, if the fact that we only had one minor snowfall event so far is depressing some, just think of how bad 2010/2011 and 00/01 we're, we had not snowfall yet in either of those winters by this date!
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Oh God I hope 12/13. Solid above average snowfall winter with a great February and March. I would not worry about 01/02 that was really really dry. The entire setup is different. 12/13 is actually fairly close.
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Or we have a la Nina like 2 years ago and we are above average!
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And one of them, 2 years ago, was above average snowfall with a monster snowstorm.
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I mean we just had 20/21 which was above average. We just had bad winters 3 of last 4 years. We had 7 below average snowfall winters in the 90s with 4 in a row at the end with endless warmth. I guarantee we WILL see another 01/02, 13/14, etc. It's all just patterns/cyclical. May they be a half a degree warmer, of course, but they are not gone.
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Which guidance looses blocking?
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Lots of great storms, but I think 2010 to 2019 actually had higher accums or at least equal.
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If this look verifies WOW for NYS!!
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Agreed. I think our northern suburbs can do really well with the 23rd storm as the air mass ahead will be a little colder. After this storm the Arctic is unleashed. I really feel that suppression will be our biggest concern after Christmas
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Would like to see the MA get hammered even if we flip from snow to rain. I think the 70s and 80s had a lot of these (stemwinders). I think the last one was January 2000? Becoming extinct like the clipper. I know I know 10 to 1 240 hour snow maps but using for illustration.
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After Christmas was the forecast, that storm is before (Although this one has a higher likelihood of starting as some snow). Steps.
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This is what all the models are showing now so technically not a cutter.
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Exactly, like Forky said after Christmas the whole time, anyone should have known that the earlier good looks were just the models rushing things like they always do. Just like 2010 and 2018 where it took a month.
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Is it an actual cutter if the primary never goes over us and redevelops south of us then moves just underneath us?
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Yup, until an actual red tagger (this is literally their career) states concern I would not.
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Haha no. Not one ted tagger has stated any concerns in the New England or this forum.
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Which is what Forky forecasted the whole time, after Christmas is when all the fun starts. Models just rushing everything like they always do. Just because models rushed the look does not mean it's not going to happen.
